MA Special Election Watch Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Dukakis won't take it, doubts the Dems will switch the law again.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/michael-dukakis-will-not-be-interim-senator-if-kerry-resigns/

[Nichlemn]

Mark my words: Brown won't win, unless Obama's approvals massively plummet in the upcoming months.

Why not? He remained popular even as he lost, the special election turnout will be more Republican friendly (perhaps even to the extent of having voted for him in 2012), the Senate majority isn't up for grabs and Warren was a strong candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mark my words: Brown won't win, unless Obama's approvals massively plummet in the upcoming months.

Why not? He remained popular even as he lost, the special election turnout will be more Republican friendly (perhaps even to the extent of having voted for him in 2012), the Senate majority isn't up for grabs and Warren was a strong candidate.

1. He only won by 5 points in the best possible climate and against the most incompetent candidate ever.
2. He had the benefit of incumbency in 2012, now he'll bear the burden of a lost election.
3. He might not be outright unpopular, but he still seriously damaged himself with his 2012 campaign.
4. This is a federal office in Massachusetts, for Pete's sake. They just don't want Republicans there.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown supports AWB, said to be prepping run.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/19/senator-elect-elizabeth-warren-backs-assault-weapon-ban/Qj3ZdGwBRUlecaFMo6C4UP/story.html

[Brittain33]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

[RogueBeaver]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

[Franzl]

oh no...

[RogueBeaver]

I don't expect it to be more than 5 points either way, but still nice to start out like this. If the Dems are smart they go for Lynch to aim for the Southie vote... but it'll probably be another demolition derby like 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Well, if Dan Coats won an Indiana senate seat, running from North Carolina, then I don't see any problem.

[RogueBeaver]

He's often brought up but always said no- said no to running for both the Lieberman and Dodd seats in CT. Plus there's already another Kennedy serving in MA, even if he won't try upgrading for a couple of cycles, if ever.

Resident Bay Staters: Which Dems do you expect to run?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Markey seems most likely to me at this point, and probably has one of the better chances of victory if Brown runs. I'm really not convinced Brown will run for this.

Ben Downing, who's a state senator out of Pittsfield, is interested but starts at obvious disadvantages related to his current position and relative lack of exposure; the same, however, was true of Brown himself three years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Kinda amazing that Markey's been serving for nearly 40 years and most Bay Staters have never heard of him.

Also, Brown is trying to install one of his aides as state GOP chair- whose chief qual is that she's an aide.

[Brittain33]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Politico going for the ill-informed, sensationalist angle? Shock.

[Brittain33]

I don't expect it to be more than 5 points either way, but still nice to start out like this. If the Dems are smart they go for Lynch to aim for the Southie vote...

Going for Lynch would be devastating for the Dems. In a special election, you need core voters to turn out. Brown's going to win old conservadems most likely.

[Keystone Phil]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Politico going for the ill-informed, sensationalist angle? Shock.

Ill-informed? Does he not currently live in Connecticut or is a little thing like actually residing in the state just an issue for the "ill-informed and sensationalist?"

[Brittain33]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Politico going for the ill-informed, sensationalist angle? Shock.

Ill-informed? Does he not currently live in Connecticut or is a little thing like actually residing in the state just an issue for the "ill-informed and sensationalist?"

Cool that outage there, cowboy. I was talking about Politico doing a story about Kennedy as a candidate when he isn't one because he lives in CT.

[RogueBeaver]

Frank's open to an interim appointment.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/frank-not-saying-no-to-senate-appointment-152554.html?hp=r4

[Gass3268]

Frank's open to an interim appointment.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/frank-not-saying-no-to-senate-appointment-152554.html?hp=r4

That would be awesome!

[Talleyrand]

I hope State Senator Ben Downing runs. He seems like the kind of fresh outsider who'd be able to keep up with or outpace Brown on the campaign trail, although he'd start out with a big deficit.  But in the long-term, I think he'd be better suited for this campaign than an old hack like Markey, Capuano, and Lynch (And BTW, I have the utmost respect for Markey and Capuano, but I don't think they should, especially Markey. Why would he want to give up being one of the most powerful and senior members of the House to become a freshman Senator 100th in seniority at the age of 67?)

[HST1948]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

Just keep in mind that Warren started out at a similar disadvantage IIRC.

[SPC]

Frank's open to an interim appointment.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/frank-not-saying-no-to-senate-appointment-152554.html?hp=r4

Why would he be willing to give up his congressional district for a few months at best in the Senate? Is that a hint that he may be retiring in 2014?

[Nhoj]

Frank's open to an interim appointment.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/frank-not-saying-no-to-senate-appointment-152554.html?hp=r4

Why would he be willing to give up his congressional district for a few months at best in the Senate? Is that a hint that he may be retiring in 2014?

he retired this year.

[Roemerista]

Warren had 14 months to chip away those numbers. With the time frame of a special election low name rec is the major problem to be overcome.

[tmthforu94]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

Just keep in mind that Warren started out at a similar disadvantage IIRC.

I think he had actually tied it up right after she announced. Only one poll had her down by a lot.