He will almost certainly run as a Democrat.
Considering how very unpopular he is, that would be pretty horrible for the local Democratic Party. If he wins, a sufficiently moderate Republican (like, say, Robitaille) could win by running against Chafee; were he to run as an independent, a Democrat could run as anti-Chafee and thereby keep the seat in leftist hands. The threat of a primary challenge may yet scare him away, though considering how staunchly the Administration supports him for some reason, it also may not...
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