LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Vern]

AOSHQDD projects a Walker win in NC-6.

I am so glad Walker won! I called it from the start.

[Dixie Reborn]

AOSHQDD projects a Walker win in NC-6.

I am so glad Walker won! I called it from the start.

Me too. Walker was obviously the better of the two candidates. Berger seemed like the type of politician who only wanted to elevate himself, rather than consider the people of his district.

[Dixie Reborn]

Do Democrats have a candidate in NC-06?

[Vern]

Do Democrats have a candidate in NC-06?

Yea, but NC-06 is so Republican that it doesn't matter who it is, they aren't going to win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I guess I am sort of pleased by the result, but I must say I have really lost touch with the Congressional elections across the board.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6: Another great Edwards profile, this time from the Weekly Standard. Wonder when/if TWS/NRO will start covering the Pub candidates.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Hollis endorses Cassidy.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Tillis is playing hardball with Democrats in the NCGA; with the intraparty fighting on his own side, I'm not sure its wise to be picking these types of fights (and getting press for it):

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More NC-Sen: Freedom Partners, one of the primary Koch fronts, is dropping "at least" $2.8M here between August and September.

The Patriot Majority PAC is countering with a $1M buy linking Tillis to the Kochs.

More NC-Sen: In terms of its financial/logistical standing, the NC Democratic party is about on par with the MN or NV Republicans. As such Hagan's campaign has mostly been operating without its help. Instead, Hagan has been working closely with the Wake County Democrats; this isn't really a new development, but the NYT has some fundraising numbers. In June, for instance, the Wake County Dems outraised the state party by about 4:1.

LA-Sen: On the fundraising front, I don't think it comes as a surprise that this will be the most expensive race in LA history. Combined, Cassidy and Landrieu have raised nearly $22M plus a little over $1M for Maness. Also, for some perspective, in 2008, John Kennedy raised $4.8 million. Casssidy surpassed that...after Q1.

Some good news for Cassidy is that, while he's always been outraised, he's pulling close to Landrieu in terms of CoH. Its a bit worrisome for Landrieu, but she did drop over $2M for large ad buys. That series of ads has been running since April, so at least she got a lot of 'mileage' with that buy.

LA-05: Should McAllister drop the GOP and run as an Independent? Between his poor treatment by the GOP rank-and-file and his mavericky appeal, state political sage Jeremy Alford thinks an Independent run might make sense for McAllister. Alford also argues that since Independents are growing in numbers (both in LA and elsewhere) they should get some representation in Congress.

Speaking of this race, Elbert Guillory extend his decision deadline to July 15...still no word. I guess, as with his party affiliation, Guillory can't make up his mind about which races to run in.

LA-06: This may end up as an ad, but Garret Graves has a cutsy video out featuring his young kids. Claitor has released a few brief web videos, but I don't think anyone has actually gine up on the air here.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: I saw that the Patriot Majority PAC is going after Tillis, but apparently they're on the air against Cassidy, too. I actually think this ad against Cassidy is more effective. The ad focuses on..wait for it...Cassidycare! If nothing else, it makes him look waffly to conservatives, who may look to Maness as an alternative.

LA-06: This sounds messy:

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[RogueBeaver]

Has Felder gained any traction at all?

[Miles]

Judging by her fundraising, no.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Though Tillis promised a short session, here we are, almost into August, with no budget. From the way Phil Berger and Pat McCrory are getting along, you'd think they're from different parties. The two have been at eachother over the budget for the past three weeks, the conflict is mostly around teacher salaries and Medicaid funds.

McCrory is a team player and he's been pretty clear that he'll help Tillis as much as possible; McCrory is more supportive of the Tillis' House-crafted budget. For Republicans, Berger seems to be the villian here, threatning to override any budget veto McCrory makes. Despite unified partisan control, the Senate and House often have a penchant for discord, as seen with the abortion bill debacle las t summer.

For Hagan, the Republican trifecta's incompetence is a lucky gift. It helps make up for the lack of a Republicna runoff. But imagine how rough Tillis' numbers would be if he had a runoff: he'd have to balance his day job as Speaker while constantly guarding his right flank, and still making the occasional fundraising trip to Washington.

NC-Everything: The NC Free Enterprise Foundation has been a great resource for candidate and fundraising tracking. The most recent numbers have the GOP up a lot when it comes to the NCGA. Altogether, House Republicans have a 2:1 CoH edge over the Democrats; for the Senate, its closer to 3:1. For the US House Republicans candidates have almost $5M aggregately to just $250K for the Democrats.

The brightest spot for Democrats is, of course, the Senate race. Hagan holds a $8.7M to $1.5M CoH advantage over Tillis. The State Supreme Court race is looking good as well. Though the judges are ostensibly nonpartisan, Democrats are supporting Justice Robin Hudson while the de-facto Republican is Erick Levinson. Neither are raising money at typical Congressional/statewide levels, but Hudson is ahead.

[Miles]

LA-06: For her late entry Lenoir Whitney has sure been obnoxious. In addition to her global warming attention-grabbing video, she's had a noticeably short fuse with reporters and social media. I'm glad to see Wasserman agrees with me:

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[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Miles, has Hagan been on the air with any positive ads to build up her brand before Tillis can?

[RogueBeaver]

Miles, do you know if there'll be another LA-6 debate anytime soon?

[Miles]

^ Yes. One of her ads about her work at Camp LeJuene was really good.

Its good to run a few of these positive spots, but PPP has Tillis' favorables at 24/47. Keeping that down as low as possible would be my priority.

I haven't heard about any new debates in LA-06.

[JerryArkansas]

Miles, what can you say about races in 2016.  It is more than 2 years away, but do you think any house races could be competitive?

[Miles]

^ As far as the general elections, I doubt it. CD9 was surprisingly close in 2012 and the area is moving Democratic, but Pittenger is becoming entrenched. CD13 is a similar story; a few statewide Democrats carried it in 2012, but I think running statewide would be easier than running in an R+9 seat.

Burr is liable to retire, so a seat may open up if any House Republicans take the plunge.

Its hard to tell what happens in LA-05 and LA-06, but those could be.

[Dixie Reborn]

^ As far as the general elections, I doubt it. CD9 was surprisingly close in 2012 and the area is moving Democratic, but Pittenger is becoming entrenched. CD13 is a similar story; a few statewide Democrats carried it in 2012, but I think running statewide would be easier than running in an R+9 seat.

Burr is liable to retire, so a seat may open up if any House Republicans take the plunge.

Its hard to tell what happens in LA-05 and LA-06, but those could be.

Why would Burr retire? Him losing in a primary seems more likely.

[Miles]

Why would Burr retire? Him losing in a primary seems more likely.

It depends a lot on what happens this year.

I'm pretty sure he would if Hagan wins. If she wins, he'll almost certainly still be in the minority. In 2016, Democrats would be in a position to gain more seats. The next chance Burr would have to get back in the majority would be after the 2018 midterms. Is it worth running a tough race in 2016?

They were actually having a conversation about this over at RRH the other day. Burr's fundraising last quarter was dead last for the 2016 Senators. The only other Senator from a swingy state that has less cash in the bank is Johnson.

If Tillis wins, Burr is obviously more likely to stick around, but he's really never struck me as the type to stay in Congress eternally.

[Flake]

If Burr decides to not run, who would be the strongest Republican to hold that seat? Who would be the strongest Democrat?

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: NYT says COC might endorse Landrieu?

[Miles]

^ Neat; I'll take it!

[Miles]

I'll take this, too!



Perhaps there is some payback factor at play here, as well. Cassidy donated to Landrieu in 2002, which was when Perkins ran against her.

[RogueBeaver]

Miles, do you think Perkins will endorse in LA-5 or 6?