LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

I'd expect him too; he's been endorsing candidates in other states, so why not at home?

Well, its pretty clear who he won't be supporting in LA-06! I think Dietzel adn Whitney are the most likely candidates, though if he's wants to support an underdog, McCulloch might fit the bill.

He probably has less reason to get involved in LA-05, but Dasher seems to have decent socon creds.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Whoah, after his first two positive spots, Cassidy is going on the offense in his last ad buy.

NC-02: Ellmers is a finalist on Bill Maher's Flip-A-District contest, thanks in large part to comments like this:

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: PPP has polling out for the LCV on why the coal ash spill is still a liability for Tillis:

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[Miles]

LA-06: This is Wasserman's full write-up from his interview with Whitney.

Her background:

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And, you would think, after making climate change denial a central part of her campaign, she could do better than this:

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And the response from the Whitney campaign is just as pitiful:

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[Miles]

Miles, do you think Perkins will endorse in LA-5 or 6?

Whoah, I almost glossed over it, but buried in Wasserman's piece:

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[Miles]

LA-Sen: The Senate border bill, supported by Democrats, failed on a 50/44 vote. Landrieu and Manchin were the only Democrats to vote against the rest of their caucus.

NC-06: For Phil; the GOP nominee here, Mark Walker, is another fan of Santorum:

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Landrieu gets a boost today with the endorsement of the LA Sheriff's Association; it likewise endorsed her in 2008. Historically, the sheriff has been, arguably, the most powerful figure in parish-level politics. Even today, sheriffs hold considerable sway in local political operations.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Romney to campaign for Tillis.

[Never]

^ Considering this is a state that Romney won with a presidential electorate that will surely be larger than the one of this midterm, his campaigning should be a net positive for Tillis.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Looks like their will be four debates (assuming Cassidy agrees to all of them):

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LA-06: To no one's surprise, Whiteny gets a 'Pants on Fire' rating from Politifact on her global warming video.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The Washington Examiner has a decent take on this race.

First, I agree with them that, for being one if the most high-profile races, it features two of the most vanilla candidates in the country:

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I can't say how many interviews of Hagan I've seen where she just sticks to talking points. Its really frustrating. So much of the stuff she says just seems pre-rehearsed. Thats what really worries me about the (inevtaible) debates down the line.

And for Tillis:

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Obamacare has, of course, been weighing down Hagan. Tillis, OTOH, has been criticized as waffly on his support for some of the Congressional antics (such as the shutdown and on immigration).
 
LA-05: As the phrase goes, if you were a politican and had to choose a state to put on the other side of the confessional, you'd sure choose Louisiana.

Roll Call looks at Vance McAllister. For being considered DOA earlier this year, the "Kissing Congressman" video seems to be in the rearview mirror:

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: This video is making its rounds on Twitter. During a town hall, Hagan stopped mid-sentence to have a tracker kicked out. I  understand why trackers are a nuisance for any politician, but this wasn't a good move.

More NC-Sen: Tillis is dropping $2.7 million for ad buys in six media markets with the "bulk" of airtime being in October.

LA-Sen: This is about a week old, but the three main candidates here made their pitches at a convention of about 1,000 municipal officials from across the state. The article goes into a bit more depth, but basically:

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[Miles]

NC-WATN? Remember Greg Brannon? He has a weekly radio show on the Constitution. In any case, he won't be endorsing in the Senate race; he cites the "I won't settle for the lesser of two evils" position. More interestingly, he isn't ruling out a 2016 run.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: In probably the largest buy I've ever seen, the DSCC is dropping $9.1M (!) in NC.

Also, WaPo is all over NC-Sen today. The first thing they have is bcasically just a general overview.

The next article deals more with national implications:

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[Miles]

LA-Sen the Landrieu campaign is under scrutiny for spending taxpayer funds on a campaign flight. Last fall, she flew down to New Orleans with the President. Instead of going to his event, she flew to Lake Charles for a fundraiser. The cost of her flight was about $3,000 which, her spokesman said, was mistakenly to her Senate office instead of the campaign office.

I don't think this is a huge deal, but the campaign should have obviously been more careful. The last thing they need at this point is a lawsuit or ethics complaint.

Ironically, if she was going to Lake Charles, to eschew Obama, it was kinda pointless. When they got off Air Force One, the press got a pic of them, which I've seen in at least one ad.

[Miles]

NC-06: Ugh. Well, I doubt Baby Berger would have answered any differently

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[free my dawg]

NC-06: Ugh. Well, I doubt Baby Berger would have answered any differently

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Not only that, but if that doesn't work he'd be down for court-martialing him.

Likely R?

[Miles]

^ Yeah, Likely R. Democrats have a non-Some Dude, but its a tough seat.

[Miles]

A few candidate videos for LA-06:

Garret Graves did a local interview in Houma. Graves, despite his association with the Jindal administration, would be my second choice if I were a Republican. He's not too much of a bomb thrower, is articulate and is knowledgeable on local issues.

Though (I think) they've already endorsed him, Deitzel is becoming a favorite at RedState. Dietzel's speech is mostly anti-government, "next generation" platitudes more than anything else.

Also, Edwin Edwards is seeking the endorsement of the LADP. I explained here why LA has 'endorsements' as opposed to 'nominations.' There are two other Democrats in this race but both are Some Dudes. The LAGOP went against tradition to endorse Cassidy this year, which Edwards is certainly pointing to as a precedent.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Dammit, not again. This better not become a trend 'Second freakin story about this type of thing in 24 hours.

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: Fcat checkers have examined Tillis' stance on the shutdown. Their verdict was that he flip-flopped.

Tillis was saying this last year:

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And is now taking a more conciliatory position:

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LA-Sen/LA-06: In a mildly worring bit of news for Democrats, Landrieu finds herself sitting at a CoH disadvantage to Cassidy. The difference is very slight, $5.5M vs. $5.6M, but compared to Hagan, who has something like a 3:1 CoH edge over Tillis, this doesn't help the narrative of Landrieu's vulnerability. This could change after Q3 reports, as Landrieu's hauls have been pretty strong, but she's had to spend more to help off-set the involvement of outside groups.

I'm still curious at the (very) uninspiring fundraising from some major players in CD6. Graves is riding high, with almsot $650K in the bank. After that, the dropoff is pretty steep. Edwards has about $150K while no one else is over $100K. At this rate, both Claitor and Dietzel, both of whom where expected to be heavy hitters, may well be relegated to ground game.

LA-05: Exactly a month after his self-imposed deadline, Sen. Elbert Guillory (R->D->R) is undecided if he'll run here. If he does, he'd be the highes-profile non-McAllister Republican in the race, but would star out with next to nothing in the bank.

[RogueBeaver]

Re LA-6: Has Graves monopolized their potential donors?

[Miles]

^ Looks like it.

[Miles]

NC-03: Another reason why Jones is an FF:

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[free my dawg]

Once again, why Walter Jones is the best Congressman on the other side. We need more Joneses and Amashes in Congress, not less.