2013 Elections in Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the closest to a non-CSU seat in Bavaria was in Nuremberg not Munich? In some respects that actually makes more sense...

Swing and trend maps, however, are not yet available online (just saying...).

At the very least mapping the FDP collapse seems important.

[Franknburger]

The Hamburg referendum on re-purchase of the energy grids has apparently been won by the proponents. With 1,677 of 1,686 precincts counted, it stands 50.9% "Yes". The "Yes" lead is a bit more than 15,000 votes, a difference too high to be overcome by the outstanding 9 precincts (which should at maximum have some 1,000 voters each).

The interesting thing is that the referendum was only supported by Greens and Linke, but opposed by SPD, CDU and FDP. A substantial part of SPD federal election voters must have voted against that party's referendum recommendation - quite a blow for Hamburg's SPD mayor Olaf Scholz.
Furthermore, the referendum did not help to boost turnout. 2013 turnout in Hamburg was 69.9%, 1.4% down from 2009.
I am not quite sure what to make out of this- a referendum expected to boost turnout and Grüne/ Linke votes achieving none of it, nut nevertheless being passed...

[DC Al Fine]

Results using D'Hondt, 1% Threshold, and 598 Seats

CDU/CSU: 256
SPD: 159
Green: 53
Linke: 52
FDP: 29
AfD: 29
Pirate: 13
NPD: 7

We would presumably have a grand coalition under this more proportional scenario.

[Leftbehind]

Well that's the best that could be expected given what was known, and with FDP crashing out of parliament I'll take that!

[rob in cal]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

[Franknburger]

ATTENTION: My original post was on the wrong year (2009 election)

CDU PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 10%-steps, from <20 to >50.

2009

2013


Best 2013 result, as always, in Catholic Cloppenburg-Vechta (63.2%, up from 54.5%). Below 20% in 2009 in central and eastern Berlin, in 2013 only in Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (15.4%).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Naive question(s).

Who draws the Bundestag constituencies? Is there a possibility of gerrymandering?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

Left/right is a most arbitrary and simplicistic and therefore meaningless categorization in this context. You're implying that voters of the FDP and the NPD want to see the same or at least similar policies implemented in Germany. But this isn't the case.

Also, the FDP had a federal chairman of Vietnamese descent for the past few years. If they had the power to do so, the NPD would strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Vietnam.

These are so diametrically opposed views of not only ideology but also reality and human dignity that it doesn't make really make much sense to put FDP and NPD in one category and SPD and Greens in another. On the contrary, SPD, Greens, and FDP belong in one category, and the NPD in an entirely different one.

[Franknburger]

ATTENTION: My original post was on the wrong year (2009 election)

SPD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 7.5%-steps, from <15 to >37.5.

2009


2013


Best results, as always, on the Ruhr (Gelsenkirchen 44,  Herne-Bochum 43.8, Duisburg II 43). Weakest in Saxony (Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge 10.9, Bautzen I 12.2, Ergebirgskreis I 12.7).

[njwes]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

Left/right is a most arbitrary and simplicistic and therefore meaningless categorization in this context.

The FDP had a federal chairman of Vietnamese descent for the past few years. If they had the power to do so, the NPD would strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Vietnam.

These are so diametrically opposed views of not only ideology but also reality and human dignity that it doesn't make really make much sense to put FDP and NPD in one category and SPD and Greens in another. On the contrary, SPD, Greens, and FDP belong in one category, and the NPD in an entirely different one.

Well that touched a nerve... How bout you just forget about the NDP; they only go ~1.4%. Even excluding them, "rob in cal" isn't far off in his assertion

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

Left/right is a most arbitrary and simplicistic and therefore meaningless categorization in this context.

The FDP had a federal chairman of Vietnamese descent for the past few years. If they had the power to do so, the NPD would strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Vietnam.

These are so diametrically opposed views of not only ideology but also reality and human dignity that it doesn't make really make much sense to put FDP and NPD in one category and SPD and Greens in another. On the contrary, SPD, Greens, and FDP belong in one category, and the NPD in an entirely different one.

Well that touched a nerve... How bout you just forget about the NDP; they only go ~1.4%. Even excluding them, "rob in cal" isn't far off in his assertion

No, my point still stands even if we ignore the NPD.

A party of the supposed "right" could still be ideologically closer to a party of the supposed "left" than another party of the "right".

It's also possible that a voter has the CDU as their first preference, followed by the Greens as their second preference and hence wanting a CDU/Green coalition while totally disapproving of the SPD. I happen to know such people.

So, it's just a too simplicistic point of view. Boundaries are drawn where it doesn't make much sense.

[Franknburger]

Linke PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 5%-steps, from <5 to >20

2009


2013


Best results, as always, in East Berlin (Lichtenberg 34.6, down from 41.2, Marzahn-Hellersdorf 32.9 down from 40.8 ). Generally weak in the West German countryside and the Munich sub- and exurbs.Worst 2013 results: Starnberg (2.6), Rottal-Inn (2.7), München-Land (2.8 ), Cloppenburg-Vechta-(2.8 ).
Note the collapse in the Saarland after the Lafontaine effect has faded away. Economic development in and around Berlin, Dresden and Leipzig has reduced the protest vote there.

[Franknburger]

Green PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 5%-steps, from <5 to >20

2009


2013


Best result, as always, in Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (20.8, down from 27.4), followed by Freiburg (19.8, down from 22). Weakest in peripheral East Germany (Erzgebirgskreis I 2.5, down from 3.8, Anhalt 2.6, down from 3.7, Elbe-Elster 2.7, down from 3.5).
Outside of Baden-Würtemberg, the exurban appeal has faded, and the Green map is returning towards the traditional large cities & University towns pattern.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Newly elected Cemile Giousouf, the first Muslim member of the Bundestag for the CDU. She's a Greek Muslim of Turkish descent born in Northrhine-Westphalia.




And as expected, we also got our first black Bundestag member ever, even though he failed to win the direct seat in Halle: Karamba Diaby.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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The constituencies are drawn by the Bundestag (= Bundestag majority/administration). There is an independent boundary commission, but their proposals often get ignored in a process. So gerrymandering is of course possible, but neither easily achieved in the Bundestag elections, because the voting patterns don't vary that much (are not that higly polarized) within the regions. And there are not much benefits achieveable, even less so by now as the overhang seats are now fully compensated.

German traditions in distribution of constituencies are not to divide municpalities and administrative districts (Landkreise), which is supposed by the electoral law, too, and to keep the constituencies as they are as long as possible (on the benefit of the imcumbents). The deviation allowed for each is +-25 percent to achieve both goals mainly. This could be used for gerrymandering though.

There also was a tradition of doing no redistribution, even with big population shifts, at all (e.g. from 1990 to 2002), but that was overthrown by the constitutional court at one time, which stated that the distribution to the federal states must equal their population.

The most visible possible gerrymander is poosibly the redistribution for 2002 (left untouched until today) in Berlin, when the inner parts of East and West Berlin were merged in several constituencies. This lead (and one could argue that was the main cause to do it) to the PDS losing two direct seats (3 are needed to get proportional seats if the party is under the five percent threshold.)

At the elections in the states gerrymandering is much more likely for the constituencies being smaller and so local strongholds in towns, villages and city districts matter much more. Not all state electoral laws have full compensation of overhang seats. For instance, in Saxony (and that could matter next year) there are only as much compensation seats as overhang seats are achieved (with CDU at around 40 percent statewide but gaining almost all FPTP seats this rule givs them a slight advantage). So they tried to crack the Left Party stronghold of Grünau (a huge 1980s "prefabricated building" area which has quite uniform demographical and voting patterns and a distinct identity), and merge the remnants with CDU leaning suburbia, some of it divided by several miles of alluvial wood with only one very small street commuting the two. They did similar moves in other parts of the state. After much local protest they left Grünau intact, but kept the attachment of some nearer suburbia.

[Franknburger]

FDP, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Scaling is a bit tricky here. First, colouring in 5%-steps, from <5 to >20 (note that in 2009, the FDP reached above 5% in every single constituency, while in 2013 they did nowhere pass 10%).

2009


2013


This is 2013 in 2.5% colour scaling:

While the small-town vote, especially in their Würtemberg strongholds (losses around 15% or more), has collapsed, they have held on relatively well in the wealthy suburbs. Strongest 2013 constituencies were Düsseldorf II (9.2, - 10.8 ), Main-Taunus (8.6, -13.1), Bonn (8.5,-10.5), and München-Land (8.5, -11.3).
Their 2013 result was weakest in Berlin-Lichtenberg (1.6, -5), Berlin-Marzahn-Hellersdorf (1.7,-6), and Rostock (1.9, -7.8 ).

Edit: Note that they over performed in 2013 in states where the party is lead by "social-liberal mavericks", namely NRW (Lindner) and Schleswig-Holstein (Kubicki). These two are pretty likely to lead the FDP in future.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP chairman Philipp Rösler has announced his resignation, apparently along with the party's entire executive committee. Tabula rasa.

[Franknburger]

FDP chairman Philipp Rösler has announced his resignation, apparently along with the party's entire executive committee. Tabula rasa.

And Schleswig-Holstein FDP head Kubicki has stated he is ready to take over responsibility in this difficult time for the federal FDP...

[minionofmidas]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

Which is why, last night, I was actually a little angry at Bernd Riexinger scoring cheap points against Greens and Left for refusing to use the leftist majority... the German people clearly did not elect and did not want a leftist majority, and governing with it would end in disaster kthxbye Bernd.

Also, ~54% (counting FW which may be a bit iffy).

[minionofmidas]

Also, the FDP had a federal chairman of Vietnamese descent for the past few years. If they had the power to do so, the NPD would strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Vietnam.

Not if they have to govern in a coalition with him! ( (c) TITANIC, months before the election. Genscher saying what you did, though in fewer words, Rösler giving my reply)

[minionofmidas]

Edit: Note that they over performed in 2013 in states where the party is lead by "social-liberal mavericks", namely NRW (Lindner) and Schleswig-Holstein (Kubicki). These two are pretty likely to lead the FDP in future.

Lindner is not a maverick.

He is, however, a comparatively popular FDPler (not being a cabinet minister must have helped) and, yes, pretty likely to lead the FDP in future should he want it.

[minionofmidas]

German traditions in distribution of constituencies are not to divide municpalities and administrative districts (Landkreise), which is supposed by the electoral law, too, and to keep the constituencies as they are as long as possible (on the benefit of the imcumbents). The deviation allowed for each is +-25 percent to achieve both goals mainly. This could be used for gerrymandering though.

The law states that constituencies should not deviate by more than 15 and must not deviate by more than 25 (the relevant figure being citizen population). The Bundestag likes to ignore the first half of that harder than the Commission does. The second is, however, ironclad - any constituency that gets dangerously near must be redrawn immediately, as a deviation over 25% on election day could lead to the whole election being annulled.
There was a minor boundary change between the two Duisburg constituencies this year, in order to keep them both within parameters and within the city. Obviously this is a stopgap measure - some day soon, some suburban municipality will have to be drafted into one of the Duisburg constituencies.

And then elsewhere, malapportionment is just ridiculous. Have a look at Lower Bavaria for a laugh - four constituencies near the very lower end of the range and one very near the upper.
Also, Hamburg-Mitte which is I the largest constituency in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Green executive committee also plans to resign, but this could be more of a symbolic nature. The new executive committee could very well be identical to the old, at least partially.

Unless Özdemir and Roth are to become the new parliamentary leaders in which case there will be indeed new co-chairmen. Neither Trittin's nor Künast's position as parliamentary leaders are very safe at this point... Trittin's probably even less so than Künast's.

[Franknburger]

AfD PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from to >6.



Best results in Gorlitz (8.2), Sächs. Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (7.9) and Ergebirgskreis I (7.6). A look at the map suggests that it wasn't that much Greece's, but rather the Czech Republic's and Poland's EU membership that motivated a lot of Eastern AfD voters.

Their Bavarian counterparts are obviously having far less problems with the Czech Republic's  EU membership. AfD was weakest in the CDU stronghold of Cloppenburg-Vechta (2.3), followed by Mittelems (2.5), Borken II (2.7), and Osnabruck City (2.7). Apparently, Western Lower Saxony and NRW is quite happy about their EU neighbour (at least as long as it does not come to playing football against each other).

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

38.8% [+5.0] CDU/CSU
27.0% [+4.0] SPD
  8.6%  [-3.3] Left
  8.5%  [-2.2] Greens
  5.1% [+5.1] AfD
  5.0%  [-9.6] FDP (above threshold, something like 5.04 or so)
  2.1% [+0.1] Pirates
  1.3% [+1.3] FW
  1.1%  [-0.4] NPD
  2.5% Others (none of those with more than 1%)

Turnout: 73.4% (+2.6%)

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

Let's see:

CDU/CSU: underestimated by 2.7
SPD: overestimated by 1.3
Left: predicted exacly
Greens: overestimated by 0.1
AfD: overestimated by 0.4
FDP: overestimated by 0.2
Pirates: underestimated by 0.1
FW: overestimated by 0.3
NPD: underestimated by 0.2

I got 7/9 within 0.5%