2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

And here are, for reference, the results of the 2008 local elections, and the 2012 state elections:


CDU:         38.6         30.8
SPD:         26.6          30.4
Grüne        10.3          13.2
FDP             9.0           8.2
Linke           6.9           2.2
Pirates          --            8.2
SSW            3.0           4.6
FW              5.1            --
Oth             0.5            2.4

Others include NPD, which, however, did not run in all counties. As such, their results are not fully representative of their vote potential.

[Hifly]

Does the website show past results for each place in order to compare? If not where can we see full results for the previous election?

[Franknburger]

The first result is in - Hallig Gröde, a small island off the West Coast, with 8 voters (down from 13 in 2008). Quite a landslide (absolute votes, 2008 in brackets):

CDU     2 (7)
SPD     4  (0)
Grüne  0  (2)
SSW    1  (0)
FW       1 (4)

Suppose the two green voters from 2008 have moved to the mainland ....

[Franknburger]

Does the website show past results for each place in order to compare? If not where can we see full results for the previous election?

No, it does not (at least not at community levels, maybe on a county level). You can download an Excel file with 2008 results by voting office, sort/ filter it by locality, and then do the comparison. This was one of the things that kept me busy the last weeks (the other one was trying to put together a base map of all the more than 1.000 communities, which I still have not finished yet). I will try to do some mapping on the part of the state for which my base map is already finished (essentially the Hamburg periphery up to Heide / Neumünster / Plön/ Fehmarn). Otherwise, I will over the next hours check up some county websites, which may have 2008 comparisons, and post links to them.

[Franknburger]

Here starts the county-by-county stuff: First my home county of Segeberg (2008 results first, then the current figures - still updating minute by minute):


CDU      42.1     47.9
SPD      26.3     26.0
Grüne   11.4     14.0
FDP      11.8       5,7
Linke      7.4       2.4
Pirates    ---        4.0
Indep.    1.0        0.0

My village had the Greens going up from 13.3% to 14.6% - good daughter !

Note that the villages come in first. The larger cities, especially the Hamburg suburb of Norderstedt, are still out. The CDU should go down over the next hours.

Pirates are surprisingly strong. SPD is doing better than I expected, considering they had a few local scandals.

[Franknburger]

Online results for Stormarn (between Hamburg and Lübeck). 2008 results first, then the current count.


CDU        41.3     46.1
SPD        27.3     29.1
Grüne     13.1     14.7
FDP        10.2       5,2
Linke       6.3       2.5
Pirates     ---        ---
FW/ Oth.  1.9       1.8

[Franknburger]

Online results for Pinneberg, the bellwether northwest of Hamburg. 2008 results first, then the current count.


CDU         38.8     40.5
SPD         27.8     29.5
Grüne      12.7     16.3
FDP         11.2       5,2
Linke        5.8       2.6
SSW         ---        0.2
Pirates     ---        1.9
NPD          ---       1.0
FW/ Oth.  3.8       2.7

The German-speakers can use the Wikipedia-pages on each county to assess the 2008 results, and take the link to the county website to look up the current count there.

[Franknburger]

Alright, now here a better site to track all results without having to go county-by-county, which also includes 2008 results for reference.

First surprise: CDU wins the SPD stronghold of Neumünster!

[Hifly]

What kind of place is Lentföhrden?

[Franknburger]

What kind of place is Lentföhrden?

Typical outer suburb/exurb north of Hamburg, pop. around 2.500. Suburban rail connection to Hamburg and Neumunster. Took a population boost after WW II (refugees), and then again in the late 1970s / early 1980s, when, in preparation for the planned new Hamburg-Kaltenkirchen airport south of town, rural population was resettled there. Population is now slightly declining (probably the town is over-aged).

I have not much of an idea why it voted so heavily for SPD. One issue may be that the planned new Hamburg airport, that had already been buried several times but revived by some CDU politicians from Hamburg and Kiel, has now ultimately been cancelled by the SPD-led governments of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein. Another issue may be the planned A 20 motorway, which the Greens want to stop at the junction with the A 7 in Kaltenkirchen, but the SPD wants to extend further westward, thereby also connecting Lentföhrden (however, typically the A 20 discussion is rather working in favour of the Greens in the communities that are along the planned route).

[Franknburger]

Alright, more results are in:

Lübeck: Red-green win, at the expense of the Linke. SPD up 5% to 33.8, Greens up 5% to 16.5. Linke goes down nearly 8% to only 4% (expected, since they had a lot of internal trouble). CDU gains strongly by 6.5% (now at 32%), while the FDP loses 5% (now at 3). otherwise, a lot of to and fro between various 'citizen lists' and "free voters". Pirates not on the ballot, but "Die Partei" (Germany's version of the Grillo movement) gets 1.5%.

Flensburg: Return to normal. Last election's shooting stars, namely WF (Voters for Flensburg, -7%), SSW (-3%) and Linke (-3.7%) all lose, SPD (+4.8%) and Grüne (+5.2%) win strongly. CDU (+1.5%) and FDP (-0.5%) rather unchanged. CDU is strongest party at 22%, bur SPD (21%) plus SSW (19 %) plus Grüne (12.5%) together have gained the majority.

[Franknburger]

Stormarn results are now final (2008 results in brackets):


CDU        41,1    (41.3)
SPD        30.0    (27.3)
Grüne     16.5    (13.1)
FDP          6.2     (10.2)
Linke        2.7     (6.3)
Pirates     ---        ---
FW/ Oth.  3.5      (1.9)

Another red-green win. CDU stable,  FDP and Linke on the decline.

Haven't checked all city results yet, but it seems the Greens could grow further in their traditional strongholds of Ahrensburg (now over 20%), Großhansdorf (dito), Reinbek, Bargteheide and Bod Oldesloe


[/quote]

[Franknburger]

Sh..t! I had hoped to get rid of the CDU-FDP majority in my home county of Segeberg, but it wasn't to be so. Here the final results (2008 in brackets):


CDU      43.7     (42.1)
SPD      29.0     (26.3)
Grüne   14.2     (11.4)
FDP        6.1      (11.8 )
Linke      3.1        (7.4)
Pirates   3.5        (---)
Indep.    0.4        (1.0)

Anyway, our first green village mayor could boost the vote share in Klein Gladebrügge from already good 34.7% in 2008 to 43.8 %. That village (actually a suburb of Bad Segeberg) is directly on the planned A 20 motorway route, as is Bad Segeberg itself (20% Greens, up from 13.1%). The Green state party head, an eco-farmer, got 23.2% in his home village of Seedorf. Could not yet find the votes for Norderstedt, which, at one-third of the county's total population, is where the election is ultimately decided.

[Jens]

Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

[Franknburger]

Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

No, the threshold was skipped a few years by the State Constitutional Court. As County Councils have 51 members, and smaller town councils only 15-30 members (depending on town size), you however effectively need at least 2% on county level and 3-6% on town level to gain a seat. [It's actually even more complicated, as roughly one third of seats are FPTP on voting district level, and the remainder is proportionally distributed list seats, with overhanging mandates and all that other stuff].

[Franknburger]

Alright, since the state totals are still not yet out, here out of personal interest, and for the Danish readers, a look at North Frisia - traditional CDU territory, but slowly "greening" due to local wind turbine manufacturing (2008 in brackets):

CDU         39.6    (40.5)
SPD         24.1     (21.3)
Greens      9.9       (6.6)
FDP           3.7       (5.
SSW          9.2       (9.1)
WG-NF     10.5     (12.2)
Linke         1.3       (4.5 ??)
Pirates      1.6       (--)

WG-NF (Wählergruppe Nordfriesland) is a local non-partisan list. Their leader was elected county governor with SPD and SSW support. SPD, SSW, Greens and WG-NF have a narrow majority (27 of 52 seats) in the new county council!- quite a defeat for the once almighty CDU!

In Kiel, the red-green majority has been confirmed. SPD gains strongly (+4.4), especially at the expense of the Linke (.-7.7, down to 3.4). Grüne only gain lightly (up to 17.6 from 16.6), which means that now Ahrensburg (possibly also Pinneberg, haven't checked it yet) is the Green's strongest city in the state. CDU up 1.1, FDP down 4.2. SSW doubles its vote to 3.7%, which is remarkable since Kiel is no traditional Danish minority territory. Pirates at 3%, two local citizen lists at 3.3% combined.

[ERvND]

Now that the county councils are elected, what will happen to the Landräte (heads of county authorities)? As far as I understand, there are no direct elections in S-H, so the county councils will have to choose. Are there fixed terms, or will the councils have the authority to unseat incumbents if majorities changed?

[Franknburger]

Now that the county councils are elected, what will happen to the Landräte (heads of county authorities)? As far as I understand, there are no direct elections in S-H, so the county councils will have to choose. Are there fixed terms, or will the councils have the authority to unseat incumbents if majorities changed?

Good question! In fact, the direct election of county governors (Landräte) was only abolished in 2009, so the current governors were still directly elected in 2008. So far,, the county councils respected the direct vote. In Segeberg, e.g., the CDU-FDP majority county council did not challenge the SPD governor. I suppose  the governors' terms end automatically with today's election, so the new councils are free to elect whomever they like as governor.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll by Infratest dimap for WDR:

State election



Federal election



Direct vote for Chancellor



Job approval of the SPD-Green state government



Job approval of leading government politicians



Speed limit of 120 km/h (75 mph) on Highways - Support or Oppose



Speed limit of 120 km/h by gender



http://www1.wdr.de/themen/politik/nrwtrend159.html

[Tender Branson]

Changes in the NRW federal election poll, compared with the 2009 NRW result:

CDU: +7%
SPD: +5.5%
Greens: +3%
FDP: -12%
Left: -5.5%
Pirates: no change
Others: +2%

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

[minionofmidas]

Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

No, the threshold was skipped a few years by the State Constitutional Court. As County Councils have 51 members, and smaller town councils only 15-30 members (depending on town size), you however effectively need at least 2% on county level and 3-6% on town level to gain a seat. [It's actually even more complicated, as roughly one third of seats are FPTP on voting district level, and the remainder is proportionally distributed list seats, with overhanging mandates and all that other stuff].

Just like NRW then.

I didn't notice these elections coming up until I heard about them on the radio this morning.

[Jens]

I would really like to se a map of SSW's voter share. From what I can pick up, it looks like SSW lost a bit in the core areas, but gains elsewhere like Kiel

[palandio]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

Uniform proportional losses would be a very unrealistic assumption.
The Left's Eastern electorate is more stable than in the West.
Infratest dimap has the Left at 3% in the West (down from 8.3%; -64%) and 16% in the East (down from 28.5%; -44%). These proportions are in line with the 2011 Landtag results, recent polling from other firms and the historic evolution of the Left electorate.

I would not exclude the Left getting below 5%, but to see this you would need a result of barely more than 2% in the West.

[Franknburger]

I would really like to se a map of SSW's voter share. From what I can pick up, it looks like SSW lost a bit in the core areas, but gains elsewhere like Kiel

Yes, that would be interesting (in memoriam of my grand-grandmother from Haderslev). If you can provide me with an SVG base map of communities in Schleswig (the State part, not the city/ county), I would do the map. Otherwise, I fear it would take me another four weeks to get the base map ready ..

In any case, the only parts outside historical Schleswig where SSW was running were Kiel, the remainder of Rendsburg/ Eckernförde county, and Helgoland. Helgoland was new, and they got smashing 17.9% there (out of 764 votes in total). In Kiel, they also gained quite strongly. In the city of Flensburg and in Schleswig-Flensburg county, they each lost a bit more than 2%. In Rendsburg-Eckernförde, they lost 0.8%, while in North Frisia they virtually remained unchanged. Leaving aside the many small villages, here a run-down on the larger localities (more than 1.000 total votes)in Rendsburg-Eckernförde:

Eckernförde area
Eckernförde city                                   unchanged at 10 %
Fleckeby                                              up from 15.8 to 17.0
Gettorf                                                down from 3.6 to 3.0
Osdorf                                                 up from 3.4 to 4.9
Kosel                                                   down from 10.6 to 8.6
Rieseby                                               up from 7.8 to 9.2

Kiel area
Altenholz                                            down from 6.9 to 4.9
Dänischenhagen                                up from 3.8 to 4.6
Flintbek                                              down from 4.1 to 3.0
Felde                                                   down from 7.6 to 3.5
Kronshagen                                        down from 4.9 to 4.1
Molfsee                                               unchanged at 2.7
Quarnbeck                                          down from 4.6 to 2.8
Schwedeneck                                     down from 4.0 to 3.6

Rendsburg area
Büdelsdorf                                         up from 7.0 to 7.6
Fockbek                                             down from 5.4 to 4.1
Hohn                                                  up from 4.6 to 5.1
Jevenstedt                                         down from 5.4 to 2.9
Nübbel                                               up from 3.4 to 6.4
Osterrönfeld                                      down from 6.1 to 4.6
Rendsburg city                                  down from 7.6 to 6.7
Schacht-Audorf                                  down from 6.0 to 3.7
Westerrönfeld                                   down from 4.3 to 3.5

Owschlag                                            up from 6.9 to 8.4

non-traditional (northern Holstein)
Aukrug                                                down from 2.9 to 2.6
Bordesholm                                        up from 2.3 to 3.0
Wattenbek (next to Bordesholm)       unchanged at 2.7
Hanerau-Hadermarschen                    down from 4.1 to 2.5
Hohenwestedt                                    down from 4.1 to 2.9
Nortorf                                                down from 4.7 to 2.9
Wasbek (Neumünster suburb)           down from 3.8 to 3.5

I Have not found yet a site for community-level results in Schleswig-Flensburg, so here are just the larger towns that are covered by the state statistical office:

Handewitt                                      down from 24.6 to 20.8
Harrislee                                         down from 33.1 to 29,3
Husum                                            down from 9.5 to 8.8
Schleswig city                                 down from 16.6 to 14.1

Sylt appears to be stable at slightly below 11% (they have recently merged all island communities, so a 2008 comparison requires some number-crunching).

All in all, Kiel appears to be the outlier  (is there a sizeable Danish community in town? - non-German EU citizens were allowed  to vote as well ). Leaving aside Helgoland, I see no signs of SSW growth in non-traditional areas. Quite some loss around Flensburg (which I would call reversal to the mean), much statistical noise, maybe a slight decline elsewhere, and possibly a bit of gains around Eckernförde.