LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't count Landrieu out, but I'd certainly say she starts either even or a slight underdog. She loses, LA's Republicanization is complete.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy is the consensus candidate in LA. The only lock would be Jindal, who has his sights on bigger things than a Senate seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Some statewide offices will become vacant in 2015. Any idea when people will start announcing for either Senate race?

[RogueBeaver]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

[RogueBeaver]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

I've heard rumors that John Flemming might get in, but I seriously doubt that he actually does. I've also seen Dardenne's name floated, but he has a pretty good relationship with Cassidy. If Dardenne runs, he'll probably let Cassidy take on Landrieu while he'll wait for the Class III seat when Vitter runs for Governor.

The diaper-clad Birther as guv? Ugh. Just ugh. If there's a decent Dem nominee... since I doubt JNK can beat Vitter without the highly unlikely event of a straight-up endorsement by Jindal.

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt he was ever really interested in a Senate seat. He has his eyes on the ultimate prize, methinks.

[RogueBeaver]

Consensus please. Not a Dardenne fan but apart from Cassidy he's probably the best bet. On flip side, that would leave Vitter a clear path to the gubernatorial nomination. Ugh.

[RogueBeaver]

Senator Landrieu has been in the papers recently criticizing Jindal on his refusal to go with the Obamacare Medicare expansion. She says that he's putting his Presidential ambitions ahead of actually governing effectively (gee whiz, I've never heard that before about Jindal).

I have to say though, Landrieu is brave to stick by her support for Obamacare. 

Brave is one way of looking at it.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Boustany is staying in the House. Dardenne, Cassidy and Landry are all mulling runs against Landrieu.

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-boustany-will-not-run-for-senate/

[RogueBeaver]

Who do you think will ultimately take the NC-Sen plunge besides Tillis?

[RogueBeaver]

How strong of a candidate is he? Once he gets his name ID up that is. Granted Hagan's popularity is meh and she's a red-state Dem in a sixtch, but he doesn't give an impression of political horsepower. Also, what about Berry? She's been elected statewide multiple times so it wouldn't be her first rodeo.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Dardenne out, not that he was ever in. As Miles has often said, he's probably running for governor.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/03/15/dardenne-wont-challenge-landrieu-in-louisiana/

[RogueBeaver]

What's Fleming like? I haven't heard much about him. As for the runoff, better with a single Pub. Else Landrieu will throw all the mud back at the Pub nominee or throw a monkey wrench  that requires more time to counter, like in '02.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu is certainly not trimming her sails. The article says that neither Jindal nor Vitter are particularly enthusiastic about Cassidy? Also that Angelle is considered a potential candidate but more likely to look at a gubernatorial bid.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=F542AB51-457A-4A5F-8E7B-EDF3FB01D64C

[RogueBeaver]

I'm guessing that Angelle and Dardenne share some voters. How conservative is Angelle? I know he's a Mansionista, unlike Dardenne.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Cassidy is in.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=7gnoo859

[RogueBeaver]

Given that Landrieu's already at 50, Cassidy has his work cut out for him. The pincer will help but 'tis not a miracle worker.

[RogueBeaver]

Given that Landrieu's already at 50, Cassidy has his work cut out for him. The pincer will help but 'tis not a miracle worker.

This is what worries me though (from the SMOR survey out today):

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She's been unabashed on that subject and has even hinted that she supports gay marriage. I guess she figures if things go south better to go down with all flags flying, and if not she doesn't want to risk a further turnout decrease in a red state midtemr.

[RogueBeaver]

I was referring to GE numbers, not approvals. Otherwise agreed with your point.

[RogueBeaver]

National/local will probably determine the winner here, like in other red/blue races.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Fleming is out, Landry will clarify things next week.

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-fleming-opts-out-of-senate-race/

[RogueBeaver]

Good news, now Cassidy can go straight into the GE.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Ellmers will decide by June, Berger and Tillis when the session wraps up later this summer.

http://atr.rollcall.com/north-carolina-ellmers-will-decide-on-hagan-challenge-in-june/

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Landrieu raises $1.2 million in Q1, Cassidy 500k.

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-landrieu-raises-1-2-million-in-first-quarter/

[RogueBeaver]

So long as he's out of the Senate race.