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Author Topic: 2013 Elections in Germany  (Read 85869 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #700 on: May 24, 2013, 02:53:12 pm »
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...if barely so. 51.1% pro Old States across the whole of Baden. (Note that the Status Quo was not actually a ballot option... though would have been the result if the victorious option did not also win at least three "Abstimmbezirke"). Very interesting to see that it was mostly ancestral Baden that was so very opposed to the idea. Never seen that map before.



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« Reply #701 on: May 26, 2013, 11:35:18 am »
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Today are local elections in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. I just voted together with my daughter (her first vote).

Elections are for community councils, which - with more than 1.300 communities in total, and in most smaller communities only non-partisan 'citizen lists` running - are of very limited national significance. 

In addition, however, city/ county parliaments in the State's 4 cities and 11 counties are elected, and these elections are seen as an important test for the upcoming federal election in autumn, as well as a first judgement on the red-green-SSW coalition that gained power in the State last year.

Some background information: Schleswig-Holstein has a bit more than 2.8 million inhabitants. Of these, nearly 1 million (35%) are found in the so-called "Speckgürtel" ('fat belt') around Hamburg.  Another 700,000 (25%) live in and around the two major cities of Kiel (360 k) and Lübeck (340 k). Smaller population centers are Flensburg (90 k, 130 k with sub-/exurbs), and Neumunster (80 k, 160 k when including the belt towards and the city / suburbs of Rendsburg). The other 30% live in the remainder of the State, which tends to be rural/ small-town, with the exception of the more industrialised cities of Itzehoe (35 k) and Heide (21 k),, the Navy port of Eckernförde (23 k), and the Baltic Sea tourism area north of Lübeck.

Party-wise, the rural/ small-town area is traditional CDU land, especially as concerns the marshes along the North Sea and the Lower Elbe, with quite some FDP strength there as well. The Flensburg area along the Danish border is traditionally going quite strongly for  SSW (Danish minority party), and had in 2008 also non-partisan "citizen lists' showing well on city on county level. Otherwise, the cities are traditional SPD domains, which, however, is losing ground in Lübeck and Kiel but has maintained strength in the Neumunster/ Rendsburg area and other more industrialised towns. The Greens are strong in the university town of Kiel (17% in the 2008 local elections), and the cities near to Hamburg (Ahrensburg, Wedel, Pinneberg, Norderstedt, Reinbek, Geesthacht, Quickborn), but have also made inroads in rural areas (there best showing, 68%,  was in a little village south of Ratzeburg, which essentially consists of an eco-farming cooperative with annexed restaurant). They, however, still tend to underperform in Lübeck and Neumunster/ Rendsburg (SPD strongholds) and along the West Coast (CDU land). FDP strongholds are also in the Hamburg periphery, but tend to be a bit more outlying (car commuting country) than Green domains (typically rail-connected). The Linke performed surprisingly well in the 2008 elections, especially in traditional SPD  strongholds such as Kiel, Lübeck, Neumunster, Heide and Itzehoe, and the lower-income parts of the Hamburg periphery.

The bellwether county is Pinneberg, northwest of Hamburg, with a mix of west-coast marsh lands (CDU), smaller industrial towns (SPD/Linke), and Hamburg suburbs (Greens/ FDP).

Things to look out for are:
1.) Will the Linke (2008) and the Pirates (2012 state elections) consolidate their surprises, or go down again to levels around 2-3%. Lübeck, with a red-red-green city council coalition, is especially interesting to watch in this respect.
2.)  To which extent will national (CUU strength, FDP weakness) and(or state-level trends (good ratings for current red-green-SSW coalition) influence county-level results.
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« Reply #702 on: May 26, 2013, 11:46:57 am »
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For anybody wanting to follow the Schleswig-Holstein results: The official results page is now up (though not yet showing any results).
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« Reply #703 on: May 26, 2013, 12:01:27 pm »
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And here are, for reference, the results of the 2008 local elections, and the 2012 state elections:


CDU:         38.6         30.8
SPD:         26.6          30.4
Grüne        10.3          13.2
FDP             9.0           8.2
Linke           6.9           2.2
Pirates          --            8.2
SSW            3.0           4.6
FW              5.1            --
Oth             0.5            2.4

Others include NPD, which, however, did not run in all counties. As such, their results are not fully representative of their vote potential.


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« Reply #704 on: May 26, 2013, 12:09:46 pm »
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Does the website show past results for each place in order to compare? If not where can we see full results for the previous election?
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« Reply #705 on: May 26, 2013, 12:10:11 pm »
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The first result is in - Hallig Gröde, a small island off the West Coast, with 8 voters (down from 13 in 2008). Quite a landslide (absolute votes, 2008 in brackets):

CDU     2 (7)
SPD     4  (0)
Grüne  0  (2)
SSW    1  (0)
FW       1 (4)

Suppose the two green voters from 2008 have moved to the mainland ....
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« Reply #706 on: May 26, 2013, 12:17:03 pm »
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Does the website show past results for each place in order to compare? If not where can we see full results for the previous election?

No, it does not (at least not at community levels, maybe on a county level). You can download an Excel file with 2008 results by voting office, sort/ filter it by locality, and then do the comparison. This was one of the things that kept me busy the last weeks (the other one was trying to put together a base map of all the more than 1.000 communities, which I still have not finished yet). I will try to do some mapping on the part of the state for which my base map is already finished (essentially the Hamburg periphery up to Heide / Neumünster / Plön/ Fehmarn). Otherwise, I will over the next hours check up some county websites, which may have 2008 comparisons, and post links to them.
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« Reply #707 on: May 26, 2013, 12:35:33 pm »
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Here starts the county-by-county stuff: First my home county of Segeberg (2008 results first, then the current figures - still updating minute by minute):


CDU      42.1     47.9
SPD      26.3     26.0
Grüne   11.4     14.0
FDP      11.8       5,7
Linke      7.4       2.4
Pirates    ---        4.0
Indep.    1.0        0.0

My village had the Greens going up from 13.3% to 14.6% - good daughter !

Note that the villages come in first. The larger cities, especially the Hamburg suburb of Norderstedt, are still out. The CDU should go down over the next hours.

Pirates are surprisingly strong. SPD is doing better than I expected, considering they had a few local scandals.

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« Reply #708 on: May 26, 2013, 12:47:07 pm »
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Online results for Stormarn (between Hamburg and Lübeck). 2008 results first, then the current count.


CDU        41.3     46.1
SPD        27.3     29.1
Grüne     13.1     14.7
FDP        10.2       5,2
Linke       6.3       2.5
Pirates     ---        ---
FW/ Oth.  1.9       1.8

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« Reply #709 on: May 26, 2013, 01:01:10 pm »
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Online results for Pinneberg, the bellwether northwest of Hamburg. 2008 results first, then the current count.


CDU         38.8     40.5
SPD         27.8     29.5
Grüne      12.7     16.3
FDP         11.2       5,2
Linke        5.8       2.6
SSW         ---        0.2
Pirates     ---        1.9
NPD          ---       1.0
FW/ Oth.  3.8       2.7

The German-speakers can use the Wikipedia-pages on each county to assess the 2008 results, and take the link to the county website to look up the current count there.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2013, 01:07:44 pm by Franknburger »Logged

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« Reply #710 on: May 26, 2013, 01:11:45 pm »
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Alright, now here a better site to track all results without having to go county-by-county, which also includes 2008 results for reference.

First surprise: CDU wins the SPD stronghold of Neumünster!
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« Reply #711 on: May 26, 2013, 01:19:32 pm »
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What kind of place is Lentföhrden?
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« Reply #712 on: May 26, 2013, 01:53:42 pm »
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What kind of place is Lentföhrden?

Typical outer suburb/exurb north of Hamburg, pop. around 2.500. Suburban rail connection to Hamburg and Neumunster. Took a population boost after WW II (refugees), and then again in the late 1970s / early 1980s, when, in preparation for the planned new Hamburg-Kaltenkirchen airport south of town, rural population was resettled there. Population is now slightly declining (probably the town is over-aged).

I have not much of an idea why it voted so heavily for SPD. One issue may be that the planned new Hamburg airport, that had already been buried several times but revived by some CDU politicians from Hamburg and Kiel, has now ultimately been cancelled by the SPD-led governments of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein. Another issue may be the planned A 20 motorway, which the Greens want to stop at the junction with the A 7 in Kaltenkirchen, but the SPD wants to extend further westward, thereby also connecting Lentföhrden (however, typically the A 20 discussion is rather working in favour of the Greens in the communities that are along the planned route).
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« Reply #713 on: May 26, 2013, 02:11:00 pm »
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Alright, more results are in:

Lübeck: Red-green win, at the expense of the Linke. SPD up 5% to 33.8, Greens up 5% to 16.5. Linke goes down nearly 8% to only 4% (expected, since they had a lot of internal trouble). CDU gains strongly by 6.5% (now at 32%), while the FDP loses 5% (now at 3). otherwise, a lot of to and fro between various 'citizen lists' and "free voters". Pirates not on the ballot, but "Die Partei" (Germany's version of the Grillo movement) gets 1.5%.

Flensburg: Return to normal. Last election's shooting stars, namely WF (Voters for Flensburg, -7%), SSW (-3%) and Linke (-3.7%) all lose, SPD (+4.8%) and Grüne (+5.2%) win strongly. CDU (+1.5%) and FDP (-0.5%) rather unchanged. CDU is strongest party at 22%, bur SPD (21%) plus SSW (19 %) plus Grüne (12.5%) together have gained the majority.

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« Reply #714 on: May 26, 2013, 02:29:07 pm »
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Stormarn results are now final (2008 results in brackets):


CDU        41,1    (41.3)
SPD        30.0    (27.3)
Grüne     16.5    (13.1)
FDP          6.2     (10.2)
Linke        2.7     (6.3)
Pirates     ---        ---
FW/ Oth.  3.5      (1.9)

Another red-green win. CDU stable,  FDP and Linke on the decline.

Haven't checked all city results yet, but it seems the Greens could grow further in their traditional strongholds of Ahrensburg (now over 20%), Großhansdorf (dito), Reinbek, Bargteheide and Bod Oldesloe


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« Reply #715 on: May 26, 2013, 02:51:07 pm »
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Sh..t! I had hoped to get rid of the CDU-FDP majority in my home county of Segeberg, but it wasn't to be so. Here the final results (2008 in brackets):


CDU      43.7     (42.1)
SPD      29.0     (26.3)
Grüne   14.2     (11.4)
FDP        6.1      (11.8 )
Linke      3.1        (7.4)
Pirates   3.5        (---)
Indep.    0.4        (1.0)

Anyway, our first green village mayor could boost the vote share in Klein Gladebrügge from already good 34.7% in 2008 to 43.8 %. That village (actually a suburb of Bad Segeberg) is directly on the planned A 20 motorway route, as is Bad Segeberg itself (20% Greens, up from 13.1%). The Green state party head, an eco-farmer, got 23.2% in his home village of Seedorf. Could not yet find the votes for Norderstedt, which, at one-third of the county's total population, is where the election is ultimately decided.
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« Reply #716 on: May 26, 2013, 03:01:01 pm »
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Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?
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« Reply #717 on: May 26, 2013, 03:34:19 pm »
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Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

No, the threshold was skipped a few years by the State Constitutional Court. As County Councils have 51 members, and smaller town councils only 15-30 members (depending on town size), you however effectively need at least 2% on county level and 3-6% on town level to gain a seat. [It's actually even more complicated, as roughly one third of seats are FPTP on voting district level, and the remainder is proportionally distributed list seats, with overhanging mandates and all that other stuff].
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« Reply #718 on: May 26, 2013, 04:02:28 pm »
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Alright, since the state totals are still not yet out, here out of personal interest, and for the Danish readers, a look at North Frisia - traditional CDU territory, but slowly "greening" due to local wind turbine manufacturing (2008 in brackets):

CDU         39.6    (40.5)
SPD         24.1     (21.3)
Greens      9.9       (6.6)
FDP           3.7       (5.Cool
SSW          9.2       (9.1)
WG-NF     10.5     (12.2)
Linke         1.3       (4.5 ??)
Pirates      1.6       (--)

WG-NF (Wählergruppe Nordfriesland) is a local non-partisan list. Their leader was elected county governor with SPD and SSW support. SPD, SSW, Greens and WG-NF have a narrow majority (27 of 52 seats) in the new county council!- quite a defeat for the once almighty CDU!

In Kiel, the red-green majority has been confirmed. SPD gains strongly (+4.4), especially at the expense of the Linke (.-7.7, down to 3.4). Grüne only gain lightly (up to 17.6 from 16.6), which means that now Ahrensburg (possibly also Pinneberg, haven't checked it yet) is the Green's strongest city in the state. CDU up 1.1, FDP down 4.2. SSW doubles its vote to 3.7%, which is remarkable since Kiel is no traditional Danish minority territory. Pirates at 3%, two local citizen lists at 3.3% combined.

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« Reply #719 on: May 26, 2013, 05:28:15 pm »
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Now that the county councils are elected, what will happen to the Landräte (heads of county authorities)? As far as I understand, there are no direct elections in S-H, so the county councils will have to choose. Are there fixed terms, or will the councils have the authority to unseat incumbents if majorities changed?
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« Reply #720 on: May 26, 2013, 05:55:22 pm »
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Now that the county councils are elected, what will happen to the Landräte (heads of county authorities)? As far as I understand, there are no direct elections in S-H, so the county councils will have to choose. Are there fixed terms, or will the councils have the authority to unseat incumbents if majorities changed?

Good question! In fact, the direct election of county governors (Landräte) was only abolished in 2009, so the current governors were still directly elected in 2008. So far,, the county councils respected the direct vote. In Segeberg, e.g., the CDU-FDP majority county council did not challenge the SPD governor. I suppose  the governors' terms end automatically with today's election, so the new councils are free to elect whomever they like as governor.
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« Reply #721 on: May 27, 2013, 02:06:31 am »
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New NRW poll by Infratest dimap for WDR:

State election



Federal election



Direct vote for Chancellor



Job approval of the SPD-Green state government



Job approval of leading government politicians



Speed limit of 120 km/h (75 mph) on Highways - Support or Oppose



Speed limit of 120 km/h by gender



http://www1.wdr.de/themen/politik/nrwtrend159.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #722 on: May 27, 2013, 02:11:49 am »
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Changes in the NRW federal election poll, compared with the 2009 NRW result:

CDU: +7%
SPD: +5.5%
Greens: +3%
FDP: -12%
Left: -5.5%
Pirates: no change
Others: +2%
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« Reply #723 on: May 27, 2013, 02:21:07 am »
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This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.
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« Reply #724 on: May 27, 2013, 04:26:45 am »
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Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

No, the threshold was skipped a few years by the State Constitutional Court. As County Councils have 51 members, and smaller town councils only 15-30 members (depending on town size), you however effectively need at least 2% on county level and 3-6% on town level to gain a seat. [It's actually even more complicated, as roughly one third of seats are FPTP on voting district level, and the remainder is proportionally distributed list seats, with overhanging mandates and all that other stuff].
Just like NRW then.

I didn't notice these elections coming up until I heard about them on the radio this morning. Undecided
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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