2013 Elections in Germany
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1250 on: September 17, 2013, 12:26:55 PM »

The interesting phenomenon is that even within the same metropolitan area (Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart) some posh suburbs are rather green and others not.
The area I'm thinking of is this one: note the six municipalities in the palest shade on the map on the left, which is that for the Left. Well up on the slope (except Liederbach which doesn't really fit with the rest of the group), devoid of the older urban growth history of Bad Homburg and Oberursel (and in Orschel's case, early industrialization, now long gone but still leaving echoes in settlement patterns) to the northeast or the 70s highrise projects of Steinbach (which built them with the express aim of becoming big enough to avoid annexation by its neighbors. Grin ) and Schwalbach, filled up in the 50s to 70s, not seeing any growth since. Only Glashütten at the northwest gives off any sort of pseudorural vibe, everything else is either dense suburb or forest. Compare the FDP map, compare the Green map.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1251 on: September 17, 2013, 01:05:41 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2013, 01:07:57 PM by ObserverIE »

That approach is fair and has worked in certain cases, such as Ireland

Yes, for values of "worked" equivalent to future stagnation (rather than continued collapse) in GDP and a decline in unemployment mostly due to large-scale emigration of the age groups who are most likely to be needed in the future in order to sustain a functioning economy and society (our birth rates are also dropping rapidly).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1252 on: September 18, 2013, 07:04:44 AM »

AfD is now near the critical mass in 2 new non-frequent polls by IfM Leipzig and Trend Research:

IfM Leipzig: 5%
Trend Research: 4.5%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/weitere-umfragen.htm
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1253 on: September 18, 2013, 07:37:24 AM »

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.
The 'best' answer to this one is probably that they'd have 69 seats and the United Opposition (SPD-FW-Greens, who were very clear on wanting to govern together) 21. That's based on Gesamtstimmen - the Opposition would win, by that count, all eight in Munich, Freising, Regensburg city, both in Augsburg (one of them by less than a hundred votes), three out of four in Nuremberg (West going for the CSU), Fürth, Erlangen city, Nürnberger Land, Würzburg city, Forchheim, and Coburg. A bit surprising that Hof isn't on the list. The CSU just barely outpolled the opposition in Middle Franconia, winning 6 out of 12 there is quite 'fair'.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1254 on: September 18, 2013, 11:15:08 AM »

My preliminary prediction for Sunday:

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
10% Left
  9% Greens
  5% FDP
  5% AfD
  2% Pirates
  4% Others

Turnout: 74%

Result: Grand Coalition
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Beet
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« Reply #1255 on: September 18, 2013, 12:57:40 PM »

Franks burger, even the structural reforms that were demanded and passed didn't get implemented for a long time (maybe not even now). There was no shortage of good ideas for Greece, but when they disappear into the black box called "Greek domestic politics" you can say "antio!" Still, how many experta were saying 2 or 3 years ago Grexit by now? Shes winning the war, even if there are still a few setbacks, history will not remember. anyway off topic.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #1256 on: September 18, 2013, 01:46:08 PM »

Franks burger, even the structural reforms that were demanded and passed didn't get implemented for a long time (maybe not even now). There was no shortage of good ideas for Greece, but when they disappear into the black box called "Greek domestic politics" you can say "antio!" Still, how many experta were saying 2 or 3 years ago Grexit by now? Shes winning the war, even if there are still a few setbacks, history will not remember. anyway off topic.
The black box called "Greek domestic policies" is exactly what was underestimated. Eurozone leaders should have called for structural reforms earlier, and tied fund disbursement to domestic reform progress, not just to fiscal indicators.
Anyway-back to the topic: Steinbrück wouldn't have handled the Euro crisis much differently. He is from a banking family (his grand-grand uncle founded Deutsche Bank), and was Finance Minister until 2009. As such, he probably knows the technical people inside the Ministry of Finance, who are working out the Euro-crisis related policy details, even better than Merkel. So if you look for a reason to prefer Merkel over Steinbrück, the Euro crisis is none.
Nevertheless, while Merkel is lacking clear direction, she is the one on the steering wheel, and Germans are not fond of changing the captain while amidst a storm. As such, you have pretty well summed up the story of this election campaign (and the motivation of maybe half of the German electorate) in two sentences:

What's wrong with boring?
I don't know much about German politics, but I do know about Merkel's leadership during the Euro crisis, and it has been quite good, particularly from the German perspective.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1257 on: September 18, 2013, 02:23:16 PM »

Spiegel article on Steinbruck's campaign. Major problem: a candidate who'd shifted to the right and a party which shifted to the left. Couldn't take partial credit for Agenda 2010 because of its toxicity with his base, yet Merkel could claim its results as her own. Then there's his gaffeaholic tendency.
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ERvND
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« Reply #1258 on: September 18, 2013, 06:01:35 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2013, 06:03:18 PM by ERvND »


Again bullsh**t by the mainstream media. The truth is: It was the media themselves who killed Steinbrück.

When he was nominated, he was the second-most popular politician of the nation, and the only one who seemed to have a chance against Merkel. The media, supporting Merkel unconditionally, sensed this real quick, and so the slaughter began. Steinbrück was lambasted in a way that still makes me cringe.

Funnily enough, their only real argument was that he'd made money by giving speeches. But according to the media depiction, Steinbrück was suddenly responsible for everything bad in this world. Seriously, I expected them to "prove" that he had also been responsible for the Black Death and World War II.

This went on for almost two months, during which there was no other issue than "Steinbrück is so bad". When the hustle was over, he was finished, dead in the water. Could as well have ended his campaign by then. Mind you, this was before he even had a chance to make any "gaffes".
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change08
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« Reply #1259 on: September 18, 2013, 06:13:44 PM »


Again bullsh**t by the mainstream media. The truth is: It was the media themselves who killed Steinbrück.

When he was nominated, he was the second-most popular politician of the nation, and the only one who seemed to have a chance against Merkel. The media, supporting Merkel unconditionally, sensed this real quick, and so the slaughter began. Steinbrück was lambasted in a way that still makes me cringe.

Funnily enough, their only real argument was that he'd made money by giving speeches. But according to the media depiction, Steinbrück was suddenly responsible for everything bad in this world. Seriously, I expected them to "prove" that he had also been responsible for the Black Death and World War II.

This went on for almost two months, during which there was no other issue than "Steinbrück is so bad". When the hustle was over, he was finished, dead in the water. Could as well have ended his campaign by then. Mind you, this was before he even had a chance to make any "gaffes".

The Romney defense.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1260 on: September 19, 2013, 04:42:17 AM »

AfD at 5% according to one of the major pollsters (INSA).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1261 on: September 19, 2013, 04:52:04 AM »

And the Greens continue to sink like a rock in the sea, down from 11% to 8% in the last week.

And down from 15% to 8% in the past month.

Looks like the AfD will definitely get in now and they start hurting the CDU, while the Green share seems to go mostly to the SPD and in some part to the Left and "others".
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #1262 on: September 19, 2013, 07:44:54 AM »

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).
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Zanas
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« Reply #1263 on: September 19, 2013, 09:17:14 AM »

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).
Well it seems to me the Left has been gaining a bit also lately. Granted, it's not very much better than SPD by our standards, especially in the East, but I'll still take it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1264 on: September 19, 2013, 09:25:23 AM »

It is interesting to look at the polls and note the various zero sum shifts between SPD, Linke, and Greens. It seems SPD+Linke+Greens is currently poilling about the same as their collective result back in 2009.   So this election will be decided by a) Will FDP cross 5% (I am pretty sure they will) and b) how much AfD take away from CDU/CSU+FDP and obviously will they cross 5%.
 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1265 on: September 19, 2013, 09:36:22 AM »

Younger than the average CDU voter, not of the party's working class wing, but not the brightest of its voters either ( Tongue ) - it seems, and I'm not the only one noting that, that the AfD surge is actually biting hard into the FDP's loan vote potential.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #1266 on: September 19, 2013, 09:45:09 AM »

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).
Well it seems to me the Left has been gaining a bit also lately. Granted, it's not very much better than SPD by our standards, especially in the East, but I'll still take it.

Yeah I guess things could be worse - if you ignore that 2009 was Left's high point as I am liable to do it still appears to be going backwards (but then polling could be underestimating them), and the again things were looking much more desperate for them only six months ago. I guess if Lewis is right and FDP/AfD don't get in I'd class that as a good result.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1267 on: September 19, 2013, 09:52:42 AM »

I only said the votes may not be there for them to both make it.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #1268 on: September 19, 2013, 09:57:30 AM »

Here's hoping for AfD then!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1269 on: September 19, 2013, 09:59:07 AM »

What if both FDP and AfD succeed ?

I know the FDP has ruled out a AfD coalition, what about the CDU ?

And could their positions change after the election ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1270 on: September 19, 2013, 10:13:21 AM »

New Bayern poll (federal):



Changes compared with 2009:

+4.5 CSU
+5.2 SPD
 -2.8 Greens
 -9.7 FDP
 -4.5 Left
+3.0 FW
+4.0 AfD
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Franknburger
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« Reply #1271 on: September 19, 2013, 10:30:15 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2013, 10:33:36 AM by Franknburger »

Together with the Federal election, a referendum will be held in Hamburg on re-purchase of the transmission grids for electricity, natural gas and distance heating (A similar referendum is scheduled for early November in Berlin).
The official ballot text may be translated as:

"Senate and House will in due time undertake all necessary and legally allowed steps in order to by 2015 fully return grids for electricity, natural gas and distance heating into public hands. Mandatory objective is a socially just, climate-friendly and democratically controlled energy supply from renewable energy.

Do you approve this proposition? (yes/no)"
  
The matter itself is quite complicated, and proponents and adversaries have published various economic and legal studies (I may go into detail in case of interest, but that will take several separate posts).

With respect to the federal election, however, two things are worth noting:

1. The proposal has brought together quite unusual coalitions. The referendum has been initiated by various environmental groups, the Lutheran church, the Hamburg consumer association, and tenant associations. It is being supported by the Greens, the Linke and several labour unions, especially the teacher's unions.
The opposition combines SPD, FDP and CDU, industry associations, the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce, and various other labour unions, most notably the powerful IG Metall.
A major rift goes through the equally powerful service sector labour union Ver.di. One wing, including the labour councils of energy giants EON and Vattenfall, which currently control the grids, opposes the proposals. Another wing, including sections for public sector, social insurance and church employees, supports the referendum.  

I assume that the referendum will lead to Hamburg diverging from the national trend towards a stronger SPD. Disappointed union members may vote Linke. The referendum debate, which is tied into the fact that the current layout of the Hamburg power grid is oriented on nuclear energy production, returns their traditional core argument to the Hamburg Greens and may provide a strong local incentive to vote Green instead of SPD. Unfortunately, Hamburg has not been polled separately since spring, when a poll by the University of Hamburg showed some 5% swing from SPD to the Greens, and 2% from SPD to Linke.

2. The referendum may have substantial mobilisation potential. There seem to be more posters related to the referendum than to the Federal election placed along the streets. Moreover, while the debate initially focused on the power grid, it has over the last weeks concentrated on distance heating, which supplies heating to 450,000 households (slightly less than 45% of all households), especially in densely populated / lower-income parts of the city.  This could lead to higher participation than usual, thereby diluting FDP and CDU vote shares, and especially helping the Linke, but possibly also the Greens.

Hamburg accounts for some 2.2% of the total German electorate, so the overall impact may be limited. But, as tight as the election might become, even fractions of a percent could be decisive.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1272 on: September 19, 2013, 10:41:10 AM »

Today is also the "Elephant Debate" on ARD and ZDF with the frontrunners of all major parties.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1273 on: September 19, 2013, 11:40:36 AM »

Merkel shall be awarded with another term.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1274 on: September 19, 2013, 11:53:57 AM »

Merkel shall be awarded with another term.

That is, unless the SPD pulls off a miracle, guaranteed.
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