LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races
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  LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races
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Author Topic: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races  (Read 212066 times)
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1975 on: November 18, 2014, 07:39:36 PM »

For some reason, I thought Murphy would vote for it. He's pretty close to Landrieu, and I thought he might vote for it as a bone to her.


Come on Miles. Murphy is staying and Landrieu is leaving. Protecting the President>Protecting Senator Landrieu for an incumbent who wants a future. When Reid calls, you obey. I wouldn't be surprised if these fourteen Aye Democrats vanish into the night in January for that reason.

I think that they will stick to their votes because they want to be re-elected in 2016 and beyond and a Nay vote could come back to haunt them.


Senators' reelection bids won't go up in flames two years or longer from now for changing their vote on a bill that will be vetoed by the President.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1976 on: November 18, 2014, 07:46:54 PM »

For some reason, I thought Murphy would vote for it. He's pretty close to Landrieu, and I thought he might vote for it as a bone to her.


Come on Miles. Murphy is staying and Landrieu is leaving. Protecting the President>Protecting Senator Landrieu for an incumbent who wants a future. When Reid calls, you obey. I wouldn't be surprised if these fourteen Aye Democrats vanish into the night in January for that reason.

I think that they will stick to their votes because they want to be re-elected in 2016 and beyond and a Nay vote could come back to haunt them.


Senators' reelection bids won't go up in flames two years or longer from now for changing their vote on a bill that will be vetoed by the President.

No, it depends on whether the issue has staying power. That is especially the case for MO, ND and MT where if they are still waiting, ten years after the initial application, you damn well bet that whoever Republicans run will make it an issue, same with WV. Donnelly might survive unless he has a list of votes to answer for instead of just one.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #1977 on: November 18, 2014, 09:09:41 PM »

Senators' reelection bids won't go up in flames two years or longer from now for changing their vote on a bill that will be vetoed by the President.

It's an assumption at this point that Obama will veto. He may just allow it to pass and pick and choose another battle to fight.
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Miles
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« Reply #1978 on: November 18, 2014, 11:20:35 PM »

LA-Sen: Ugh. Another piece on how national Democrats have given Mary the shaft ugh.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1979 on: November 18, 2014, 11:21:15 PM »

Senators' reelection bids won't go up in flames two years or longer from now for changing their vote on a bill that will be vetoed by the President.

It's an assumption at this point that Obama will veto. He may just allow it to pass and pick and choose another battle to fight.

True. Although it seems to me with his huge whole "the day after the election I turned into a fiery liberal" stint he'll veto it on since he's now the world's #1 environmentalist. Also, with gas prices dropping, that probably lessens any severe public outcry.
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« Reply #1980 on: November 19, 2014, 03:15:07 AM »

True. Although it seems to me with his huge whole "the day after the election I turned into a fiery liberal" stint he'll veto it on since he's now the world's #1 environmentalist. Also, with gas prices dropping, that probably lessens any severe public outcry.

IIRC, All Obama has been about with Keystone is about "reviews, reviews and more reviews," trying not to take a stance at least pre-midterms. It will be interesting to see what he does when the Keystone XL Pipeline bill passes in the new Congress.

Republicans should be four or so votes away from an override in the Senate and would probably need to find 30-40 votes in the House. Unlikely, but you never know.
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Miles
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« Reply #1981 on: November 23, 2014, 12:37:01 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2014, 12:41:42 AM by Miles »

One of the consolation prizes for Democrats in NC, IMO, was that they won (or appear to have won) all three state Supreme Court races they contested.

Judges are nominally nonpartisan in NC, but the parties still usually endorse and support candidates. While it might not be as obvious with the Senate race, I think the Bannock Street Project helped with these races. I'm no authority on NC judicial politics, and didn't follow these race that closely, but thats my guess.

Sam Ervin IV, grandson of the former NC Senator, ran for a seat in 2012 but lost. This year, he ran against Robert Hunter, who was appointed in September by McCrory.

Robin Hudson was elected in 2006 and went for her second term this year.

Cheri Beasley was the first black woman elected statewide, to the (lower) NC Appeals Court. During the last month of her term, Bev Perdue appointed Beasley to the Supreme Court. As of now, the result is going to a recount, but there were closer races in 2012 that weren't overturned, so I think Beasley has won this seat in her own right.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1982 on: November 23, 2014, 02:54:53 AM »

Keystone and immigration would have definitely be best to past before the election in helping out Udall, Landrieu and Begich. Now, that the G O P majority has been installed, there is no incentive for either side to give at this time.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1983 on: November 25, 2014, 08:02:14 AM »

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1984 on: November 25, 2014, 08:06:00 AM »

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.
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Miles
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« Reply #1985 on: November 25, 2014, 12:54:15 PM »

Ugh, this is gonna be a damn Blanching.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1986 on: November 27, 2014, 04:13:37 PM »

Yeah, that's why I said I wish she just lost on November 4th. Then she just would've just been another Southern Democratic incumbent swept out in the wave. Now she's going to be humiliated with the spotlight completely on her. Pretty sad.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1987 on: November 27, 2014, 06:14:44 PM »

Keystone and immigration would have definitely be best to past before the election in helping out Udall, Landrieu and Begich. Now, that the G O P majority has been installed, there is no incentive for either side to give at this time.

Uh what?

According to Cassidy's focus groups, Landrieu's immigration vote is one of the things that is crippling her with white voters.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1988 on: November 28, 2014, 09:42:30 AM »

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.

With 175K early votes, the Black share is still stuck at a low 26%:

http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1206_StatewideStats.pdf

That means roughly 24% Blacks overall (in the exit poll), because the election day vote will be "whiter".

Based on these new numbers, Landrieu will be defeated by about 62-38.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1989 on: November 30, 2014, 12:11:39 AM »

Burr is bullish on whether Hagan runs against him in 2016:


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IceSpear
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« Reply #1990 on: November 30, 2014, 02:38:04 AM »


Yeah, just ask Pat McCrory.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1991 on: November 30, 2014, 11:46:53 AM »

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.

With 175K early votes, the Black share is still stuck at a low 26%:

http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1206_StatewideStats.pdf

That means roughly 24% Blacks overall (in the exit poll), because the election day vote will be "whiter".

Based on these new numbers, Landrieu will be defeated by about 62-38.

Yesterday was the final day for early voting and another 50K votes were cast.

So, with 222K early votes cast the Black share is 27.5% (down 5% from the 1st round).

That means the exit poll will roughly show a 70% White, 25% Black, 5% other split.

Landrieu to lose by about 39-61, based on the updated numbers.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1992 on: November 30, 2014, 01:45:46 PM »

Landrieu needs an extreme miracle in tomorrow's debate.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1993 on: December 01, 2014, 05:14:51 PM »

WTH: WaPo says Landrieu thought she'd win outright.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1994 on: December 01, 2014, 09:06:53 PM »

Landrieu won tonight's debate, but it is too narrow of a win to produce any dramatic changes in the race.

From this, the polling, and the early voting statistics, I am revising my previous estimate of a 8-12 point Landrieu loss to a 14-18 point Landrieu loss
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1995 on: December 01, 2014, 11:32:53 PM »

Landrieu won tonight's debate, but it is too narrow of a win to produce any dramatic changes in the race.

From this, the polling, and the early voting statistics, I am revising my previous estimate of a 8-12 point Landrieu loss to a 14-18 point Landrieu loss

Is there a link to the debate? I would like to see it but can't find it anywhere.
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Miles
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« Reply #1996 on: December 01, 2014, 11:52:51 PM »

^ C-SPAN has it.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1997 on: December 02, 2014, 12:06:38 AM »

Saw the end of of it after work.


What I saw isn't going to change anything. Each had their own attacks and their own accusations of corruption, but nothing breaks the narrative and nothing would have damaged Cassidy enough to alter anything.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1998 on: December 02, 2014, 12:25:30 AM »


Thanks!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1999 on: December 02, 2014, 01:23:25 AM »

Wow, that was a really nasty debate. I got annoyed at both of them. At least Landrieu can say she went down fighting like a champ, unlike others (Grimes, Pryor, etc.)

I also laughed out loud when she said she doubt that Cassidy will get elected.
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