2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

The state page does not do running counts, only releasing district results once they're complete. And seems to be down due to traffic. Same old same old...

[minionofmidas]

http://www.wahl.hannit.de/

Looks like the SPD is ahead across most of the Hanover suburbs. Lacks comparison figures, though.

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP      46.3%
SDP/Greens  45.9%

[Franknburger]

Latest ZDF Projection (19:23)

CDU 36.5
SPD 32.5
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

black-yellow 45.2 red-green 45.1

black-yellow leads with 73 - 72 seats

First district results expected after 20 h.

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.2%
SPD/Greens 46.1%

[Franknburger]

ARD projections (20:00):

CDU 36.3
SPD 32.6
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.8

Red-green 46.2 black-yellow 46.1

Either +1 seat red-green, or both blocks equal, depends on FPTP & compensation

[minionofmidas]

both blocks equal

That would be so hilarious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite the election.

[Franknburger]

Some background on Lower-Saxony FPTP:

According to the latest ARD & ZDF polls, the CDU would be entitled to 53 seats. However, the last FPTP projection published a a few days ago projected 54 FPTP seats for the CDU. In this case, the CDU would keep the extra seat. If they gain more than 54 FPTP, other parties would get compensated (i.e. the seat total rises), but even after compensation, CDU might stil get one seat more than they would get on proportional assignment.

According to available data, Hannover FPTP seats should go 4 SPD, 1 CDU, which is in line with pre-election predictions

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.2%

No change from previous projection 30 minutes ago.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

[Franzl]

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

A tie still seems possible...

[jaichind]

What about a tie.  Would not that not mean a grand coalition?

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

[jaichind]

Intresting.  It would seem that a majority SPD/Greens would be out if CDU would get these bonus seats.   I guess what they have to hope for is to win by one seat and in turn means a tie which would mean a grand coalition.

Some background on Lower-Saxony FPTP:

According to the latest ARD & ZDF polls, the CDU would be entitled to 53 seats. However, the last FPTP projection published a a few days ago projected 54 FPTP seats for the CDU. In this case, the CDU would keep the extra seat. If they gain more than 54 FPTP, other parties would get compensated (i.e. the seat total rises), but even after compensation, CDU might stil get one seat more than they would get on proportional assignment.

According to available data, Hannover FPTP seats should go 4 SPD, 1 CDU, which is in line with pre-election predictions

[Middle-aged Europe]

What about a tie.  Would not that not mean a grand coalition?

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

Mhm, okay, it's seems you're right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XyMePUidzs

[Hifly]

CDU GAIN Delmenhorst!

[Yeahsayyeah]

Here are some results for the Göttingen region

(http: / /) wahlen.kds.de/2013ltw/index.html , I cannot include links.

SPD won the constituencies of Göttingen and Göttingen/Münden, Northeim, Einbeck, Osterode and Holzminden (where Minister of the Interior, Schürnemann (CDU), lost).
CDU won Duderstadt.

Which makes a FTPT net gain of 1 for the SPD in this region (Holzminden).

[Yeahsayyeah]

According to the german wikipedia the SPD in Delmenhorst had some kind of corruption scandal, where the former SPD Landtag member Swantje Hartmann was involved.

[minionofmidas]

CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    39,1    37,7    4,6    11,5    3,7
Veränderung    +5,6    -5,4    -1,5    +7,9    -5,2
Abgegebene Stimmen    10914    10524    1297    3222    1034
Piraten: 3,4% 936.
Zweitstimmen    CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    34,0    34,5    8,2    12,9    3,9
Veränderung    -2,0    -0,4    +0,9    +7,1    -6,2

Delmenhorst list SPD 34.5 (+0.9), CDU 34.0 (-2.0), Greens 12.9 (+7.1), FDP 8.2 (+0.9), Left 3.9 (-6.2)
direct however... CDU 39.1 (+5.6), SPD 37.7 (-1.5), Greens 11.5 (+7.9), FDP 4.6 (-1.5), Left 3.7 (-5.2)

Looks like a popular incumbent stood down... and like Green voters didn't split their tickets much.

EDIT: Or that.

[minionofmidas]

http://wahlarchiv.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-01-20-LT-DE-NI/html-wkreise-20-42.shtml

At last, a working link to the results announced so far.

[Zanas]

It's back to 72-72 tie on ZDF. I don't quite get in which circumstances there are extra-seats allocated.

[Franzl]

It's back to 72-72 tie on ZDF. I don't quite get in which circumstances there are extra-seats allocated.

I don't think anyone does...

[Zanas]

Well that's reassuring...

[Yeahsayyeah]

@Watermelon: Extra seats are allocated, if one party wins more FPTP districts than it would get seats in the Landtag according to proportional representation for the full 135 seats, so called Überhangmandate. As Niedersachsen has a share of 87/135 "direct seats" there are many Überhangmandate possible. Those are compensated but a mixture of rounding errors and D'Hondt seat allocation can lead to a fully 50/50 in the Landtag.

[Hifly]

The CDU seems to be winning more wahlkreise than election.de had predicted...