2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

First Hessian municipality in - federal result that is.

Cornberg
turnout 73.5 (-1.9)
SPD 46.8 (+7.9)
CDU 26.3 (+3.6)
Left 7.5 (-10.5)
AfD 4.9
Greens 4.3 (-1.6)
NPD 3.6 (+1.3)
FDP 2.9 (-6.4)
Pirates 2.0 (+0.8)

As you may guess, this is not a particularly representative place (it was the Left's best result in 2009). But an interesting indicator of where what losses and gains may be coming from.

[Tender Branson]

ARD (West Germany):



ARD (East Germany):

[Tender Branson]

Direct vote for Chancellor:

[freek]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

Or the UK elections of 2005 where Labour won an absolute majority with 35%.

[Tender Branson]

Approval ratings of party leaders among ALL voters:

[jaichind]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

Or the UK elections of 2005 where Labour won an absolute majority with 35%.

Well, UK is FPTP so that is reasonable from a technical point of view.  But Turkey just like Germany is a PR system so having results like this is out of the ordinary.

[hawkeye59]

These are only exit polls, right?

[Beezer]

Projections with actual results.

[minionofmidas]

Some Frankfurt results in. Heavy on working class suburbia, where AfD is doing at about 7 - exactly where they're also in the one posh-ish inner urban precinct in. Overall it's at 5.8 on these very much partial results.

[hawkeye59]

Projections with actual results.

Well, the official results page is showing nothing, but what percent is in?

[Franknburger]

Results from  my village:

CDU     44.0 (+7.6)
SPD     25.8 (+1.2)
Grüne  10.5 (+2.2)
FDP       6.8 (-12.4)
Linke     4.9 (- 1.4)
Pirates   1.8 (+0.4)
AfD        3.1 (+3.1)
NPD       0.6 (-1.1)
others    2.4 (+0.4)    1.5% Animal Protection

[Tender Branson]

Projections with actual results.

Well, the official results page is showing nothing, but what percent is in?

Results (they are announced by district) are not coming in for another hour or so.

Germany is using paper ballots and 2 votes need to be counted and protocollized.

And in Hessen, they have a state election too.

[Hifly]

Does anyone have the Hamburg results page? I can't find it for some reason.

[hawkeye59]

Ah, so "projection" has a very different connotation in Germany than in the United States.

[afleitch]

That would be an amazing result of CDU/CSU getting an absolute majority with 42.5% of the vote due to the 5% threshold.  Reminds me of the Turkey election of 2002 where AKP won an absolute majority with 34% due to the 10% threshold.

Or the UK elections of 2005 where Labour won an absolute majority with 35%.

Well, UK is FPTP so that is reasonable from a technical point of view.  But Turkey just like Germany is a PR system so having results like this is out of the ordinary.

Scotland's relatively new system delivered an SNP majority with a 45% vote share. They even racked up a seat in a region where they won every single constituency seat. While mathematically possible of course it just took people by surprise.

[Tender Branson]

Ah, so "projection" has a very different connotation in Germany than in the United States.

The "projectors" from ARD and ZDF use precinct data to create their projections.

The more data they get from counted precincts, the more precise the projection becomes.

The "projectors" probably know how many precincts are already in "at the moment", but unlike in Austria, this gets never broadcasted in Germany.

[Franknburger]

Latest update on projections (ARD/ZDF/RTL)

CDU       42,5 / 42.5 /42.2
SPD       25.5 /25.9 / 25.8
Grüne     8.0 /  8.0  /  8.1
Linke       8.1 /  8.4 /  8.4
FDP         4.6 /  4.6  / 4.6
AfD          4.9 /  4.9 / 4.7

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm almost certain AfD will get in.
I would be more happy if that didn't mean a Grand Coalition. (Not that a CDU majority would be a given even if the AfD stayed out.)

[minionofmidas]

Huh... Christian Democrats - Volker Bouffier, Wolfgang Schäuble - are openly saying they hope the FDP gets in. (And implying their is no question that the AfD won't, lol.)
Not trusting their own backbenchers, are they?

[Tender Branson]

"Angela Merkel represents our country well in the world."

"Angela Merkel doesn't make party politics, but politics for the country."

[jaichind]

Huh... Christian Democrats - Volker Bouffier, Wolfgang Schäuble - are openly saying they hope the FDP gets in. (And implying their is no question that the AfD won't, lol.)
Not trusting their own backbenchers, are they?

Well, if this were the case they should have been open of loaning votes to FDP. 

[Kevinstat]

The woman in the mediacenter link people seemed to act as if the CDU/CSU might form a coalition with the SPD even if they have an absolute majority.  Resident Germans, if the CDU/CSU has a majority of 1, is there any reason why they would form a coalition government?

How are vacancies filled in the Bundestag.  Is a majority of 1 as stable as a huge majority, or is it like Britain when you need a majority of like 20 to last a full term, or is it somewhere in between?

Even if a 1 seat majority is "death-proof," might there be some hotheads with the CDU/CSU caucus who Merkel would be concerned about in a narrow-majority government?

Or is the mediacenter woman deluding herself in acting as if a CDU/CSU majority of 1 absolutely means a CDU/CSU government, period?

[Beezer]

1 seat ought to be enough. In Germany your allegiance lies with the party, not the district.

[minionofmidas]

Huh... Christian Democrats - Volker Bouffier, Wolfgang Schäuble - are openly saying they hope the FDP gets in. (And implying their is no question that the AfD won't, lol.)
Not trusting their own backbenchers, are they?

Well, if this were the case they should have been open of loaning votes to FDP. 

They want an FDP at 5 to 6 percent, not one at 10 percent plus. -_-

A one seat majority is death-proof (again, now that the law has been changed - it wouldn't have been 1995-2012 if dependent on overhang); but the Chancellor is elected in a secret vote at the beginning of the term. There have always been secret defectors. Losing that vote would be the Supergau. That said, not trying when you have a majority would also be virtually impossible.

[minionofmidas]

My home precinct.

Agentur für Arbeit Ffm (08001)
   
reg'd voters 1.252 (includes postal voters)
votes cast 508 (does not)   
CDU 128 25,7 %
SPD 145 29,1 %
FDP 28 5,6 %
Greens 71 14,3 %
Left 70 14,1 %
Pirates 13 2,6 %
AfD 30 6,0 %
PARTEI 6 1,2 %