LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

'Pretty long digest as its been a while since I've put one together!

NC-Sen: ICYMI, there was a debate last night with another set for tonight. Overall, there weren't any serious quarrels/meltdowns and it wasn't a game changer by any means.

The trend that emerged: Brannon would contrast himself to Tillis (by quoting the Constitution or staking out the farthest right position) and then Tillis would bash Hagan. A theme in their exchanges was the battle of gun endorsements. Tillis has the NRA in his corner but Brannon pointed out that the 'more conservative' Gun Owners of America (and one or two others) back him. Tillis also brought up his endorsement by the NRLC, but Brannon's background as an obstetrician neutralizes that somewhat.

Grant had a solid performance and I thought she was the most specific when it came to actual policy. She also can across as the most genuine, IMO. I know this is cliche as hell, but she can probably connect the most with the 'average voter.' In her closing statement, she cast herself as 'true, real leader.'

If I had to pick the worst performer, I'd say Harris. He didn't have any gaffes, but was pretty bland throughout. I know he's had a lot on his mind recently (with the death of his father last week) and I certainly sympathize with him, but I think he can do better. Look for him to play up his socon credentials in the next debates.

NC-02: We have ads from all three major candidates here. The link is to the one Yankee and I were talking about. Perhaps taking a hint from Nikki Haley, Crisco is going full-negative on Aiken. Aiken missed all the meetings for a commission he sat on for special needs children. The commission was under George W. Bush; Aiken even touted it in his campaign announcement video.

Akin has his own ad running. Its an abbreviated version of his announcement video, which was very well-received.

Finally, Ellmers is also up on the air. She mentions her efforts to repeal and replace the ACA. As she's favored in the primary, its a bit odd to see her spending on ads beforehand, but I guess insurance is good.

NC-03: Very interesting outside spending here. The Koch Industries PAC gave $5K to Griffin while AFP has run ads for Jones.

NC-06: The Democrat, Laura FJeld is (I think) the first candidate here to go up with an ad. Its a biographical spot focusing on her history with education issues.

NC-12: As you would expect, all the Democrats support raising the minimum wage. The difference is a matter of the degree:

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Alma Adams went after Brandon on his support for the GOP's school voucher plan. I'm not counting in Brandon making the runoff, in part because his support for vouchers has been an albatross for him the entire campaign.


LA-Sen: Cassidy says if the race goes toa runoff, world leaders will be watching LA, one of the most notable being Putin. If I didn't know any better, I'd say Putin would want Landrieu to lose, on account of Russia designating her for sanctions. Cassidy has a different take:

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If the LAGOP is smart, they should be trying to bribe the Russian government into adding Cassidy's name to the sanctions list

More LA-Sen: Not one to run from here record, Landrieu continues embracing the ACA, specifically the Medicaid expansion. Proponents are pushing for a statewide referendum, which the legislature is set to consider this week. If nothing happens, the (popular) issue will still be on the table for Landrieu to push. One of the biggest risks for Cassidy here is that Democrats will be able to tie him to Jindal.

More LA-Sen: Sugar may again be an issue here. The feds are investigating reports that Mexico illegally sold sugar to the US at below-market costs, and thus hurting farmers in LA. If this gets more attention in the press, I'd say Landrieu is the beneficiary, as the sugar issue helped her beat Terrell in 2002.

LA-Sen/LA-06: The Tea Party Express will be hosting a rally for Maness and Dietzel this week. I was considering going to 'cover' this, but I've already heard them each speak and I don't feel like scraping the Claitor sticker off my car ('ya know, so they wouldn't identify me as an intruder ).

[windjammer]

I'm not sure this poll is relevant. Landrieu was unpopular 1 month ago.

[moderatevoter]

This poll seems to have a large amount of 2012 non-voters, and those who voted seemed to favor Obama. I think Hagan-Tillis being 42-40 sounds plausible, but her approval looks too high, disapproval too low. Landrieu's 42 actually seems okay, but it's irrelevant if they didn't poll the run-off.

[RogueBeaver]

I trust Pinsonat and PPP 100%.

[moderatevoter]

The numbers in NC and LA seem about right, but AR, I do not see Pryor up by 10. Around 2-3 would make sense, but not 10.

[Miles]

We'll Landrieu will obviously have a bigger lead than Hagsn if you're comparing a jungle primary to a general election.

Those are the best approvals I've seen for her in a while, which would be good of true. 42% is a bit low, but the undecideds are high all around. A runoff test would have been nice.

[windjammer]

In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

[Miles]

In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno

[windjammer]

In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno

I already knew the answer, but could you be more precise please?

[Miles]

In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno

I already knew the answer, but could you be more precise please?

- Crappy fundraising
- No geographical base
- Little appeal to independents
- Would almost encourage some estblashnent Rs to endorse Landrieu it stay quiet
- Mostly untested as a serious candidate and might be gaffe-prone
- Suggested he'd vote against Katrina aid on grounds of principle
- Easy for Landrieu to define

[windjammer]

In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno

I already knew the answer, but could you be more precise please?

- Crappy fundraising
- No geographical base
- Little appeal to independents
- Would almost encourage some estblashnent Rs to endorse Landrieu it stay quiet
- Mostly untested as a serious candidate and might be gaffe-prone
- Suggested he'd vote against Katrina aid on grounds of principle

No chance he gets the run-off unfortunately?

[Miles]

No chance he gets the run-off unfortunately?

If conservatives are still lukewarm on Cassidy and the tea party makes a major push in this race, I could maybe see it. Still, its doubtful.

One benefit Maness has is that his primary is last. If the tea party's Senate candidates go down in earlier primaries, groups like the SCF and Madison Porject could try to claim a win here by ramping up support for Maness

[Miles]

NC-Sen: One of the key counties to watch in the general election will be Guilford (where Greensboro is located); Hagan rep'd a State Senate seat there from 1998 until winning her Senate race in 2008. Normally, the county is pretty firmly Democratic, with Obama taking 58%-ish twice. Burr snagged it 50-48 in 2010, but he has personal strength in the Triad and had a good environment. If Hagan is under 55% there, thats likely a bad sign for her prospects elsewhere.

More NC-Sen: Though Brannon tried imply he had its endorsement, the Catawba Valley Tea Party will be supporting Tillis.

LA/NC/AR-Sen: Are southern Dems less vulnerable than the CW indicates? Nate Cohn makes the case. One good point he makes is that  most Republican Senatorial gains in the south have resulted from open seats (think of the 2004).

He gives Manchin, Nelson and McCaskill as the most recent examples. Good analysis overall, but all three races are a bit different from the ones this cycle in the south. Manchin has unique personal appeal, Nelson has an Obama state and McCaskill had Akin.

LA-Sen: The damn AFP bastards have another ad against Landrieu. AFP has reserved time in LA, MI, and NH.

NC-Sen: Grant only raised $16.5K.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Grant's only good part of the debate was the closing, and it was barely mediocre. She should have emphasized that she is the only candidate who cannot be distracted from the key issues by legislative bs, business dealings and for Harris, his Amendment 1 campaign. She could have done much better on the pre-existing conditions question, especially once she referenced her son I think, the lost potential was obvious. She needed a standout performance and didn't get it.

Of course her message was nonexistant and lacked the necessary depth. They all sucked on their immigration responses, falling for the deport them all trap, perhaps they think it safer then enforcement by attrition.

I think Tillis was the best performer as he was the only one to really make a case against Hagan and he cast his legislative record as positive. He did basically tell the coast that they were on there own in dealing with rising ocean levels, so expect that in Hagan's ads. I think Harris did second best. Combined with his advertising, I think Tillis-Harris runoff, is more likely now then it was maybe a week ago. Still two weeks to go though.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: SUSA primary poll.

[Miles]

^^ Why you no post the results!!?

Unpacking it, SUSA polled Republicans who watched the debate or are were familiar with it.  

Support going into the debate:

Tillis- 51%
Harris- 21%
Grant- 10%
Brannon- 18%

Support after the debate:

Tillis- 49% (-1)
Harris- 13% (-8)
Grant- 9% (-1)
Brannon- 26% (+8)

[Miles]

The debate tonight went by really darn fast. Overall, I'd say its effect was minimal. There were two main things I noticed:

1) As the SUSA polls shows, Harris was the loser after the first debate. His performance tonight was better, as he looked more confident. There was also a question about religion and politics which I think he did well on. This should help him recover in the polls, or at least stop his slippage.

2) There's no question Tillis is looking past the primary. He hammered Hagan throughout the debate on issues like immigration and the environment whereas no one else mentioned her. Logically, it culminated in his closing statement, which he mostly spent contrasting himself to her. I'm not sure if the other candidates should start to discuss her as well. If they did, it would probably give Tillis more credibility, as he would have started that trend.

There wasn't much time for Brannon didn't go into his usual (verbal) firework show of quoting articles of the Constitution, but he worked it in where he could.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: From WaPo's Reid Wilson. Crossroads dumping $500k of pro-Tillis ads.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: This is a really great resource. It lists every expenditure for every ad in every federal race in NC this cycle. Definitely something to bookmark.

More NC-Sen: I've given my take on it already, but ICYMI, there was (another very short) debate last night. Basically two things sum it up: 1) Tillis is essentially using these forums as practice for when (if) he debates Hagan 2) after a bland start, Harris is getting some mojo back.

More NC-Sen: Speaking of Harris, earlier this week he got help from perhaps his most high-profile supporter. Huckabee headlined an event for him.

NC-02: This maybe why Ellmers was running those ads. The Cumberland (Fayetteville) County tea party unanimously endorsed her opponent, Frank Roche. Still, Cumberland County makes up about 20% of the district and (as far as I know) not many such groups have been as eager to dump Ellmers.

NC-06: This is a good overall look at the crowded Republican race. I won't try to summarize.

Also, Baby Berger gets another establishment endorsement from Patrick McHenry.

NC-12: A battle may be brewing in Charlotte for the Democratic nod. Specifically, political novice George Battle is doing very well with local endorsements, despite Malcolm Graham's experience. Various member attorneys and pols are backing Battle citing his potential in Congress and record in school/medical administration. This should help neutralize any criticisms of his political inexperience while raising name rec.

While the Charlotte candidates are duking it out, State Rep. Alma Adams of Greensboro has been solidifying her stature. She has a 3:1 CoH edge over Graham and is backed by EMILY's List.

LA-Sen/LA-06/WATN? Proponents of the ACA Medicaid expansion had a hearing today at the capitol. The bill was from Sen. Ben Nevers (D) which would have put the question of the expansion on the ballot. One of the most notable people who testified for it was former Sen. John Breaux. Breaux was (is) very well-respected and gave an impassioned testimony. Still, the committee deferred (effectively killed) the bill on a 6-2 party-line vote.

One of those voting to defer was Claitor. Honestly, it kinda made me rethink my support of him. Still I'll probably stick with him because he's more independent than the other Republicans running in CD6. As for the Senate race, this keeps the issue fresh. Landrieu said that she plans to make it an issue.

LA-Sen: Though they usually support Republicans, major corporate donors are largely split on this race. They want an GOP majority, but will acknowledge Landrieu is (was) an ally on some important issues, such as the Bush tax cuts and the Keyston XL.

LA-06: Good profile of Graves from the LSU paper. Like Dietzel, Graves is younger. While Dietzel is running as the unabashed outsider, Graves is emphasizing his Washington experience:

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I'd say Graves would be my second choice in the Republican field. Coastal issues are important to the state, specifically the erosion rate; with his background in that, I think he could be in a position to really do some good.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-3: Hamby on the race. Miles, what do you think will happen there?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was wondering how Roche was doing. He did well in the forum where Ellmers was a no show on WRAL's on the record. He did far better on immigration then did any of the Republican candidates in the debate for Senate did, for instance. It is easy to see why Ellmers skipped it.

[Miles]

^ Never thought about comparing them, but I wonder who ends up doing better, Roche or Griffin. Griffin is better funded but Roche is running against a stronger incumbent. My guess is still Griffin.

NC-Sen: One of this thread's old favorites, Tony Perkins, will be hosting an event for Harris. No word on specifics.

More NC-Sen: Tillis is up big in fundraising over the GOP field. He has the advantage of donors like the Koch PAC and Rove. The other Republicans have gotten mostly lower-amount individual donations plus help from whatever big names they can get (Lee/Paul for Brannon, Huck/Perkins for Harris, etc.).

LA-06: Graves is getting a boost from Mary Matalin. Last week, she hosted a fundraiser, along with some other Republican big wigs, for him. Graves had the strongest Q1 fundraising in his race; if this is an indication, look for him to have a good Q2 as well.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-06: TPE had a rally for Dietzel today, per his Twitter feed.

[Miles]

^ I was thinking about going to 'cover it', but I've already heard him (and Maness) speak.

[RogueBeaver]

How's the air war going?