LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Hmm, Graves got a bit more than he estimated earlier. Dietzel was the loser here. He opened the quarter with his high-profile kickoff and made the most media/speech appearances; $97K isn't much to show for that and he also spent more that he took in.

Eh, as diverse as the district is the bulk of it is in one media market. Just from looking at these numbers now, you can't tell how much appropriated for the primary and what for the runoff.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The fundraising numbers for Harris were weaker than I thought. I only raised  $400K; I thought it was $800K (his CoH).

NC-07: White raised $359K but burned $201K.

NC-12:

The main beneficiary is Malcolm Graham, though this may give George Battle an opening.

Yep:

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More NC-Sen: Hagan taking a hint from McCaskill? The MajorityPAC's latest ad buy targets Tillis.

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More NC-Sen: For your listening delight, Buzzfeed has more of Brannon's greatest conspiracy hits.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The NRA is running a brief (15-second spot) doubling down on its support for Tillis. Brannon should be trying to get his gun endorsement groups to coin up as well.

More NC-Sen: Is Harris the most electable conservative? The crux of the argument is that he leads Hagan by the most (4-ish points). Still, as Tillis has shown, the less 'generic' the Republicans get, the worse they fare. Of the three leading Republicans, Harris is the most generic. True, he's proving to be no Akin, but given his glaring social conservatism, I think a gaffe or two would be likely.

NC-03: I'd still rate it Lean Jones, but the ad barrage against him is starting to worry me. Griffin is getting last minute aid from more investment banking big wigs running ads for him.

NC-06: Idk how I missed this, as its been out a week, but we actually have poll numbers. Normally, polls with 50%+ unsure should be discarded as junk, but Baby Berger looks poised to break 40% as no one else is cracking double-digits. The pollster was Tel Opinion Research, which doesn't seem affiliated with any of the campaigns.

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Speaking of Baby Berger, he got another endorsement from Mark Meadows. 'Anyone else wanna trade these two for Coble and Shuler back?

NC-12: This is a very good profile on George Battle. With stronger fundraising than Graham and the recent endorsement from Smuggie Mitchell, I can see him making a much stronger showing.

LA/NC-Sen: With the ACA's polling trajectory on the uptick should Democrats go further in embracing it? Landrieu's first ad was about the ACA, the focus was on her efforts to fix it. Hagan's approach has been pretty lukewarm. She's highlighted women's health issues and criticized the regime in Raleigh on the Medicaid expansion, buts thats about it.

I think Begich's last ad was pretty good, where he featured a woman who benefitted from the ACA. Democrats should elsewhere should try that. In fact, right in NC, I think Pat McHenry is making it easy for the Dems. He had this to say about those fringe ACA enrollees:

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LA-05: For the latest development in the Vance McAllister saga, one of his staffers (the scoundrel that leaked the video in the first place) has resigned.

LA-06: Businessman Craig McCulloch (R) raised $133K, though the bulk ($100K) was self-funded.

[windjammer]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/democrats-meddling-in-north-carolina-republican-primary-20140416
Hehe

[Miles]

LA-05: Wow, we've got polling for this race. The most important thing here is that, my uncle, Chris Hazel, beats McAllister in a runoff!

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LA-Sen: Ugh. Keep Louisiana Working, a conservative front group, has a counter-ad running about Landrieu's 'committee' appearance in her last ad.

This really bugs me. I don't know why the Landrieu campaign didn't just use the freakin' original footage. There was no need to change it. The LAGOP went to great lengths in scrutinize every aspect of her first ad. Why would the Landrieu campaign expect anything different this time!?

 It feels like its been like one step forward, two steps back this last week...

[publicunofficial]

LA-05: Wow, we've got polling for this race. The most important thing here is that, my uncle, Chris Hazel, beats McAllister in a runoff!

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LA-Sen: Ugh. Keep Louisiana Working, a conservative front group, has a counter-ad running about Landrieu's 'committee' appearance in her last ad.

This really bugs me. I don't know why the Landrieu campaign didn't just use the freakin' original footage. There was no need to change it. The LAGOP went to great lengths in scrutinize every aspect of her first ad. Why would the Landrieu campaign expect anything different this time!?

 It feels like its been like one step forward, two steps back this last week...

IIRC, it's illegal to use actual footage of House/Senate sessions in political ads.

[Miles]

^ Ah, right. That slipped my mind.

[Miles]

Finally, something freakin good for Landrieu. Buzzfeed dug up an earlier ad of Cassidy where he supported a state healthcare exchange. Hopefully Maness can get something out of this.

[RogueBeaver]

McAllister has 8k COH.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: With the Keystone XL decision delayed, many Democrats in support of it, led by Ladnrieu, are venting their frustration.

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[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Progressives not thrilled with Hagan?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

NC-Sen: Progressives not thrilled with Hagan?

I don't understand, I'm all for being progressive/a liberal/whatever, but what do they expect from a Democratic senator from the purple state of North Carolina??

[Miles]

I've sparred with these true left purists in both states and they annoy me to no end. She supports Obama on all the bread and butter issues. You're not gonna elect a freakin Bernie Sanders from a 48% (or 41%) Obama state.

And as I've said a billion times, she's just not one of those candidates that evokes a particular sense of excitement.

The group that swung the hardest against Dole in 2008 was suburban, educated moderates in places like the Triangle and outer Charlotte. Those are the types Hagan needs to focus on keeping. As the article said, the NAACP (and Planned Parenthood) has been doing some pretty extensive registration efforts since the last legislative session. That will help in the 'base' voters.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I've sparred with these true left purists in both states and they annoy me to no end. She supports Obama on all the bread and butter issues. You're not gonna elect a freakin Bernie Sanders from a 48% (or 41%) Obama state.

Learn from the tea party!! I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the only reason Democrats even have a senate majority is because lefties aren't primarying people and proceeding to lose in general elections. Technically Republicans should have seats in CO, NV, ND, MO, IN, and DE if they had nominated stronger candidates. And that would be the majority.

[IceSpear]

I've sparred with these true left purists in both states and they annoy me to no end. She supports Obama on all the bread and butter issues. You're not gonna elect a freakin Bernie Sanders from a 48% (or 41%) Obama state.

Learn from the tea party!! I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the only reason Democrats even have a senate majority is because lefties aren't primarying people and proceeding to lose in general elections. Technically Republicans should have seats in CO, NV, ND, MO, IN, and DE if they had nominated stronger candidates. And that would be the majority.

You're not preaching to the choir, actually. Many of the leftists here think that the Tea Party tactics should be duplicated. I recall one even saying he admired Cruz for shutting down the government and wished Democrats would use the same tactics.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I've sparred with these true left purists in both states and they annoy me to no end. She supports Obama on all the bread and butter issues. You're not gonna elect a freakin Bernie Sanders from a 48% (or 41%) Obama state.

Learn from the tea party!! I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the only reason Democrats even have a senate majority is because lefties aren't primarying people and proceeding to lose in general elections. Technically Republicans should have seats in CO, NV, ND, MO, IN, and DE if they had nominated stronger candidates. And that would be the majority.

You're not preaching to the choir, actually. Many of the leftists here think that the Tea Party tactics should be duplicated. I recall one even saying he admired Cruz for shutting down the government and wished Democrats would use the same tactics.

Haven't been around here long, and haven't seen those comments. I meant more so to Miles specifically that I know he agrees with me. I just don't understand how anyone can argue that Dems should do the same thing when it's so blatantly obvious it hasn't worked for the Tea Party.

[Joe Republic]

Let's hope the Democrats' Akin strategy pulls off in NC... though it would certainly help if Brannon keeps his mouth shut until the primary. 

[Greg Brannon] Refused To Say Whether 9/11 Was Inside Job

[SPC]

Let's hope the Democrats' Akin strategy pulls off in NC... though it would certainly help if Brannon keeps his mouth shut until the primary. 

[Greg Brannon] Refused To Say Whether 9/11 Was Inside Job

Was Brannon living under a rock during the 2010 Texas gubernatorial primary?

[RogueBeaver]

Cook moves LA-Sen from Leans D to Tossup.

[IceSpear]

Cook moves LA-Sen from Leans D to Tossup.

Overdue.

[Miles]

Link to the debate streaming.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Woody White is now on the air in the Raleigh market attacking Rouzer for being a Pro-Amnesty Republican. He has got another one that seems to be just him introducing himself.


I also saw an ad that shocked me. One by Keith Crisco attacking Clay Aiken as "No Show Clay" for not showing up to the board he was appointed to deadling with special needs kids. Looks the Dem Primary for NC-02 is going to get dirty.

[Miles]

^ Yeah the Raleigh market is pricey too. White is really going big or going home at this point.

Yes! Crisco has thrown verbal/subtle zingers Aiken's way. I'm actually really surprised he's gone this negative now. Its certainly getting nasty.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When asked which country is the bigger threat between Russia, China, and Iran, all the candidates said "Russia."  I guess Iran is no longer the bad guy it once was.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Getting on honest answer that with Russia dominating the news, from a politician is near impossible. They are just going to go with the one that is blowing stuff up today on the evening news.