2013 Elections in Germany

[Bacon King]

FINAL (Second Vote)

CDU: 34.1% (+6.9)
SPD: 25.7% (+2.7)
Die Linke: 8.6% (-3.3)
Greens: 8.4% (-2.3)
CSU: 7.4% (+0.9)
FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

(CDU/CSU combined is 41.5%, (+7.8 ) if you are too lazy for math)

[minionofmidas]

Sooo... with everything in (sort of), what's the seat count?

If I'd kept up with the notional seat tallies, I might tell you. As is, waiting for the Bundeswahlleiter to do the math will be easier and quicker.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Methinks tomorrow shall be a map day...

[jaichind]

So it seems we will go into a CDU/CSU-SPD Grand coalition.  This could be very bad for SPD next election.  One way out is half way through the term, find an excuse to break the alliance and go for a SPD-Green-Linke government since enough time has passed since the SPD promise of not going into such a coalition.  

[Beezer]

Not represented in parliament third strongest party. Hooray!

[Beezer]

So it seems we will go into a CDU/CSU-SPD Grand coalition.  This could be very bad for SPD next election.  One way out is half way through the term, find an excuse to break the alliance and go for a SPD-Green-Linke government since enough time has passed since the SPD promise of not going into such a coalition.  

And then drop below 20% in 2017?

I can't see them changing course up until the next election. Maybe by that point we'll have had a couple of RRG coalitions at the state level and the prospect won't be too terrifying to the party leadership.

[jaichind]

In the end, the CDU/CSU are not really winners.  If they just worked to loan some votes for FDP they could be going to a government with a weaker FDP where they pretty much call the shots.  Now they have to deal with a SPD who got burned the last time they were in a coalition and will be demanding their pound of flesh for a coalition.

[Franknburger]

FINAL (Second Vote)

CDU: 34.1% (+6.9)
SPD: 25.7% (+2.7)
Die Linke: 8.6% (-3.3)
Greens: 8.4% (-2.3)
CSU: 7.4% (+0.9)
FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

(CDU/CSU combined is 41.5%, (+7.8 ) if you are too lazy for math)

So the FDP finally comes in before AfD. Might change tomorrow's narrative a bit (though not that much...).
I checked a bit on constituencies. So far I haven't found any where the Greens gained, the loss seems to be quite universal (of course higher where they used to be stronger, e,g, Inner Berlin and Inner Hamburg, and smaller in the East German pampa, where there wasn't much for them to lose form the beginning).

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, maybe whoever governs with Merkel this time realizes that posts in cabinet don't help him, hard and fast and immediate law changes (that the public likes, not the ones the FDP did right away) do.

[Beezer]

In the end, the CDU/CSU are not really winners.  If they just worked to loan some votes for FDP they could be going to a government with a weaker FDP where they pretty much call the shots.  Now they have to deal with a SPD who got burned the last time they were in a coalition and will be demanding their pound of flesh for a coalition.

Yeah, everybody lost tonight, even those who gained votes (CDU/CSU, SPD). Truly a Pyrrhic victory for Mrs. Merkel.

[Bacon King]

Not represented in parliament third strongest party. Hooray!

It could be worse: the Greek Parliamentary elections in May of last year had "other parties" polling first overall with 19%, and their threshold is only 3%

[minionofmidas]

In the end, the CDU/CSU are not really winners.  If they just worked to loan some votes for FDP they could be going to a government with a weaker FDP where they pretty much call the shots.  Now they have to deal with a SPD who got burned the last time they were in a coalition and will be demanding their pound of flesh for a coalition.

Yeah, everybody lost tonight, even those who gained votes (CDU/CSU, SPD). Truly a Pyrrhic victory for Mrs. Merkel.

The German People has gloriously upheld its (recent) reputation as being unpollable, though.

[RogueBeaver]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a press release, official results will be announced at 2.45 a.m. - so in about 45 minutes

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/presse/w13031_ankuendigung_vorl_ergebnis.html

[minionofmidas]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183 192, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

183 would be a majority. I'm assuming a typo. These are the numbers I found on wahlrecht.de.

[Vosem]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

Pretty sure that comes out to a 311-310 C(letter)U majority. Assuming Steinbrueck sticks to his promise not to form a Coalition if the C(letter)U has a majority, and an agreement can't be reached with a very special wavelength, the C(letter)U will be having to rely on a 1-seat majority to elect Merkel in the secret ballot discussed upthread.

[Hash]

FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

[Lief 🗽]

Merkel should intentionally sabotage the grand coalition negotiations so that another election has to be held. Based on her personal popularity and the closeness of this result, I have to assume she'd gain enough seats in a redo election to have a majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel should intentionally sabotage the grand coalition negotiations so that another election has to be held. Based on her personal popularity and the closeness of this result, I have to assume she'd gain enough seats in a redo election to have a majority.

AfD would probably enter the Bundestag in a redo, which means CDU/CSU still wouldn't win a majority on their own.

[Bacon King]

Merkel should intentionally sabotage the grand coalition negotiations so that another election has to be held. Based on her personal popularity and the closeness of this result, I have to assume she'd gain enough seats in a redo election to have a majority.

The caveat there is that it's up to President Gauck whether to call for new elections or to allow Merkel to govern with a plurality.

[jaichind]

FINAL (Second Vote)

CDU: 34.1% (+6.9)
SPD: 25.7% (+2.7)
Die Linke: 8.6% (-3.3)
Greens: 8.4% (-2.3)
CSU: 7.4% (+0.9)
FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

(CDU/CSU combined is 41.5%, (+7.8 ) if you are too lazy for math)

So the FDP finally comes in before AfD. Might change tomorrow's narrative a bit (though not that much...).

Yep.  I noticed that too.  At least FDP beat out AfD, for now.  If it is a Grand Coalition it keeps the FDP alive as the anti-establishment party of the Right as opposed to AfD.

[minionofmidas]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

Pretty sure that comes out to a 311-310 C(letter)U majority.

Obviously impossible given the election law - the seat distribution is proportional, which these figures are not.

And, well, three of four of his figures are the same figures I found at a rather reliable (but also nonoffical place) and the fourth one there fits the reality, so...

[Franknburger]

Methinks tomorrow shall be a map day...

Result maps are already online here
http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html

and should come up shortly here
http://bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/wahlatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

Swing and trend maps, however, are not yet available online (just saying...).

[Hash]

[Vosem]

Based on the provisional results, seat projection is Union 311, SPD 183, Linke 64, Green 63. So close... Grand it is.

Pretty sure that comes out to a 311-310 C(letter)U majority.

Obviously impossible given the election law - the seat distribution is proportional, which these figures are not.

And, well, three of four of his figures are the same figures I found at a rather reliable (but also nonoffical place) and the fourth one there fits the reality, so...

Yeah, it's actually SPD 192 (and you made that point upthread, I've just noticed). A Grand, Tyrian coalition it is.