2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

Are there any seats in particular the FDP might want to focus on to win seats in the future, if they are stuck in 'below the threshold land'? Or is their vote too thinly distributed for that to ever be a possibility?

So far, their best constituencies have been Düsseldorf I (9.2 %), followed by Bonn (8.5%) and the surrounding Rhein-Sieg Kreis II (8.3 %). In Bonn, they had a vote-splitting agreement with the local CDU (FPTP vote CDU, PV FDP). So they might want to elect NRW head Lindner as new head of the federal party, and hope for better times to come after four years of opposition against a Grand Coalition.

[minionofmidas]

SPD gain Neukölln but CDU gain Halle

[Zanas]

Gregor Gysi may have spoken too quickly : it seems that die Linke may only end fourth political force and not third after all, it's rathor thin between them and Grünen.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Merkel unsurprisingly holds her seat, with 56,2% of the vote. (Compared to 45,0% for CDU on the list vote)

[Franknburger]

Hamburg (1,639 of 1,686 precincts), PV

CDU        32.2  +4.4
SPD        32.4  +5.0
Grüne     12.6  -3.0
Linke        8.7  -2.4
FDP          4.8  -8.4
AfD          4.1
Pirates     2.7

The math is that Hamburg will neither lift FDP nor AfD over 5%.
Seems SPD will take 6 out of the seven constituencies (2 gains), Hamburg-Nord will remain with the CDU.

[Franknburger]

What the hell - CDU gains Essen!
Plus Magdeburg, and two more Brandenburg constituencies.

Edit: CDU gains Essen III, Essen II remains SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Brandenburg
turnout 68.4 (+1.4)
CDU 34.8 (+11.2) SPD 23.1 (-2.0) Left 22.4 (-6.1) AfD 6.0 Greens 4.7 (-1.4) NPD 2.6 (0) FDP 2.5 (-6.8) Pirates 2.2 (-0.3)
CDU 9 direct seats (+8), SPD 1 (-4 I think), Left 0 (-4 I think)

McPom
turnout 65.4 (+2.4)
CDU 42.5 (+9.4) Left 21.5 (-7.5) SPD 17.8 (+1.2) AfD 5.6 Greens 4.3 (-1.2) NPD 2.7 (-0.5) FDP 2.2 (-7.6)
CDU 6 direct seats (0), Left 0 (-1) . State lost a seat. CDU gained one compared to notionals.

Schleswig Holstein
turnout 73.1 (-0.5)
CDU 39.2 (+7.0) SPD 31.6 (+4.8) Greens 9.4 (-3.3) FDP 5.6 (-10.6) Left 5.2 (-2.7) AfD 4.6
CDU 9, SPD 2 - no change.

[minionofmidas]

What the hell - CDU gains Essen!

I was actually slightly surprised they didn't four years ago. They won a similar (slightly more favorable IIRC) seat in 1994. The South Side of Essen is the most bourgeois bit in the Ruhr.
II and III are misnomers - either includes four of the city's nine boroughs, the ninth makes a constituency with Mülheim.

Anyways the real shocker is the margin this year.

Three votes. 59043 to 59040.

[Zanas]

It's now neck and neck between Linke and Grünen for third place (though CSU alone is very near behind), you can follow this on this page.

[minionofmidas]

Saxony Anhalt
turnout 62.0 (+1.5)
CDU 41.2 (+11.1) Left 23.9 (-8.4) SPD 18.2 (+1.4) AfD 4.2 (wtf?) Greens 4.0 (-1.2) FDP 2.6 (-7.7)
CDU sweeps direct seats; probably creates an overhang though I'm too lazy to do the math now.

[Franknburger]

What the hell - CDU gains Essen!

I was actually slightly surprised they didn't four years ago. They won a similar (slightly more favorable IIRC) seat in 1994. The South Side of Essen is the most bourgeois bit in the Ruhr.
II and III are misnomers - either includes four of the city's nine boroughs, the ninth makes a constituency with Mülheim.

Anyways the real shocker is the margin this year.

Three votes. 59043 to 59040.

RECOUNT !

[minionofmidas]

They call them "provisional final results" for a reason.

[minionofmidas]

And last time's closest constituency (in the double digits) is also in: Brigitte Zypries (SPD) extends her lead to 2.4 percentage points in Darmstadt.

[H. Ross Peron]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

The 'scandal' consists of the fact that back in the late 70s / early 80s, legalization of all nonviolent sexual relations was a radical but not entirely fringe notion. Basically.

Its much more than that: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/past-pedophile-links-haunt-german-green-party-a-899544.html

I'm not completely dissatisfied with the results tonight: the Stasi party and the luddites both appear to have lost votes and a grand coalition appears to be inevitable. Shame about the FDP even if I only liked them for their principled pro-nuclear stance tho'.

[minionofmidas]

The Stasi party has, of course, just barely missed out on a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

The Stasi party has, of course, just barely missed out on a majority.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it's lead by a woman who had her first oppositional thought on november 10th 1989.

[ag]

Well, it's lead by a woman who had her first oppositional thought on november 10th 1989.

You have access to her pre Nov. 10 thoughts? Otherwise, this sounds merely anti-Ossi

[Zanas]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

The 'scandal' consists of the fact that back in the late 70s / early 80s, legalization of all nonviolent sexual relations was a radical but not entirely fringe notion. Basically.

Its much more than that: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/past-pedophile-links-haunt-german-green-party-a-899544.html

I'm not completely dissatisfied with the results tonight: the Stasi party and the luddites both appear to have lost votes and a grand coalition appears to be inevitable. Shame about the FDP even if I only liked them for their principled pro-nuclear stance tho'.

So that's why I never missed you in this thread ! Please do keep not coming.

[Franknburger]

Wahlrecht.de reports an interesting fact - The CSU will probably get indirect overhang mandates. As almost 17% of Bavarian votes remain unconsidered since they fall on parties that missed the 5% threshold, the CSU will in first (state-by-state) distribution be entitled to at least 56 seats. However, participation in Bavaria was below federal average, meaning that the CSU may in federal distribution be entitled to less than these 56 seats,

[minionofmidas]

Well, it's lead by a woman who had her first oppositional thought on november 10th 1989.

You have access to her pre Nov. 10 thoughts? Otherwise, this sounds merely anti-Ossi

Not her thoughts, literally, but the psychological makeup of that woman is fairly readable if you'd had a look at her actual biography. It all makes sense, all the flip-flops argued with complete conviction. She's a completely unideological totalitarian. She doesn't care what is believed as long as dissent is not tolerated. She's her father's daughter. (And what she knows of how democracies work, she learned from Helmut Kohl, of course. Which is also very very obvious. Though she was kept in the dark about the financial side of Kohl's intraparty control, thankfully.)

[ag]

Not her thoughts, literally, but the psychological makeup of that woman is fairly readable if you'd had a look at her actual biography. It all makes sense, all the flip-flops argued with complete conviction. She's a completely unideological totalitarian. She doesn't care what is believed as long as dissent is not tolerated. She's her father's daughter. (And what she knows of how democracies work, she learned from Helmut Kohl, of course. Which is also very very obvious. Though she was kept in the dark about the financial side of Kohl's intraparty control, thankfully.)

You used, at least, one word is, at best, non-standard ("totalitarian"). And the other is outright offensive ("stasi").

I take no objection to your characterization of her as having learned from Helmut Kohl - considering, that I really liked the guy

[Franknburger]

Well, it's lead by a woman who had her first oppositional thought on november 10th 1989.

You have access to her pre Nov. 10 thoughts? Otherwise, this sounds merely anti-Ossi

As (mandatory) part of her PhD, she prepared an essay on "Socialist way of life". During her time at the East German Academy of Science, she was member of the Academy's FDJ chapter and in charge of "culture, agitation and propaganda".
I don't blame her for this - this was almost 30 years ago, and probably part what of what you had to do to promote your career then. I rather have problems with people from abroad coming up with 30 years old stories and trying to apply them to German politics today.

[minionofmidas]

NRW
turnout 72.5 (+1.0)
CDU 39.8 (+6.6) SPD 31.9 (+3.4) Greens 8.0 (-2.1) Left 6.1 (-2.3) FDP 5.2 (-9.6) AfD 3.9
Direct seats split 37-27 if I counted right.

[minionofmidas]

I don't blame her for this - this was almost 30 years ago, and probably part what of what you had to do to promote your career then.

Of course, parsons' children in the GDR weren't, usually, given the option to have careers (except the same one as their father).