2013 Elections in Germany

[Keystone Phil]

Merkel shall be awarded with another term.

That is, unless the SPD pulls off a miracle, guaranteed.

You could have just thanked me for my insight instead of giving me an attitude.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What more shocking insights do you have to share Phil? Is grass green and John Travolta gay?

[Keystone Phil]

What more shocking insights do you have to share Phil? Is grass green and John Travolta gay?

I also predict that the center-right parties will do very well in Bavaria. You heard it here first.

[Leftbehind]

In fairness I'm presuming Phil was joking - I laughed, anyway.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In fairness I'm presuming Phil was joking - I laughed, anyway.

Speaking of people with obvious insights...

[Leftbehind]

Haha f u.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Haha f u.

I love you too.

[ERvND]

What if both FDP and AfD succeed ?

I really hope the AfD will succeed. I do not condone their positions, especially the right- wing pandering. But a successful AfD would (at least partially) redeem one of the biggest disparities in the German landscape of political parties: If the SPD leans to the right, it will splinter on the left. After 2003, the SPD lost around one third of its voters, to the Greens, the Linke, and especially to non-voters. As it seems, this loss will be permanent, rendering the SPD unable to receive more than 30% of the vote nationally.

The CDU/CSU on the other hand, if it leans to the left, nothing will happen. Over the last years, the CDU/CSU adopted left-wing policies to an extent that has become ridiculous. You can really say these parties lost their inner core of basic beliefs - but nobody seemed to care. The reason for this, of course, is of a historical nature: No democratic, serious politician dared to establish a party to the right of CDU/CSU, fearing extremist implications.

Now, if the AfD managed to establish itself, it had the potential to grab 5-10% of the vote, mostly from CDU/CSU and FDP.

Unfortunately, it won't happen, at least not now. Conservative voters are, well, conservative, and that also means they don't like changes in the traditional party system. That's why I believe the AfD will have a strong showing, but won't make it in the end (ca. 3,5-4%).

[Tender Branson]

Last FGW poll for the ZDF:

40.0% CDU/CSU
27.0% SPD
  9.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  5.5% FDP
  4.0% AfD
  6.0% Others

45.5% Government
44.5% Opposition

[Zanas]

Grünen is a trainwreck in the end of this campaign. We now have signs that they could well end up 4th behind Linke, and who knows, if there are a high number of FDP loan votes like in Lower Saxony earlier this year and the Grünen are reduced to their core, we could see something like Linke 8.5%, FDP 7.5% and Grünen 7%, don't you think ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

They were 5th last time, so that would actually be an improvement of position. ;-)
FGW is often slighty underpolling the Greens. And as other pollsters don't publish in the last week and FGW does not give their "political mood" numbers and only made a projection we don't know, if this finals slip is only in their numbers or even only in their assumption how the numbers should look like sunday, though it is possible.

My guess is something like
CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 26,5%
Greens 9,5%
Linke 8,5%
FDP 6,5%
AfD 4.5%
Pirates 2%
Others 4,5% (this is, what should sum up to 100)

My intuition is, that Greens will gain a little bit in the east, though, but lose ground in their strongholds to SPD and partially CDU for Merkel's popularitiy and bourgeois feelings of their electorate.

The reason for the Green gains in the east are, that there are now Greens in all state parliaments, so they are now have faces and not only are seen as an abstract possibility never heard of and demographic reasons (the younger generation votes much more like the younger generation in the west and for the last years has been heading for the bigger cities like Berlin, Leipzig, Dresden, Erfurt or Rostock etc., instead of leaving to the west).

The under 18 mock election (did we cover the actual results?) gives an impression of that (although to take with a grain of salt).

[Franknburger]

This will probably be the last "pol. of polls". Traditionally, polling in Germany stops one week before the election, though some pollsters may do and publish another one next week. Anyway, today we have  FORSA (11.9.), infratest dimap  (12.9.), FG Wahlen (13.9.), EMNID (8.9.), GMS (10.9.) and INSA/TNS (9.9.). As the trends can be deducted from the quote above, this time I add the min-max range in brackets:

CDU:        39.7  (39 40)
SPD:         26.2 (25-28 )
Grüne:      10.5 ( 9 -11)
Linke:         8.7 ( 8 -10)
FDP:           5.2 ( 4 - 6)
Pirates       2.7  ( 2 -3)
AfD             3.1 (2.5-4)
Others       4.1 ( 3  -5)

44.9 (43-46) black-yellow vs. 45.2 (44-47) red-red-green. Prepare for a long election night...

Turns out I have been wrong with "everybody stops publishing polls one week before the election". Only infratest dimap and GMS appear to have staid with this tradition, while FORSA and INSA, OTOH, have even published two new polls during this week.
Here now what is most likely the final "poll of polls", including  FORSA (20.9.),  FG Wahlen (19.9.), EMNID (15.9.), Allensbach (18.9.), INSA/TNS (19.9.), IfM Leipzig (14.9) and Trend Research (17.9.). I also include infratest  dimap's latest results (12.9.), which  were already part of the previous "poll of polls". The min-max range is in brackets:

CDU:        39.0  (38 40)
SPD:         26.7 (26-28 )
Grüne:       9.9 ( 8 -11)
Linke:         8.9 ( 8 -10)
FDP:           5.3 ( 5 - 6)
Pirates       2.4  ( 2 -3)
AfD             4.0 (2.5-5)
Others       3.8 (3.5 -4)

44.2 (43-45.5) black-yellow vs. 45.4 (44.5-46) red-red-green.

As they were the most accurate pollster back in 2009, here the latest FORSA poll that has been published today (trends vs. 11.9.):
CDU:        40 (+1)
SPD:        26 (+1)
Grüne:     10(+1)
Linke:         9 (-1)
FDP:           5 (-1)
Pirates       2 (-1)
AfD             4 (+1)
Others       4 (-1)

Let me also add that both TV pollsters (FG Wahlen & infratest dimap) are traditionally under polling smaller parties, and consequently fared quite badly in 2009. Their initial projections for the Bavaria state elections last Sunday both had the CSU at 49%, vs. 47.7% final result. FG Wahlen tends to have a CDU bias, infratest dimap rather errs on the side of the SPD.

[Tender Branson]

My updated prediction:

38.1% [+4.3] CDU/CSU
27.6% [+4.6] SPD
  8.6%  [-3.3] Left
  8.5%  [-2.2] Greens
  5.2% [+5.2] AfD
  5.0%  [-9.6] FDP (above threshold, something like 5.04 or so)
  2.2% [+0.2] Pirates
  1.3% [+1.3] FW
  1.1%  [-0.4] NPD
  2.4% Others (none of those with more than 1%)

Turnout: 74.3% (+3.5%)

[Franknburger]

New YouGov federal election poll for NRW (change to 2009 in brackets)

CDU               39 (+5.9)
FPD                  5 (- 9.9)
CDU & FDP   44 (-4.0)

SPD               33 (+4.5)
Grüne            11 (+0.9)
Linke               4 (-4.4)
Red-red-gr.  48 (+1.0)

AfD                  3 (+3.0)
Pirates            2 (+0.3)
Others            3 (- 0.3)
All others       8 (+3.0)

They simultaneously polled a hypothetical state election, which has the SPD at 38% (+5 compared to federal), CDU at 35 (-4) and FDP at 4 (-1).  Grüne, Linke and Pirates polled the same for federal as for state, AfD state numbers are not available. Obviously, SPD state PM Hannelore Kraft is more popular than her predecessor Per Steinbrück. Satisfaction with the red-green state government appears to stabilise the Greens, and work against Linke.

[palandio]

My prediction:

36.9% [+3.1] CDU/CSU
26.7% [+3.7] SPD
  9.2%  [-1.5] Greens
  9.0%  [-2.9] Left
  7.3%  [-7.3] FDP
  4.7% [+4.7] AfD
  2.2% [+0.2] Pirates
  1.1% [+1.1] FW
  1.0%  [-0.5] NPD
  1.9% Others

Turnout: 75.0% [+4.2]

[minionofmidas]

What if both FDP and AfD succeed ?

I know the FDP has ruled out a AfD coalition, what about the CDU ?

And could their positions change after the election ?

Federally? No. No way in hell. And have all that political capital Merkel invested in a Euro crisis "solution" that consists of transferring all of Southern Europe's assets onto FDP members' Swiss bank accounts wasted?

I mean, besides the fact that AfD consists of a couple rightwing journalists, a demagogic ratcatcher speaker, and complete unknown amateurs?

[minionofmidas]

I think, if I have to guess, that some of the late SPD polling gains will fail to materialize on election day, much as happened in 2009. I think that if the FDP gets in and the AfD does not, that black-yellow will get back in with a tiny majority of a seat or three. (I think that, in that case, Merkel is likely to lose power and have her career ended by the voters in the 2017 elections.) I think the Left will probably do marginally better than the most optimistic polls. I really do not think I want to put numbers on this gut feeling.

[Franknburger]

This will probably be the last "pol. of polls". Traditionally, polling in Germany stops one week before the election, though some pollsters may do and publish another one next week. Anyway, today we have  FORSA (11.9.), infratest dimap  (12.9.), FG Wahlen (13.9.), EMNID (8.9.), GMS (10.9.) and INSA/TNS (9.9.). As the trends can be deducted from the quote above, this time I add the min-max range in brackets:

CDU:        39.7  (39 40)
SPD:         26.2 (25-28 )
Grüne:      10.5 ( 9 -11)
Linke:         8.7 ( 8 -10)
FDP:           5.2 ( 4 - 6)
Pirates       2.7  ( 2 -3)
AfD             3.1 (2.5-4)
Others       4.1 ( 3  -5)

44.9 (43-46) black-yellow vs. 45.2 (44-47) red-red-green. Prepare for a long election night...

Turns out I have been wrong with "everybody stops publishing polls one week before the election". Only infratest dimap and GMS appear to have staid with this tradition, while FORSA and INSA, OTOH, have even published two new polls during this week.
Here now what is most likely the final "poll of polls", including  FORSA (20.9.),  FG Wahlen (19.9.), EMNID (15.9.), Allensbach (18.9.), INSA/TNS (19.9.), IfM Leipzig (14.9) and Trend Research (17.9.). I also include infratest  dimap's latest results (12.9.), which  were already part of the previous "poll of polls". The min-max range is in brackets:

CDU:        39.0  (38 40)
SPD:         26.7 (26-28 )
Grüne:       9.9 9.8  ( 8 -11)
Linke:         8.9 ( 8 -10)
FDP:           5.3 5.5 ( 5 - 6)
Pirates       2.4 2.2  ( 2 -3)
AfD             4.0 (2.5-5)
Others       3.8 (3.5 -4) 3.9 (3.5-5)

44.2 (43-45.5) black-yellow vs. 45.4 (44.5-46) red-red-green.

Should have kept patient - EMNID has also released their second polling figures for this week (Grüne, Pirates each down 1, FDP, others +1). I have adjusted the poll of polls above accordingly.
Maybe we see another GMS poll as well. However, infratest dimap has announced they won't publish a pre-election poll. In any case, I still hope for some regional polling coming out in tomorrow's newspapers (Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, and Baden-Würtemberg, which all haven't been polled for quite a while, would be especially nice), so I refrain from any projection until all polls are in.

[minionofmidas]

Vote splitting through the ages.

[rob in cal]

   I'm interested in just what percentage of votes go to parties that don't cross the 5% threshold.  If FDP and AFD both narrowly fail that will be alot.  Also, if just one of them fails it means that of say 10% of the vote going to parties under 5%, a strong majority will be going to parties of the right and/or center.  So we could see a situation where a very narrow majority  of the vote goes to parties from the FDP rightwards, but such parties would gain only about maybe 48% of the seats, if only one of the FDP or AfD makes it into the Bundestag.
    I'm calculating that alot of the vote for sonstiges (others) is for right leaning parties, and am counting the Pirates as on the left.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

[jaichind]

   I'm interested in just what percentage of votes go to parties that don't cross the 5% threshold.  If FDP and AFD both narrowly fail that will be alot.  Also, if just one of them fails it means that of say 10% of the vote going to parties under 5%, a strong majority will be going to parties of the right and/or center.  So we could see a situation where a very narrow majority  of the vote goes to parties from the FDP rightwards, but such parties would gain only about maybe 48% of the seats, if only one of the FDP or AfD makes it into the Bundestag.
    I'm calculating that alot of the vote for sonstiges (others) is for right leaning parties, and am counting the Pirates as on the left.

How would you count the Animal Protection party.  In theory that should be Left but one can argue that the NASDP regime (ironically) was also very into animal rights and pass the world's real animal rights laws.   I guess Ecological Democratic Party counts as right.  In fact one can use the back to nature arguments for both these parties label them as Right.

[jaichind]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

Yep, in fact the best way to force a Grand Coalition is vote for AfD.  If AfD passes 5% then there is no alternative to CDU/CSU-SPD govenment.  In fact a vote for AfD is the best way to to stop a SPD-Green-Linke government even though SPD insist that such a government is not possible. AfD getting across 5% will make it mathamatically not possible.  Just like a vote for AfD is the best way to stop a CDU/CSU-FDP government.

[Franknburger]

Here is my guess where some of the "others" vote may go: Die PARTEI - Partei für Arbeit, Tierschutz, Eliteförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Party for Labour, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites, and grass-roots Initiative - acronym PARTY). Created in 2004 by the satirical magazine TITANIC, it originally got attention by calling for re-erecting the Berlin Wall, and turning former East Germany into a large-scale smoking area. Their election slogan is "Inhalte überwinden" "Overcome content".

A few election posters:

"F**king. Work. Christian Social. Al under one hat. Your candidate (the one with the hat)."[Berlin]


"Serious (solid / reliable) politics. Olaf Schlösser, Minister for Corruption." [Dortmund]


"Competence need Consonants" [Marburg, Hesse]

Apparently, grass-roots local initiative not always manages to stay 100% free of content:
 
"Upgrade TXL (Berlin-Tegel airport) to TXXL. Your candidate Feline Guck, Commissioner for long-distance transport"


"Less Skyline with the Muslim Brothers! (We integrate everything)" [Frankfurt].

They gained quite some media attention with a fake NPD poster displaying former FPÖ leader Jörg Haider, who died in a car crash a few years ago, and the slogan "Gas geben" (Step on the gas):


Last week, they created another media uproar by airing a spot on "family policy" at prime time on public TV. The spot consisted of a pixeled soft porn, with the closing slogan "The PARTY makes you feel well". Watching the spot on YouTube requires registration to prove you are over eighteen, but you can get an idea as well here:
http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/kurioses/article119933167/Die-Partei-wirbt-mit-raetselhaftem-Porno-Wahlspot.html

Some other spots:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noNLwB-G8h4
"Studies from Iceland have proven PARTY voters to be twice as happy as other voters. Vote now, and get an extra bunch of bananas for free!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFJo77X_aAY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kirUQFPEAuo

The PARTEI gained 0.7% in the 2011 Hamburg State election, and 1.3% in this year's local election in Lübeck.  I could well imagine them coming in at similar levels in most larger cities plus university towns, which will probably amount to 0.5-0.7% overall.

[Keystone Phil]

What time do the polls close on Sunday?