2013 Elections in Germany

[You kip if you want to...]

Forgive me if this answer has already been explained, but how come there won't be a SPD/Green/The Left coalition? I know that the SPD has ruled it out, but why?

Die Linke are toxic. Associated with the GDR, etc.

[buritobr]

Is it still possible a red-red-green coalition?

Steinbruck promised during the campaign to not build this coalition, and conceded to Merkel after the 41,5% to the Union.

But what's if no agreement between the Union and one of the other parties is reached after one month and the people get tired?

A red-red-green coalition could be considered not representative of the will of the German people because the left-wing parties had together 43% of the vote and the right-wing parties had 53%. But rules are rules... According to rules that existed since 1949, the left-wing parties got a slight majority of the Bundestag (This is a good rule, because the FRG has a much more stable political system than the Republic of Weimar had).



George W Bush became the president of the United States without having the majority of the popular vote.

[Bacon King]

Is it still possible a red-red-green coalition?

Not really at all.

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Wouldn't take a month no matter what happens. Per German law, if no Chancellor candidate has been elected by a Parliamentary majority after two weeks, there's one final vote, then the German President picks between making the plurality winner of that vote the Chancellor or hold new elections. And Germany has very strict requirements for a no confidence vote so Merkel could easily manage a full term minority government; a majority of Parliament not only has to vote her out but there also needs to be a majority agreeing to her replacement for her to be removed as Chancellor.

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A red-red-green coalition most definitely wouldn't be considered the will of the people because the majority of all three of those party's voters almost certainly would oppose such a coalition.

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This is basically comparing apples and oranges.

[Famous Mortimer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[ERvND]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

No. I don't always defend the SPD leadership, but in this case, I have to.

If a red-red-green government was formed - especially in this situation, with Merkel as the only real winner of the election - the media outcry would be unimaginable. Many media have close ties to the CDU/CSU (especially the Springer Group, but also the private TV stations and a lot of local newspapers), while other independent national media were also very sympathetic towards Merkel. You probably can't conceive of the journalistic storm they'd unleash against a red-red-green government.

I still remember the situation in 2002, when the re-elected red-green government discussed some tax increases. The media response was unbelievable. Some went so far as to call for violent resistance against the tax hike. And this was only the red-green coalition, without Linke (back then, PDS) support.

Now, if they tried to "overthrow" Merkel after she almost got an absolute majority, it would be certainly perceived as a coup d'état, with even worse media response. I am sure there'd also be assassination attempts against SPD and Green leaders; some media would even condone this.

SPD and Greens want to govern for sure, but they are also not completely insane. Their leaders and members want to live normal lifes, without having to fear for their own and their families' personal security. So it's very sensible to rule out a red-red-green government.

[Kitteh]

Going for a RRG coalition would probably be the good thing for the SPD in the long run, even if it'd get wiped out in the next election, by virtue of shifting the Overton Window and making Die Linke an acceptable coalition partner for future elections. These cordon sanitaire policies usually last exactly as long as all the major parties are willing to maintain them and then die out once the line is broken even slightly-see the similar cases of far-right parties across Europe. I agree though that now is not the time for that; given the narrow result here that might even give the CDU a majority on SPD defections. Sometime like 2005 would have been much better.

ofc that ignores the question of whether the SPD leadership even would want that; I think at this point they've moved so far to the right that they're closer to the CDU than Linke.

[Vosem]

These cordon sanitaire policies usually last exactly as long as all the major parties are willing to maintain them and then die out once the line is broken even slightly

The line was broken slightly in 2009, when a Red-Red coalition (SPD-Linke) was formed for the first time at the state level in Brandenburg (though I believe to this day the Greens have never been in a government with Die Linke). Still, there's a difference between the East, where Linke is seen as a 'legitimate' left-wing party, and the West, where they're seen as unacceptable extremists, so what works at the state level in the East may not work at a federal level.

[Vosem]

And on another note, is there a good English-language source anywhere for German state elections since 1949? Wikipedia has good articles on ones since 2000, but I can find only very little from before then.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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Not quite, they had a red-green coalition tolerated by the PDS in Sachsen-Anhalt from 1994 to 1998 (was continued as SPD minority administration tolerated by PDS until 2002) and a red-red coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern from 1998 to 2006. And Berlin was governed by this constellation, too, from 2002 to 2011. Brandenburg is now the fourth (or third, if don't want to count the 'Magdeburg model'). The line does not exist in the East, anymore.  So we really don't understand Westerners' fear of them. Still the SPD is very keen to deny them the post of the prime minister at all cost, though, as could be seen in Thuringia in 2009.

The narrative of the SPD leadership, why red-red would not be possible at the federal level changed in the last years from "In the East they are the remnants of the SED" over "In the East they are quite reasonable, but in the West they have Oskar Lafontaine, whom we hate and who hates us" to "In the East they are quite reasonable, but in the West they have real left-wingers, but maybe in 2017 we should govern with them, anyway". This is a quite consistent position, isn't it? ;-)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

So do you guys think the FDP is gone for good or will they make a comeback?

I'm leaning towards the former option -- as someone posted, they still got something like 2% loan-vote this time, and with the CDU so close to an absolute majority, those people should theoretically go back to the CDU.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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Greens (only represented in the Bundestag by 8 East Germans from 1990 to 1994, but in many state parliaments) and PDS (only represented by two district members in the Bundestag from 2002 to 2005, but represented in all East German state parliaments) both came back, so I would not say never on this. They are still represented in nine state parliaments. Three of them (Brandenburg, Saxony, Thuringia) are up in the next year, all in the East, all with a very low floor for the FDP (1999 state elections: 1,9%, 1,1%, 1,1%).
They have nothing to gain here and it is even possible, that they are replaced by AfD (that is FDP at steroids to some extent) in all three of them, which would be a large nail to their coffin.

So I don't think it will be a short recovery, unless government formation becomes a total mess in the next weeks and we see early federal elections for that reason for the first time. If they don't get back into the Bundestag in the 2017 elections, I think they will be gone for good.

[palandio]

@Sibboleth: Thank you for the map, I like it. Can you also make a map that shows relative changes (i.e. from 15% to 6% means -60%, from 10% to 3% means -70%)? That would be great!

Results from a place where I sometimes like to go by bike (it's a bit hilly):

Voting age population: 332
Voters: 190 (There are also postal voters, so turnout is higher; postal ballots are not counted in the village polling station, but down in town)
Valid PR votes: 190
CSU 153 (80.53%)
SPD 8 (4.21%)
REP 6 (3.16%)
Bavaria Party 6 (3.16%)
Free Voters 6 (3.16%)
FDP 5 (2.63%)
AfD 4 (2.11%)
Animal Welfare 1 (0.53%)
The Left 1 (0.53%)

No, I didn't forget the Greens, Pirates etc., they're all at 0.00%.

@ n/e rep butafly: The FDP has definitely a good chance for a comeback in my eyes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Christian Lindner at the helm pretty much rules out that the FDP becomes a populist protest party now.

But the party must try to gain credibility again. Four years ago, they almost solely ran on a platform of lowering taxes. Those tax cuts never happened. In this election, they promised dual citizenships for immigrants and adoption rights for gays among other things. However, the FDP had voted against these very proposals in the Bundestag about half a year ago. They must undo the deep-rooted impression that their own platform is completely fake and based on lies and compulsive flip-flopping.

[Zanas]

@Sibboleth: Thank you for the map, I like it. Can you also make a map that shows relative changes (i.e. from 15% to 6% means -60%, from 10% to 3% means -70%)? That would be great!

Results from a place where I sometimes like to go by bike (it's a bit hilly):

Voting age population: 332
Voters: 190 (There are also postal voters, so turnout is higher; postal ballots are not counted in the village polling station, but down in town)
Valid PR votes: 190
CSU 153 (80.53%)
SPD 8 (4.21%)
REP 6 (3.16%)
Bavaria Party 6 (3.16%)
Free Voters 6 (3.16%)
FDP 5 (2.63%)
AfD 4 (2.11%)
Animal Welfare 1 (0.53%)
The Left 1 (0.53%)

No, I didn't forget the Greens, Pirates etc., they're all at 0.00%.

@ n/e rep butafly: The FDP has definitely a good chance for a comeback in my eyes.

I would be this one Linke voter should I live there !

Also, 'Muricans should cease speaking about libertarians in any European context whatsoever. This doesn't exist here. At all. Period. Now please do keep on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Status of coalition talks:

CSU doesn't want to govern with the Greens, parts of the SPD don't want to govern with the CDU. Nobody wants to do Red-Red-Green except for the Left.

[Velasco]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

There's a red-red-green majority only because FDP and AfD failed to reach the threshold by a few decimals. It would be stupid trying that coalition now when the center-to-the left parties have been actually defeated. Merkel won. Period. However, I think that the cordon sanitaire around Die Linke cannot last.

It's fascinating that map in the Berliner Morgenpost.

[palandio]

I found an even higher CSU PR vote share, and it's even a whole Gemeinde (very small though).
Oberneukirchen (constituency of Altötting):
Voting age population 633
Voters 475
CSU 391 (82.7%)
SPD 18 (3.8%)
FDP 16 (3.4%)
Grüne 12 (2.5%)
NPD 9 (1.9%)
ÖDP 5 (1.1%)
AfD 5 (1.1%)
Linke 5 (1.1%)
Piraten 4 (0.8%)
Bavaria Party 3 (0.6%)
REP 1 (0.2%)
The Violets (Spiritual politics) 1 (0.2%)
MLPD 1 (0.2%) [That's actually above average ]
The Women 1 (0.2%)
Free Voters 1 (0.2%)

I think it's wrong to confound libertarianism with classical liberalism, ordoliberalism etc. There are no relevant libertarian parties/movements in the American sense in Europe.

The map in the Berliner Morgenpost is very nice. Munich has an election atlas here:
http://www.mstatistik-muenchen.de/wahlatlas_btw2013/html5/atlas.html?indicator=i4&date=Anteile&indicator2=i13&date2=gesamt

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's a red-red-green majority only because FDP and AfD failed to reach the threshold by a few decimals. It would be stupid trying that coalition now when the center-to-the left parties have been actually defeated. Merkel won. Period.

Wouldn't be that much of a problem if Merkel were unpopular and/or the CDU had actually lost a few votes in the election IMO. I don't think that many people care how many votes the alleged right-wing parties and the alleged left-wing parties won combined.

But the public perception is that Merkel won and deserves to remain Chancellor. So it would come close to political suicide to remove her from office in the current climate.

[Beezer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

If there was a RRG coalition, the SPD would likely drop below 20% at the next federal election.

As others have written, the electoral outcome showed that the people want Merkel to stay on as chancellor. Yes, strictly speaking you have a leftist majority in parliament but this definitely wasn't the outcome that a majority of Germans wanted. Schwarz-Gelb won 20.2 million votes compared to 18.7 for RRG, a gap that is actually about 365,000 votes bigger than the one we had four years ago. IMO the SPD should enter the next election open to the idea of a RRG coalition, then we'd definitely get a good sense if a "true majority" exists for that kind of governing coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw it occurred to me that we now have an usually high number of parties who have not entered the Bundestag, but are represented in various state parliaments. The FDP, the Pirates, the NPD, the Free Voters... (and there's also the SSW who I don't count here because even though they're part of the governing coalition in Schleswig-Holstein they don't run in national elections or state elections other than Schleswig-Holstein).

I think that's quite a fragmentation compared to 10 years ago or so. Could we call it the eight-party system or the four-plus-four system?

[You kip if you want to...]

Status of coalition talks:

CSU doesn't want to govern with the Greens, parts of the SPD don't want to govern with the CDU. Nobody wants to do Red-Red-Green except for the Left.

Does Germany do minority government?

[Zanas]

No, but I think they will if they must.

[Leftbehind]

Beautiful.

[Franknburger]

Hamburg election results by city district (vote-by-mail not considered):
http://statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2013_hh_bund_ve/

For fun and comparison, here the FDP map:

Unlike the Munich, Stuttgart and Frankfurt metros, the posh Hamburg suburbs are inside the city (state) limits (Elbvororte, Walddörfer).

EDIT: In case you wonder about a few quarters:
Francop, to the south-west, is a sparsely  populated, still rather rural district (some 600 inhabitants) where the "Alte Land", Europe's largest fruit-growing area, starts. Prime reason for it being part of Hamburg is that it may serve for industrial and port expansion (the Airbus assembly site is just north of it).

The districts to the south-east are also mostly agricultural, primarily serving greenhouse horticulture (early medieval  Dutch settlers draining the marches and doing the other stuff Dutch are good at doing..).