2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

As a SPD supporter, and from a purely strategic point of view, I'd prefer a black-green coalition.

A new grand coalition, as has been explained many times, would probably lead to the final end of the SPD as a major party.

A CDU minority government, tolerated by the SPD, has some appeal. But the risk is far too high that Merkel induces new elections after a period of time, almost inevitably leading to a real absolute majority or at least a new black-yellow coalition.

Black-green, on the other hand, can benefit the SPD. I think that almost one third of their voters, and also some members, would immediately switch to the SPD*. In the long run, Merkel would destroy the Greens as she did with SPD and FDP, and a big number of their supporters would come back to the SPD*.

The problem is that the post works just as well with Greens and SPD reversed, and the Greens know this just as well as you do. Though "and the Left" needs to be entered where I put asterisks - in either post.

[Franknburger]

Found a couple more pages on results per city district / community
Dortmund: http://www.ruhrnachrichten.de/lokales/dortmund/info-grafik/Wahl-Karte-Die-Ergebnisse-aller-302-Wahllokale-Dortmunds;art93158,2133752
Essen: https://webapps.essen.de/instantatlas/wahlatlas/atlas.html?indicator=i0&date=2009&indicator2=i0&date2=2013
Stuttgart: http://statistik.stuttgart.de/wahlen/atlas/java/bundestagswahl/2013/karte.htm
Düsseldorf: http://www.duesseldorf.de/statistik/wahlatlas/bundestagswahlen/atlas.shtml?map=map0.xml%3Fx%3D
Braunschweig: http://www3.braunschweig.de/statistik/2013IAWahlatlas/atlas.html?indicator=i7
Osnabruck: http://geo.osnabrueck.de/wahl_ergebnis/
Bielefeld: http://wahlen.regioit.de/GT/bt2013/05711000/GeoGrafik111168_Z.htm#
Nurnberg PDF, maps start on p.20
Frankfurt PDF, maps start on p.13
Hannover: PDF for download - maps for city p.19 ff,, for region p. 47 ff
Bremen: PDF - Bremen maps p. 15 ff, Bremerhaven p. 22 ff
Dresden: City atlas for 2005 and 2009, but 2013 results are not yet online

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by community:http://www-mvnet.mvnet.de/wahlen/2013_bund/JAVA/WahlenAtlas.htm
[You can use the slider above the map to scroll from a party's best to worst community, which I recommend to do in particular for the NPD! Unfortunately, AfD forms part of "others",but I suppose they make up for most of them]
Sachsen-Anhalt: http://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/bt13/index.html
(select "Wahlen"->"Bundestagswahl 2013"->"Graphische Darstellungen"->"Übersichtskarten Gemeinden" from the scroll-down menu on the left)
Sachsen: http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wahlen/bw/bw2013/atlas/atlas.html
(you can toggle between electoral district and community via the second button from the left "Gebietseinteilung")
Thüringen: link
Brandenburg Link (you have to select another party first for the map to get coloured)

That seems to be it-I have checked all states and the 35 largest cities. If anybody feels like doing local maps, here is the data for Cologne: http://wahlen.stadt-koeln.de/
and here you can get base maps: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_Stadtbezirke_und_Stadtteile_K%C3%B6lns

[minionofmidas]

While under the previous rules, we'd have taken the national result, distributed seats proportionally:
CDU 242 SPD 182 Left 61 Greens 60 CSU 53
(...) I only calculated this for the CDU (...)
So 246 mandates total (+53 for the CSU = 299, vs 303 opposition assuming no overhang for the SPD in Hamburg, which looks a reasonably safe assumption.)

Or if you wanted to restore proportionality to that, you'd need to add five extra seats - 3 for the SPD, 1 for the Left, 1 for the Greens (but none for the CSU, as it happens.) Then distribute these additional seats to the state parties. That would have been the most logical and simple way to fix the issue.

Then again, using the current election law but treating the CSU as simply the name of the CXU's Bavarian branch you get 298-184-62-61. Which includes four overhang seats for the CXU and three equalization mandates - two for the Left and one for the SPD, curiously enough, and what they're actually equalizing for is the Greens' getting lucky in the first distribution. So that's actually two fewer seats (one each CXU and SPD. Though it's actually 4 CDU and 1 SPD, vs 3 extra CSU seats.)

[Franknburger]

And on another note, is there a good English-language source anywhere for German state elections since 1949? Wikipedia has good articles on ones since 2000, but I can find only very little from before then.

You mean, descriptions of campaigns etc?

I doubt you'll find a good German-language source.

If you are mainly interested in figures, you find them in this wikipedia article. It is in German, and includes an initial overview on each party's history (e.g. PDS->WASG/PSD-> Die Linke), but afterwards it is lots of tables, election results & seats state by state, that should be self-explaining. Towards the end, you find lists on best & worst results, largest swings, etc, by party, plus various other statistics

[Hash]

It's really awesome how much interactive maps/electoral geography material there is for German elections, especially at micro-levels and so quickly. France, again, lags behind.

[Franknburger]

It's really awesome how much interactive maps/electoral geography material there is for German elections, especially at micro-levels and so quickly. France, again, lags behind.

On the other hand, France has a pretty impressive national system available, which you can't find in Germany (at least not going down to community level). it's the old centralism-vs. local autonomy story.
In addition, quite a lot of the stuff is from the East. Classical post-communism - the administration is exchanged and juveniled, and starts to work with new technology. "Techy" Baden-Würtemberg has only crap to supply (long, long lists in alphabetical order).

[minionofmidas]

Currently going through the districts calculating change in reg.d voters... and had to smile at Diepholz-Nienburg, where the number fell from 193411 to 193114.

[Vosem]

And on another note, is there a good English-language source anywhere for German state elections since 1949? Wikipedia has good articles on ones since 2000, but I can find only very little from before then.

You mean, descriptions of campaigns etc?

I doubt you'll find a good German-language source.

If you are mainly interested in figures, you find them in this wikipedia article. It is in German, and includes an initial overview on each party's history (e.g. PDS->WASG/PSD-> Die Linke), but afterwards it is lots of tables, election results & seats state by state, that should be self-explaining. Towards the end, you find lists on best & worst results, largest swings, etc, by party, plus various other statistics

Thank you -- this is exactly what I'm looking for, pretty much. I think between Google Translate, my dictionary, and my own infinitesimal prior knowledge I'll be able to comprehend their descriptions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If anybody feels like doing local maps

I'll be doing approximately three metric fycktonnes of them at some point

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He is nonetheless quite right, though. (The territorial constituencies are a joke.)

Of course. But it's like similar issues with FPTP - a design feature, not a flaw as such, even if it is a problem from a democratic point of view...

[ERvND]

As a SPD supporter, and from a purely strategic point of view, I'd prefer a black-green coalition.

A new grand coalition, as has been explained many times, would probably lead to the final end of the SPD as a major party.

A CDU minority government, tolerated by the SPD, has some appeal. But the risk is far too high that Merkel induces new elections after a period of time, almost inevitably leading to a real absolute majority or at least a new black-yellow coalition.

Black-green, on the other hand, can benefit the SPD. I think that almost one third of their voters, and also some members, would immediately switch to the SPD*. In the long run, Merkel would destroy the Greens as she did with SPD and FDP, and a big number of their supporters would come back to the SPD*.

The problem is that the post works just as well with Greens and SPD reversed, and the Greens know this just as well as you do.

Indeed. I'm aware that black-green is highly unrealistic right now. On the other hand, the opportunity to become a cabinet minister doesn't arise too often, so I hope some Green leaders won't be able to resist the temptation. However, that's - again - also true for the SPD.

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Not so much. Green voters are normally quite well-off, so there seems to be some resistance against voting for the Left. At least the Left didn't benefit from the end of the black-green coalition in Hamburg. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I can't believe I missed this election! I have been following it more than most international elections and than just flat out forgot . I guess I am as big of an idiot as you all say I am. Anywho, I am pleased as punch with the results.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Regarding the above discussion about the acceptability of coalitions with Die Linke - I would guess that it will be an important change when it is no longer led by a generation who were politically active adults in the GDR.

[Velasco]

First and Second Vote results.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regarding the above discussion about the acceptability of coalitions with Die Linke - I would guess that it will be an important change when it is no longer led by a generation who were politically active adults in the GDR.

With the exception of maybe Gregor Gysi this is already applicaple today. Just look at the current executive committee of the Left Party:

Chairwoman Katja Kipping - 12 years old when the GDR ceased to exist

Chairman Bernd Riexinger - from West Germany

Deputy chairwoman Sarah Wagenknecht - 21 years old when the GDR ceased to exist, joined the then-SED in 1989

Deputy chairwoman Caren Lay - from West Germany

Deputy chairman Axel Troost - from West Germany

Deputy chairman Jan van Aken - from West Germany

Managing director Matthias Höhn - 15 years old when the GDR ceased to exist

Treasurer Raju Sharma - from West Germany

[Yeahsayyeah]

The ex-SED-element is also not dominant anymore in their Bundestag caucus:

In the still-incumbent Bundestag, only 21 of the 76 members of the Left caucus had been members of the SED, if I counted right. Possibly they have had more caucus members that had been former members of the SPD.

Of course, they have some people that where members of the German Communist Party or Maoist Groups at some point of their biography, but that is not part of the clichee in the same way (and of course there are even some rank-and-file SPD members who were, e.g. the former Secretary of Health Care, Ulla Schmidt).

[Yeahsayyeah]

I have counted now: It seems that 20 members of the new Left caucus have been members of the SED, but some (2 or 3) have only been after the "turn" and three of them have no wikipedia article or bundestag.de article yet and don't state an SED membership on their sites, but have taken seats for the PDS at communal level in 1990, so this is likely, but does not need to be true and the count of "Left caucus members that have been in the SED before the "turn" my fall to 14 of 64. 18 is the most likely number.

[Tender Branson]

Good overview of state results:

[Yeahsayyeah]

I did not realize until now, that the CDU was the strongest party in Berlin as a whole. At a whooping 28.6 percent, though, but it still hurts the eye.

[Famous Mortimer]

I have counted now: It seems that 20 members of the new Left caucus have been members of the SED, but some (2 or 3) have only been after the "turn" and three of them have no wikipedia article or bundestag.de article yet and don't state an SED membership on their sites, but have taken seats for the PDS at communal level in 1990, so this is likely, but does not need to be true and the count of "Left caucus members that have been in the SED before the "turn" my fall to 14 of 64. 18 is the most likely number.

How many of those 14-18 were in positions of power?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Decided to do the maps individually rather than in groups. Anyway...

[njwes]

First and Second Vote results.

Quite a few SPD -> CDU changes between the first and second map. I suppose this is likely due to SPD voters going with Die Linke or the Greens on the second vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Hifly]

Does anyone know what the highest (best) precinct for each major party was?