2013 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2013 Elections in Germany  (Read 269584 times)
Zanas
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« Reply #625 on: April 17, 2013, 11:45:44 AM »

Is it just me or this poll seems... late ? ^^

Anyway, French PS has a record low of 16% in recent years, Jospin in the first round of 2002, and the EP elections in 2009, and they were very very close to being topped by Greens in the latter. Granted, this was an EP election... But who knows ? So it seems it's their floor.

My guess is SPD can go as low as 19%, but I cannot see them fall behind the Greens federally. There is a DDR after all... Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #626 on: April 18, 2013, 12:44:32 AM »

New Hessen state elections poll by FGW:



49-41 majority for SPD-Greens.
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Franzl
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« Reply #627 on: April 18, 2013, 12:52:07 AM »

At least at state level here in Hesse, I fully intend to vote SPD.
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ERvND
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« Reply #628 on: April 18, 2013, 08:25:36 AM »

Few people know that for a long time, Hesse was the SPD stronghold in the whole of Western Germany, at times when even North-Rhine-Westphalia was still CDU-dominated. To some extent, this tendency has survived until today. In particular, compared to other states, the Hesse SPD is relatively strong in some rural areas.

Now, the 23% result was a consequence of the Ypsilanti scandal and the general federal trend in 2009. Since Schäfer-Gümbel has set things straight inside the party, I'd certainly expect a stronger result this time. 33% however would be huge. In the nationwide polls, the SPD is (again) where it started, around 23%. So, to really achieve 33%, the Hesse SPD would have to get almost 50% more votes than Steinbrück and the national party. This is hardly believable, especially considering that state and federal election will take place on the same day.
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Dereich
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« Reply #629 on: April 18, 2013, 03:24:47 PM »

Few people know that for a long time, Hesse was the SPD stronghold in the whole of Western Germany, at times when even North-Rhine-Westphalia was still CDU-dominated. To some extent, this tendency has survived until today. In particular, compared to other states, the Hesse SPD is relatively strong in some rural areas.

Now, the 23% result was a consequence of the Ypsilanti scandal and the general federal trend in 2009. Since Schäfer-Gümbel has set things straight inside the party, I'd certainly expect a stronger result this time. 33% however would be huge. In the nationwide polls, the SPD is (again) where it started, around 23%. So, to really achieve 33%, the Hesse SPD would have to get almost 50% more votes than Steinbrück and the national party. This is hardly believable, especially considering that state and federal election will take place on the same day.

I feel like that says more about how low the federal SDP has sunk instead of how much the state party has improved.
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Franzl
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« Reply #630 on: April 21, 2013, 06:52:29 AM »

Emnid, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 4%
others: 4%

Black-yellow with no majority (44-48). Red-green...what's that? (40-52).



Infratest/dimap, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
AfD: 3%

Black with no majority (41-48).
Red-Green also at 41-48.
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politicus
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« Reply #631 on: April 21, 2013, 07:19:10 AM »

Emnid, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 4%
others: 4%

Black-yellow with no majority (44-48). Red-green...what's that? (40-52).



Infratest/dimap, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
AfD: 3%

Black with no majority (41-48).
Red-Green also at 41-48.

Pink-Red-Green 48 vs. Black-Yellow 44-41

If Germany had been a normal country this would have been = leftist government.
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Franzl
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« Reply #632 on: April 21, 2013, 07:29:21 AM »

If Germany had been a "normal country", the Linke wouldn't exist.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #633 on: April 21, 2013, 07:34:18 AM »

If Germany had been a "normal country", the Linke wouldn't exist.
If Germany had been a "normal country", the Communist tradition would not have disappeared as near totally as it did, nor would there ever have been a threshold this high (its main, though not its sole, historic purpose is to Parliament Commie-free), so yeah of course it would exist.
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Franzl
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« Reply #634 on: April 21, 2013, 09:41:34 AM »

Of course a far-left party would exist...but the specific circumstances surrounding Linke are a direct result of German history.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #635 on: April 21, 2013, 09:56:56 AM »

Of course a far-left party would exist...but the specific circumstances surrounding Linke are a direct result of German history.
This is correct.

Of course if Germany were a normal country and Scandinavia is what we define as "normal" ... it wouldn't be just one country (nor just two, counting Austria) so the whole point is moot. Cheesy
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Lurker
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« Reply #636 on: April 21, 2013, 07:24:26 PM »

With regards to the discussion above, is there any chance of Die Linke becoming "normalized" in the near future (i.e., being considered as potential coalition partners on the federal level and such) - Or will the party always retain its DDR/SED taint?
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politicus
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« Reply #637 on: April 21, 2013, 07:36:36 PM »

Of course a far-left party would exist...but the specific circumstances surrounding Linke are a direct result of German history.
This is correct.

Of course if Germany were a normal country and Scandinavia is what we define as "normal" ... it wouldn't be just one country (nor just two, counting Austria) so the whole point is moot. Cheesy

I wasnt thinking specifically at Scandinavia when I wrote "normal", most European party systems with PR have a Left Socialist or ex Communist party (or several) of some sort and it is generally capable of allying with the SD/Socialist party.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #638 on: April 22, 2013, 09:41:53 AM »

A couple new polls by YouGov:

Federal

38% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% AfD
  5% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% FW
  2% Others

No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP (43-52), SPD-Greens (41-54) or SPD-Greens-Left (47-48).

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP is possible (48-47).

CDU/CSU-Greens is possible (53-42).

CDU/CSU-SPD is possible (64-31).

Any other coalition is probably very unlikely.

Bavaria (Sept. state election)

49% CSU
18% SPD
16% Greens
  9% FW
  2% FDP
  2% Left
  4% Others

Absolute majority for the CSU (49-43).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #639 on: April 22, 2013, 09:44:19 AM »

The federal YouGov poll shows that the Left and the Right split down the country by ca. 50-50 now:

49% Left (SPD, Greens, Left, Pirates)
49% Right (CDU, CSU, AfD, FDP, FW)

If you assume that 1% of "others" is NPD, it's actually 50-49 for the Right.
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Zanas
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« Reply #640 on: April 22, 2013, 09:52:23 AM »

Is AfD polling above the threshold already a thing in Germany ? Are they expected to poll even more ? Will they have a parabolic curve like the Pirates, and in that case, where on it do you think they will be come the election ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #641 on: April 22, 2013, 09:58:15 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2013, 10:00:42 AM by Tender Branson »

Question for you Germans:

In a hypothetical scenario, would it be legally possible for Frank Stronach to fund the AfD ahead of the election ? What is required to fund a party in Germany ? Do you need to have your main residence in Germany to donate to a party ? Would a secondary residence of Stronach also be enough ? Do you have to be a German citizen ? How would you see such an involvement by Stronach, because his party here and AfD are not too far apart it seems ideologically ?
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change08
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« Reply #642 on: April 22, 2013, 11:39:47 AM »

Would AfD getting in make CDU-CSU-FDP basically impossible?
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ERvND
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« Reply #643 on: April 22, 2013, 03:39:22 PM »

With regards to the discussion above, is there any chance of Die Linke becoming "normalized" in the near future (i.e., being considered as potential coalition partners on the federal level and such) - Or will the party always retain its DDR/SED taint?

The fact that Die Linke is not considered as a potential coalition partner on the federal level is not (only) due to its DDR/SED taint. As a matter of fact, in the eastern part of the country, where Die Linke is a "real" and direct successor of the SED, the party is much more pragmatic than in the West, and SPD-Linke coalitions are possible. In the Western states, in contrast, the party is mostly comprised of either die-hard leftwing extremists or unprofessional morons. Both groups are not willing or not able to compromise on any issue, rendering Die Linke basically unfit for politics in general.

So, when they are not considered for coalitions on the federal level, the reason is not so much their SED-past, but rather their current condition in the Western states.
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Vosem
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« Reply #644 on: April 22, 2013, 05:23:16 PM »

I read about AfD on Wikipedia -- it seems like their big schtick is being anti-Euro, but that otherwise their positions align nicely with the CDU. Could CDU/CSU/FDP/AFD be a potential coalition? The YouGov poll shows this would be a very narrow but still viable majority (48-47).
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ERvND
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« Reply #645 on: April 22, 2013, 07:05:39 PM »

Could CDU/CSU/FDP/AFD be a potential coalition?

Highly unlikely, at least for now. To enter a coalition with CDU/CSU and FDP, the AfD would have to give up its main goal and raison d'etre, namely the abolishment of the Euro.

Of course, if they want to be part of the federal government some day, this will have to happen anyway. But it would be too early now. You can't found an anti-Euro party in April and enter a pro-Euro government in September.
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Rob Bloom
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« Reply #646 on: April 23, 2013, 03:38:01 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2013, 03:39:36 PM by Rob Bloom »

AfD is rather a threat for another black-yellow majority in September. They might be able to gain enough former FDP-votes to keep the party below five percent. A significant part of FDP-supporters is dissatisfied with Merkel's management of the Euro-crisis.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #647 on: April 23, 2013, 03:50:27 PM »

AfD is rather a threat for another black-yellow majority in September. They might be able to gain enough former FDP-votes to keep the party below five percent. A significant part of FDP-supporters is dissatisfied with Merkel's management of the Euro-crisis.

But even if FDP reached 5%, AfD would still be a threat to it if they also obtained 5%, no?
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Franzl
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« Reply #648 on: April 24, 2013, 11:18:23 AM »

Forsa, 24.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

Black-yellow retains majority (47-44).
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #649 on: April 25, 2013, 04:48:43 AM »

AfD is rather a threat for another black-yellow majority in September. They might be able to gain enough former FDP-votes to keep the party below five percent. A significant part of FDP-supporters is dissatisfied with Merkel's management of the Euro-crisis.

But even if FDP reached 5%, AfD would still be a threat to it if they also obtained 5%, no?

If the AfD enters the Bundestag a new grand coalition would be almost guaranteed.
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