LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Well, here we geaux!

This is for the 2014 Senate and House races in LA and NC.

Kay Hagan has formally announced that she'll be running again.

Likewise, Mary Landrieu says "Bring it on!"


NC


Senate
- Senator Kay Hagan (D- Guilford)
- NCGA Speaker Thom Tillis (R- Mecklenburg)
- Dr. Greg Brannon (R- Wake)
- Heather Grant (R- Wilkes)
- Rev. Mark Harris (R- Mecklenburg)
- Bill Flynn (R- Forsyth)
- David Waddell (C- Union)
- Ted Alexander (R- Cleveland)
- Edward Kryn (R- Johnston)
- Will Stewart (D- Pender)

CD1
G.K Butterfield (D- Wilson)
Other candidates:
Rod Hewlin (D- Durham)

CD2
Renee Ellmers (R- Harnett)
Other candidates:
- Frank Roche (R-Wake)
- Houston Barnes (D- Wake)
- Clay Aiken (D- Wake)
- Keith Crisco (D- Randolph)

CD3
Walter Jones (R- Pitt)
Other candidates:
- Jason Thigpen (D- New Hanover)
- Taylor Griffin (R- Craven)
- Marshall Adame (D-Onslow)

CD4
David Price (D- Orange)
Other candidates:

CD5
Virginia Foxx (R- Avery)
Other candidates:
- Philip Doyle (R- Forsyth)
CD6
Howard Coble (R- Guilford)
Retiring
Other candidates:
- Don Webb (R- Guilford)
- Laura Fjeld (D- Orange)
- Phil Berger Jr. (R- Rockingham)
- Dan Collison (R- Guilford)
- Mark Walker (R- Guilford)
- Zach Mathney (R- Guilford)
- Bruce VonCannon (R)
- Mike Causey (R- Guilford)
- Bruce Davis (D- Guilford)
- Ken Kopf (R- Jamestown)

CD7
Mike McIntyre (D- Robeson)
Retiring
Other candidates:
- David Rouzer (R- Johnston)
- Jonathan Barfield (D- New Hanover)
- Woody White (R- New Hanover)

CD8
Richard Hudson (R- Cabarrus)
Other candidates:
Antonio Blue (D- Richmond)

CD9
Robert Pittenger (R- Mecklenburg)
Other candidates:

CD10
Patrick McHenry (R- Gaston)
Other candidates:
- Terry Bellamy (D- Buncombe)
- Tate MacQueen (D- Buncombe)

CD11
Mark Meadows (R- Macon)
Other candidates:
- Keith Ruehl (D- Buncombe)

CD12
Malcolm Graham (D- Mecklenburg)
Alma Adams (D- Guilford)

CD13
George Holding (R- Wake)
Other candidates:
- Brenda Cleary (D- Wake)
- Theresa Corcoran (D- Wake)
 

LA



Senate
- Senator Mary Landrieu (D- Orleans)
- Bill Cassidy (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Rob Maness (R- St. Tammany)
- Paul Hollis (R- St. Tammany)

CD1
Steve Scalise (R- Jefferson)
Other candidates:

CD2
Cedric Richmond (D- Orleans)
Other candidates:

CD3
Charles Boustany (R- Lafayette)
Other candidates:

CD4
John Fleming (R- Webster)
Other candidates:

CD5
Vance McAllister (rep.-elect) (R-Ouachita)
Other candidates:

CD6
Bill Cassidy (R- East Baton Rouge)
Retiring to run for Senate
Other candidates:
- Paul Dietzel (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Quentin Anderson (D- East Baton Rouge)
- Rick Ward III (R-Iberville)
- Richard Lieberman (D- St. John the Baptist)
- Ryan Heck (R- East Baton Rouge) ?
- Norman Clark (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Dan Claitor (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Robert Bell (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Cassie Felder (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Trey Thomas (R- East Baton Rouge)

[Miles]

While the Senate field in NC is still murky, we do have a more solid picture in LA.

Bill Cassidy has taken some tangible steps to show that he's interested. Tea party firebrand Jeff Landry could also conceivably mount a bid; he got the shaft in redistricting which resulted in his loss last night.

We can scratch Steve Scalise's name from the list. He was just elected to lead the Republican Study Committee; its very likely that he'll stay in the House.

[Miles]

Wasn't the 2008 Louisiana Senate race fought under a closed primary instead of the jungle primary?

There was a brief period of time (2006-2008 ?) where House and Senate races didn't have a jungle primary, yeah.

Yes, the jungle primary was just reintroduced in the 2012 cycle for federal races.

[Miles]

Any reason why they reintroduced the jungle primary?

Neither party supported it, but Jindal brought it back anyway.

What's your take on Landrieu's chances this cycle, Miles?

Probably 50/50. Of course, this is one race where having Obama in the White House doesn't help; it really depends on how nationalized this race gets.

[Miles]

Miles, what do you think about Virginia Foxx running for Senate?

I doubt it; she'd be an awful statewide candidate.

[Miles]

PPP was out with its first NC poll.

Her approval is 44/43.

Hagan- 45%
Ellmers- 39%

Hagan- 49%
Foxx- 39%

Hagan- 48%
Holding- 39%

Hagan- 48%
McHenry- 40%

Hagan- 45%
Myrick- 44%

Hagan- 48%
Tillis- 39%

Myrick seems to stick out here, but she's 71.

[Miles]

I guess the good news for Tillis out of this poll is that 66% don't know about him, despite all the controversial items he's advocated for in the Assembly. However, his favorables with those who have heard of him are 11/22.

[Miles]

Well, in any case, I always learned "Geaux." Despite being from New Orleans, I personally have zero French ancestry, so I never really questioned the linguistics behind it!

[Miles]

Its a negative, no question about that. It would be a nice luxury to have, for instance, Jeff Landry upset Bill Cassidy in a Republican primary.

[Miles]

Though its ambiguous as to which race, exactly, he plans on pursuing, outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry hinted at another run for something in the future.

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Obviously, if he ran for Senate, Landrieu would be smart to engage in some Reid/McCaskill-style ratf-cking.

[Miles]

Some statewide offices will become vacant in 2015. Any idea when people will start announcing for either Senate race?

I'd probably say we should definitely have a pretty clear picture of the 2014 Senate race by the end of this spring.

The bulk of the other statewide/local races should be shaping up after the dust settles from 2014. Candidates there tend to wait a bit longer to formally announce and the timetable between the candidate's announcement and election day tends to be quicker than for federal races. For example, with the two most competitive 2011 races (LG and SoS), Billy Nungesser announced that he was challenging Jay Dardenne in July of 2011 and Jim Tucker waited until August to take the plunge against Tom Schedler.

[Miles]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

I've heard rumors that John Flemming might get in, but I seriously doubt that he actually does. I've also seen Dardenne's name floated, but he has a pretty good relationship with Cassidy. If Dardenne runs, he'll probably let Cassidy take on Landrieu while he'll wait for the Class III seat when Vitter runs for Governor.

[Miles]

Landrieu loses 4% off the top for the drop in black turnout that will occur do to it being a mid term year

Not necessarily; here are the trends I gathered from turnout statistics:



- The electorate is gradually becoming less white.

- Even in 2010, a midterm year, the electorate was less white than the Presidential year of 2000 and on exactly on par with 2004.

- The major exception this trend was 2006, however, there wasn't any major federal race (Presidential or Senatorial) in 2006.

- The dropoff in black turnout was only 1% from 2000 to 2002 (when Landrieu win her second term).

- Aside from 2006, which as I mentioned was something of an anomaly, the most severe change among black was from 2008 to 2010, where they made up 3% less of the electorate. If that 3% drop was duplicated in 2014, Landrieu would have a 29% black electorate, which is only 1% less black than in 2008.

[Miles]

Though its ambiguous as to which race, exactly, he plans on pursuing, outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry hinted at another run for something in the future.

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Obviously, if he ran for Senate, Landrieu would be smart to engage in some Reid/McCaskill-style ratf-cking.

Allegedly Landry was behind some portions of the rumors about going after John Boehner.

Hmm, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Miles]

Interesting that you mention John Fleming - he voted Friday to dump Sandy victims, denying them federal aid.  That doesn't sound like someone who wants to win in Louisiana, and New Orleans would obviously be NOTHING if it weren't for the federal assistance it received after Katrina.

However, it could potentially help him in a Republican/Tea Party situation where he wants to become the Republican "nominee" by getting to the right of all the other Republicans.  I still don't know, though.

Also, Fleming is only sitting on about $500K CoH whereas Cassidy is already pushing $2 million.

[Miles]

There's been speculation that the Republicans will use Landrieu's fiscal cliff vote against her. I'm not so sure it would be an effective line of attack; Vitter voted Yea as well, as did 90% of the Republican caucus in the Senate.

[Miles]

A few items for today.

First, Bill Cassidy is out speaking to voters and learning about local concerns in Metairie and Slidell. For those less familiar with Louisiana's geography, both towns are outside of his district, as they are next door in Scalise's CD1. Being a Landrieu, Mary overperfirms in Greater New Orleans; for instance, while McCain won CD1 by a hefty 73/25, John Kennedy would have carried it by a much slimmer 55/43. Cassidy would do well to make inroads in this area.

This article, from the Bayou Buzz, is playing up Fleming as a contender; I'm still skeptical that taking the plunge here would be his best choice. However, I do agree with the article's analysis of Jindal:

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[Miles]

Meanwhile, up in NC, we finally have something of a timetable from Tillis: he'll make an announcement after the current legislative session.

I didn't know that he limited himself  to only two terms as Speaker. The article points out that there is already some jockeying among House Republicans as to who will replace him.

[Miles]

David Rouzer is looking into another run in NC-07.

Rouzer says that his "late start" in 2012 accounted for his 654-vote loss. Though the 7th district was tailor-made for Rouzer, his primary opponent, Ilario Pantano, got a headstart of about 6 months.

It sounds like Rouzer would announce sooner as opposed to later; Republicans have a bevy of Assembly members in this area, so the longer Rouzer waits, the more crowded the primary field is likely to get.

[Miles]

I think NC-09 might competitive by the time Pittenger retires; he's 64 now, so probably within the next 10 years. I haven't done precicnt-level analysis yet, but south Charlotte is trending D pretty noticeably.

Roberts was about the best candidate Democrats could get there this year; its pretty impressive that she only lost by 6 points in a district where McCrory was pushing 70%.

As of last election, both Mecklenburg and Guilford counties are trending D at about the same rate. The 9th may be more appealing than the 6th because it has more of Mecklenburg than 6 has of Guilford. Also, the CD6 counties along the VA border are trending Republican; Iredell and Union counties are gradually becoming more friendly to Demcorats.

[Miles]

'Looks like Hagan is learning a few things from Liddy Dole, whom she accused of being out of touch with the state:

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She goes on to talk about being a centrist in the rest of the article, then Democratic and Republican strategists discuss the typical talking points.

Here's an interesting tidbit: If reelected, Hagan would be the first Democratic Senator from NC to win reelection since Sam Ervin in 1968. In 2010, tough, there was also talk about Burr holding the "cursed seat" but he came out winning handily.

[Miles]

McHenry was just named to be Vice Chairman of recruitment for the NRCC.

I was already skeptical that he would run for Senate and this seems to confirm my hunch.

[Miles]

Hoping my representative runs. (Can you guess who?)

You're from Boone, IIRC, ergo, Foxx.

Yes, that would be quite nice; she'll lose the Senate race and would be replaced by a (hopefully) less odious Republican in the House.

[Miles]

Joe Biden will be doing a fundraiser this weekend in New Orleans.

The state Republican Party has called on Landrieu to cancel the event citing the VP's gun control efforts. As usual though, her office handled these quibbles diplomatically:

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Last I checked, the Senator has almost $2 million in the bank, though she's a tick behind Cassidy.

[Miles]

I mentioned this in another thread but I think it should be here as well.

The latest survey of the landscape in LA was fromSouthern Media & Opinion Research in September of 2012.

It finds that Senator Landrieu is the most popular statewide official, with 62% giving her at least a "good" rating. For perspective, these are some others:

Landrieu: 62/28
Vitter: 52/21
Jindal: 51/45
Obama: 44/53

Cassidy is at 25/11 with 63% having no opinion of him.

I'm not sure I'd totally buy into these numbers, as the same firm had Romney leading by only 6. However, its polling in the previous two Senate races was pretty accurate; it projected Vitter by 18 in 2010 and showed Landrieu winning by 6 in 2008.