LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[IceSpear]

lol Cassidy: http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=jmx0HJ3G

Great news for Senator Landrieu!

Wow, the prude Cassidy is handing the frat bro vote to Landrieu on a silver platter. Game changer.

[Lief 🗽]

lol Cassidy: http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=jmx0HJ3G

Great news for Senator Landrieu!

Wow, the prude Cassidy is handing the frat bro vote to Landrieu on a silver platter. Game changer.

On the bright side for Cassidy, he has also locked up the BRTD vote.

[free my dawg]

lol Cassidy: http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=jmx0HJ3G

Great news for Senator Landrieu!

What the f**k is this sh*t?

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Here's the Upshot on why Hagan is holding up so well. Basically: 1) Hagan is doing surprinsgly well with seniors 2) Education is a bigger issue in NC than most states and 3) Tillis hasn't been able to compete on the fundraising front.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: A story that may be problematic for Hagan:

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Tillis, though, is also getting similar bad press with his support for tholl roads:

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LA-Sen: Cassidy gets a 'Pants on Fire' for his last ad trying to link Landrieu to illegal immigrants.

More LA-Sen: Palin will be in Louisiana this weekend to campaign for Maness.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Rand Paul will be campaigning with Tillis and Walter Jones in Greenville next week. As you may recall, Paul supported the less electable Brannon in the primary, and even made a last-ditch campaign stop for him. Paul was then criticized by NC Republicans for giving Tillis only a lukewarm post-primary endorsement.

Visible support from Paul would, in theory, give libertarian-minded Haugh voters more reason to back Tillis.

NC-02: Ellmers and Aiken will debate October 6th.

NC-06: I was surprised at the amount of support Walker (R) got in the primary. It looks like he's continuing that into the general election, as a bipartisan group of county sheriffs is supporting him.

LA-05: Zack Dasher (R) has been endorsed by the LA Tea Party. This group is not to be confused with the national Tea Party Express, though. In the neighboring CD6, for instance, the groups have given divergent endorsements. The LA Tea Party is supporting the crazy and scary Palin-esque Lenar Whitney whereas the TPE has gone with the less bombastic Paul Dietzel.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Cassidy courting minority voters.

[Miles]

NC-02: I said in my NC-02 thread that Aiken needs to work on appealling to Piedmont; it lookds like he took my advice His latest campaign stop was in Randolph County. Even more interesting was that he spoke to a tea party group. It sounds like his emphasis on national defense would sell well with that group. Also, Aiken could well be expoliting the right's dissatisfaction with Ellmers.

NC-09: Pittenger is denying what he said a few weeks ago that employers should enjoy their Consititutional right to fire LGBT workers. Too bad it was caught on tape. Though Pittenger is running unopposed, NC-09 is one of the more socially moderate districts in NC, so I expect this to come back up if he's ever in another competitive race.

LA-Sen: A big incentive for Landrieu to win outright:

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LA-Sen: Cassidy courting minority voters.

Cao was with Cassidy and Vitter at the March for Life back in Feburary. New Orleans has a decent Vietnamese community and Cao would be a good surrogate.

LA-06: NPR interviewed Edwards.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: In contrast to LA, Democrats are on track to far outspend Republicans this next month in NC:

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As I pointed out earlier, though Burr was behind at this point in his competitive 2004 race, he closed the gap by outspending Bowles in the last month. Tillis won't have that. In fact, if things don't change much over the next few weeks, look for the GOP to invest elsewhere:

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LA-06: Advocate article on Dietzel.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Well, Palin's visit for Maness went about as you'd expect:




LA-05: Tea party-endorsed Zach Dasher continues to dash to the far-right:

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Well, David Duke espoused similar rhetoric and he always did well in this district; maybe that's what Dasher's going for.

[Miles]

LA-05: The Club for Growth goes on the offense against McAllister.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Opprotunist State Senator Elbert Guillory (R->D->R) is again trying to worm his way back into the limelight. Despite her vast support from them over the years, Guillory has a web video hanging all the problems of the LA black community since 1996 around Landrieu's neck. If she's been doing such a poor job since then, I wonder why he wasn't sounding the alarm in 2002 or 2008.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: According to Maness, he raised $1M in Q3.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Mark your calenders!

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: Politico on how Hagan is holding on:

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The one correction I have with that is Tillis was not a top recruit. Perhaps he was relative to the rest of the actual field, but Republicans could have done better.

LA-Sen: In what seems to be a good sign for Landrieu, Gallup finds Democratic self-identification in LA is at its highest point since 2008:



Likewise, as the Democratic floor is relatively high in LA, while his approvals have slid nationally since 2008, they're steady in LA:



I've sometimes wondered how Landrieu would be fairing if she were up in 2012 instead. From this, it doesn't seem like she'd be in that different a situation from this year.

LA-06: Here's a good article on Claitor, who's long labeled himself a "constructive conservative":

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[IceSpear]

Yeah, when I read Tillis was touted as a "top recuit", I thought: "by who, his mom?"

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Another "poll", which I'm assuming is from the SCF, puts Maness at near 20%. Landrieu has 35%, Cassidy 29% and Maness at 17%.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

LA-Sen: Another "poll", which I'm assuming is from the SCF, puts Maness at near 20%. Landrieu has 35%, Cassidy 29% and Maness at 17%.

What bugs me about this is that all the people who support the SCF are always screaming and whining about "election fraud," yet this organization rolls out crap like this...

[Miles]

PDF of Maness' "poll."

'Some very odd stats; 22% of respondents, for instance, say they speak Spanish. I never knew the Hispanophone population in LA was that high....

The poll undersampled Democrats and women. Junk, obviously.

[Dixie Reborn]

NBC/Marist: Hagan leads 44-40

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Boom! Hagan raises nearly $5M in Q3 and has $2M CoH.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

NC-Sen: Boom! Hagan raises nearly $5M in Q3 and has $2M CoH.

So when do the ads start for her 2020 reelection campaign?!

[Miles]

LA-06: 'Decent write-up by Mother Jones.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC-Sen: Politico on how Hagan is holding on:

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You have got to be kidding me.

Besides Rubio, when as has a state house leader not been a complete disaster statewide. Berg, That dude in Kentucky, Tillis.

That said the combination of mediscare tactics which soured me on McIntyre in 2010 and the tax cuts to ship jobs overseas tactic of Kissell in 2010 has only made me dislike Hagan even more, if Amnesty and Obamacare weren't enough.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Landrieu replaces campaign manager in staff shakeup. Also: Cohn on white Republicanization.