MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Badger]

With Rice bowing out for the SoS nom, the overwhelming favorite for the job is John Kerry. This will of course trigger a special election. Per MSNBC First Watch:

"Here’s what you would need to know: The special would take place 145 to 160 days after Kerry resigns his seat. So if Kerry steps down on Jan. 21, the special election primary would have to take place between Friday, May 3 and Saturday, May 18. The special general would then have to take place between Friday, June 14 and Saturday, June 29."

Scott Brown is almost assuredly running and getting the GOP nom. So, handicap the race. Who gets in on the Dem side? Who likely wins the primary? What are the likely odds between Brown and the likely Dems in the special general? Will Patrick jump in?

Speculate away!

[Miles]

Bill Weld isn't closing the door to running for Kerry's seat. Though, its sounds like he'd understandably pass if Brown runs.

[morgieb]

Weld couldn't get past a primary even if Brown didn't run.

[Vosem]

Brown will probably win if he runs (not a given, as he may feel Gov is easier), and considering how quiet this race was before Warren dropped in in 2011 I'm actually unsure he'd receive a credible challenger. Perhaps Setti Warren will try to run -- he was the favorite for the Dem nomination before Elizabeth Warren entered the race (the two are of no relation). Deval Patrick could actually make it a race against Brown, but I doubt that's the case for Capuano or Markey.

If Brown doesn't run, the Democrats will have a fun clown-car primary, the winner of which will romp. Weld isn't running and is getting crushed in the primary if he does, independent of whatever else happens.

[Meeker]

One of the House members will run. They passed on the 2012 race because they would've had to give up their seat to try for a promotion. That's not the case with a special.

[Badger]

One of the House members will run. They passed on the 2012 race because they would've had to give up their seat to try for a promotion. That's not the case with a special.

Would Patrick running clear the Dem field of serious challengers? I suspect not, but want the local eye view.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One of the House members will run. They passed on the 2012 race because they would've had to give up their seat to try for a promotion. That's not the case with a special.

Would Patrick running clear the Dem field of serious challengers? I suspect not, but want the local eye view.

I think he could, if he played his cards right. If he got a "serious challenger," I would presume it just to be someone making a faux statewide bid to raise name recognition for a run at governor in 2014.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL @ people who think Brown would be the favorite to win. 2010 was a massive upset, against an absolutely awful dem candidate and in a climate of extreme unpopularity at the time. That's not going to happen again easily.

That's Likely-D at best, Safe-D if a big guy runs.

[Meeker]

One of the House members will run. They passed on the 2012 race because they would've had to give up their seat to try for a promotion. That's not the case with a special.

Would Patrick running clear the Dem field of serious challengers? I suspect not, but want the local eye view.

No local insight here; just my suspicion based on the evidence available.

[Keystone Phil]

Brown is surely running? I thought he was running for Governor.

Like in 2009-2010, I won't get my hopes up here (though I did believe in the final week or so. Even went up to Boston for the day to help on the same day Obama went to campaign for that joke candidate). The last Brown victory was more of a fluke. This is only in play if he's the nominee and even then I don't see him winning.

[© tweed]

I find it hard to believe the Obama admin. falls into this most obvious trap.

[Mr. Morden]

Patrick rumored to have sounded out Vicki Kennedy on filling the vacant seat during the interim period before the special election:

link

[Roemerista]

I don't think Brown is going to run. There is only so much his donors can do in four years.  Three multi-million dollar races, may be too much. And then he would need to expect it again in 2014. The run for governor or senate in 2014 seems more likely to me. I think its Baker, Weld, Brown, Tisei, or some Plymouth State Senator--in that order.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Scott Brown is painfully overhyped.

[Brittain33]

Scott Brown is painfully overhyped.

What makes you say that?

He performed respectably in 2012 and is still reasonably popular, and there are few Dems in Massachusetts who don't inspire some part of the electorate to bolt or stay at home. We rely heavily on the GOP having a crappy bench for our success.  

The guy himself is not a brilliant statesman or leader, but he's a very good politician.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Kerry will in fact be nominated for SoS:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166445.0

[Meeker]

What is the basis of the speculation that Brown will run for Governor? I know he hasn't denied it, but he also hasn't made any indication he wants to. It all seems to be rooted in chattering class thinking with nothing substantive to back it up.

[Brittain33]

He ran for the senate in the first place to raise his profile for a run for state office like AG. No one thought he'd actually win and go to Washington.

It may well be supposition, but it's grounded in the fact that running for governor is the most rational and rewarding choice he could make right now.

[Maxwell]

Brown for Governor would be smarter, so Baker is actually good too. Weld is easily my favorite, but its too late now, doubt he would make it through the primary.

[Brittain33]

At least no one has floated Andy Card's name yet.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think Brown is going to run. There is only so much his donors can do in four years.  Three multi-million dollar races, may be too much. And then he would need to expect it again in 2014. The run for governor or senate in 2014 seems more likely to me. I think its Baker, Weld, Brown, Tisei, or some Plymouth State Senator--in that order.

There's no reason why Brown can't run for Senate now and Governor in 2014... That being said... I personally think it would be Lt. Gov Tim Murray OR Rep. Capuano vs former Sen. Brown OR St Assembly Minority Leader Bradley Jones Jr.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I also don't know where people are getting the idea Brown would be a shoo-in for Senate from as well, what are the odds the Democrats will nominate someone as godawful as Coakley again?

[Vosem]

I also don't know where people are getting the idea Brown would be a shoo-in for Senate from as well, what are the odds the Democrats will nominate someone as godawful as Coakley again?

It's not the Democratic candidate, it's the Republican candidate...the logic goes like this: before Elizabeth Warren declared her run against him, Scott Brown was basically safe. Warren won't be running against him. Therefore, while he certainly took a hit from the 2012 campaign, his approval rating remains positive and he is better-known than any potential opponent and, considering the sort of voters with a propensity to turn out in special elections like this, the electorate will be more favorable: therefore, he is slightly favored. Also, while you mention Coakley, ironically Coakley herself and Deval Patrick, the two most popular statewide officials in MA today, are probably the two strongest Democratic candidates. Alas, Capuano is probably the likeliest candidate. Coakley is never running for the Senate again and Patrick doesn't want it.

The argument against this is obvious (Massachusetts is so Democratic none of this matters!), but we'll basically have to wait for polling, probably from PPP, to see if that's really the case. (I actually recall back in January of 2010 the first polling company to show Brown in the lead was PPP, 44-43. Correct me if I am wrong...ah, those were interesting times, politically speaking.)

[nclib]

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Incumbents often start out with good numbers. A second-tier Democratic challenger would have at worst kept it close. That said, Democrats certainly do need to take this race seriously.

I'd suggest Jim McGovern (MA-2, now MA-3), very liberal though represents a (by Mass. standards) culturally conservative district, and an area where Brown has performed well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rep. Markey seems to be all but in the race.