2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

And 40% women in yesterday evening's TV "Elefantenrunde" - 100% CDU, 100% CSU, 0% SPD, 0% Grüne, 0% Linke.

This is the gender split according to the FG Wahlen exit polls (female/ male):

CDU:      44 / 39
SPD        24 / 27
Linke        8 /  9
Grüne     10 /  7
FDP          4 /  5
AfD          4 /  6

Communication, perception, and reality....

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, makes sense. And is nothing new (actually, the size of the CDU's gender gap is, I think.)

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

And 40% women in yesterday evening's TV "Elefantenrunde" - 100% CDU, 100% CSU, 0% SPD, 0% Grüne, 0% Linke.

And FDP "not defined". (For outsiders: Brüderle getting told that he was disinvited from that because it was clear the FDP wasn't getting in - and presumably because they couldn't very well have him but not Lucke - must have been quite the humiliation.)

[minionofmidas]

Sächsische Schweiz is such a sh**thole..

Beautiful, though. Lovely.

[Leftbehind]

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

What was it previously?

And FDP "not defined". (For outsiders: Brüderle getting told that he was disinvited from that because it was clear the FDP wasn't getting in - and presumably because they couldn't very well have him but not Lucke - must have been quite the humiliation.)

[Franknburger]

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

And 40% women in yesterday evening's TV "Elefantenrunde" - 100% CDU, 100% CSU, 0% SPD, 0% Grüne, 0% Linke.

This is the gender split according to the FG Wahlen exit polls (female/ male):

CDU:      44 / 39
SPD        24 / 27
Linke        8 /  9
Grüne     10 /  7
FDP          4 /  5
AfD          4 /  6

Communication, perception, and reality....

Here the gender gap in 2009:
CDU/ CSU:    36 / 31
SPD              23/ 23
Linke            11 / 13
Grüne           12 /  9
FDP              13 / 16
others            5 /  7

and in 2002:
CDU/ CSU:    38 / 39
SPD              40 / 37
Linke             4 /   4
Grüne            9 /   8
FDP               7 /   8
others            3 /  4

In 2002 (Schröder vs. Stoiber), red-red-green got 53% of the female vote, CDU/CSU/FDP 45%.
Yesterday, it was 42 - 48.
Male vote: 2002 49 - 47, 2013 43 - 44.

To put it differently: The SPD needs another womaniser a la Brandt/ Schmidt/ Schröder to have a shot on the chancellorship. There just isn't any in sight.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Or they would need Hannelore Kraft.

[minionofmidas]

This gives the states' final seat tallies of

Schleswig Holstein
24 CDU 11 SPD 9 Left 1 Greens 3
Hamburg
13 CDU 5 SPD 5 Left 1 Greens 2
Lower Saxony
66 CDU 31 SPD 25 Left 4 Greens 6
Bremen
6 CDU 2 SPD 2 Left 1 Greens 1
North Rhine Westphalia
138 CDU 63 SPD 52 Left 10 Greens 13
Hessen
44 CDU 21 SPD 15 Left 3 Greens 5
Rhineland Pfalz
31 CDU 16 SPD 10 Left 2 Greens 3
Saarland
9 CDU 4 SPD 3 Left 1 Greens 1
Baden Württemberg
78 CDU 43 SPD 20 Left 5 Greens 10
Bavaria
89 CSU 56 SPD 20 Left 4 Greens 9
Berlin
27 CDU 9 SPD 8 Left 6 Greens 4
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania
13 CDU 6 SPD 3 Left 3 Greens 1
Brandenburg
20 CDU 9 SPD 5 Left 5 Greens 1
Saxony Anhalt
19 CDU 9 SPD 4 Left 5 Greens 1
Saxony
33 CDU 17 SPD 6 Left 8 Greens 2
Thuringia
18 CDU 9 SPD 3 Left 5 Greens 1

States where FDP and AfD did badly (NRW, Berlin, Lower Saxony) profit handsomely.

I think I want to calculate how this would look with FDP and AfD in... but I really need a table with the party's raw votes by state all in one place for it (I didn't calculate the final distribution myself, using the official results instead).

cxu spd left green fdp afd
Schleswig Holstein
9   8   1   2   1   1
Hamburg
4   5   1   2   1   1
Lower Saxony
27   22   3   6   3   3
Bremen
1   2   1   1   0   0
North Rhine Westphalia
56   46   9   11   8   6
Hessen
18   14   3   5   3   3
Rhineland Pfalz
14   9   2   2   2   2
Saarland
4   3   1   0   0   0
Baden Württemberg
38   18   4   9   5   4
Bavaria
50   20   4   8   5   4
Berlin
8   7   5   3   1   1
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania
6   2   3   1   0   1
Brandenburg
9   5   5   1   1   1
Saxony Anhalt
9   3   4   1   0   1
Saxony
16   5   7   2   1   2
Thuringia
9   3   4   1   1   1

So...
Alexandra Dinges-Dierig, Thomas Stritzl (both CDU SlH), Matthias Ilgen (SPD SlH), Valerie Wilms (Greens SlH), Jürgen Klimke (CDU HH), Maik Beermann, Heiko Schmelzle, Wilfried Lorenz, Barbara Woltmann (all CDU Lower Saxony), Heinz-Joachim Barchmann, Hiltrud Lotze, Bernd Westphal (all SPD Lower Saxony), Herbert Behrens (Left Lower Saxony), Else Hornhues (CDU Bremen), Kerstin Radomski, Sylvia Jörrißen, Helmut Nowak, Karsten Möring, Jutta Eckenbach, Heinrich Zertik, Rita Stockhofe (all CDU NRW), Norbert Spinrath, Dirk Wiese, Petra Hinz, Ulrich Hampel, Helga Kühn-Mengel, Burkhard Blienert (all SPD NRW), Alexander Neu (Left NRW), Friedrich Ostendorff, Ursula Schauws (both Greens NRW), Stefan Heck, Helmut Heiderich, Charles Huber (all CDU Hessen), Birgit Kömpel (SPD Hessen), Xaver Jung, Johannes Steiniger (both CDU RhP), Marcus Held (SPD RhP), Corinna Rüffer (Greens RhP), Markus Tressel (Greens Saar), Heinz Wiese, Gabriele Schmidt, Nina Warken, Margaret Horb, Peter Hinz (all CDU BaWü), Johannes Fechner, Dorothee Schlegel (both SPD BaWü), Annette Groth (Left BaWü), Matthias Gastel (Greens BaWü), Matthäus Strebl, Reiner Meier, Bernd Fabritius, Astrid Freudenstein, Julia Bartz, Gudrun Zollner (all CSU), Doris Wagner (Greens Bavaria), Philipp Lengsfeld (CDU Berlin), Matthias Schmidt (SPD Berlin), Azize Tank (Left Berlin), Lisa Paus (Greens Berlin), Jeannine Pflugradt (SPD McPom), Marina Kermer (SPD SnA), Rosemarie Hein (Left SnA), Yvonne Magwas (CDU Saxony), Susann Rüthrich (SPD Saxony), Michael Leutert (Left Saxony), Sigrid Hupach (Left Thuringia)...

all of you owe your seats to the unreasonably high threshold. Hürdengewinnlerpack.

(The only ones of these I've heard of are Charles M Huber and Vera Lengsfeld's son. Though here is a picture of Azize Tank. Just because.)

Let's see who you have replaced...

Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP SlH), Ulrike Trebesius (AfD SlH), Burkhardt Müller-Sönksen (FDP HH), Jörn Kruse (AfD HH), Philipp Rösler, Patrick Döring, Angelika Brunkhorst (FDP Lower Saxony), Bernd Lucke, Ulrich Abramowski, Jens Paulsen (AfD Lower Saxony), Guido Westerwelle, Daniel Bahr, Gisela Piltz, Otto Fricke, Frank Schäffler, Michael Kauch, Bijan Djir-Sarai, Marco Buschmann (FDP NRW), Georg Dilger, Michael Balke, Jörg Burger, Ulrich Wleke, Hendrik Rottmann, Hermann Behrendt (AfD NRW), Heinrich Kolb, Stefan Ruppert, Björn Sänger (FDP Hesse), Konrad Adam, Roland Klaus, Albrecht Glaser (AfD Hesse), Volker Wissing, Rainer Brüderle (FDP RhP), Klaus Müller, Josef Kallrath (AfD RhP), Dirk Niebel, Birgit Homburger, Hartfrid Wolff, Michael Link, Florian Toncar (FDP BaWü), Bernd Kölmel, Roland Geiger, Helmut Schneider, Jan Rittaler (AfD BaWü), Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, Horst Meierhofer, Miriam Gruß, Marina Schuster, Jimmy Schulz (FDP Bavaria), Andre Wächter, Steffen Schäfer, Brigitte Stöhr, Franz Eibl (AfD Bavaria), Frank Lindner (FDP Berlin), Joachim Starbatty (AfD Berlin), Leif-Erik Holm (AfD McPom), Fritz Neumann (FDP Brandenburg), Alexander Gauland (AfD Brandenburg), Michael Heendorf (AfD SnA), Jan Mücke (FDP Saxony), Frauke Petry, Horst Metz (AfD Saxony), Patrick Kurth (FDP Thuringia), Michael Kaufmann (AfD Thuringia).

[Franknburger]

Pirates PV, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 1%-steps, from <1 to >4

2009 (Pirates not on the ballot in Saxony)


2013


As in 2009, their strongest constituencies have been Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (5.8,-0.2) and Berlin-Mitte (4.7,+0.5). followed by Dresden II - Bautzen II (4.4).
While their charme is passing away across much of Northern Germany and Bavaria, they have made some inroads into NRW and Baden-Würtemberg, presumably picking up disaffected Green voters there. Their map is gradually converging with the Green map, especially as concerns university towns.
Their weakest constituencies were Cloppenburg-Vechta (1.2,-0.1) and Unterems (1.3,-0.5).

[DL]

Interesting that in Germany the gender gap seems to have women more rightwing than men. In North America women tend to be significantly more leftwing than men in their voting behaviour because they tend to see rightwing parties like the GOP or the Conservatives as being led by "mean guys" who want to savagely cut social programs and health care etc...

[minionofmidas]

33% women in the new Bundestag - 23% CDU/CSU, 40% SPD, 54% Greens, 55% Left

What was it previously?

The same, though that's only because of the CDU gains offsetting the female share gains in that very party:
33% overall - 19% CDU/CSU, 26% FDP, 39% SPD, 53% Greens, 55% Left

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People over analyse gender gaps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, anyway, the CDU's performance in the East. Personal vote for Merkel or some sort of (semi?) permanent shift. Discuss.

[minionofmidas]

People over analyse gender gaps.

Men are 4 points more likely to do so than women.

[minionofmidas]

So, anyway, the CDU's performance in the East. Personal vote for Merkel or some sort of (semi?) permanent shift. Discuss.

Brandenburg moving in line with the other states is presumably a permanent shift.

A huge part of the East German electorate will remain to be swayable by all parties and their lead personnel. (Not all of them voted CDU this year. This is not the ceiling. Far from it.) That too is permanent, but not a shift.

[Franknburger]

Finally, a look at 2013 vote participation, automatically generated from http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html
Colouring in 5%-steps, from <65% to >80%



As in the previous elections, suburbia has been most committed to civic duties. Ludwigsburg (80.2, +4.7) tops the list, followed by Berlin-Steglitz-Zehlendorf (79.9,+0.4) ,which is easily the most (upper-class) suburban part of the city. Even though the East-West divide remains clearly visible, the Berlin and Dresden suburbs are gradually getting at par with the West.

In the West, South-Eastern Bavaria, as well as some blue-collar urban areas such as Duisburg, Hamburg-Harburg-Bergedorf, and Bremen II-Bremerhaven, continue to display vote participation strongly below average. It also seems that quite a number of Bavarians did not feel like visiting the election office again after previous' Sunday's Bavaria state election. Participation was lowest in the Sachsen-Anhalt constituencies of Harz (58.9,-2) and Anhalt (59.4, +1.9).

[minionofmidas]

Figures from 24 Frankfurt precincts, roughly representative for the city, with age-and-gender coded ballots.

Turnout (also includes voters from these precincts to request a postal ballot)
18-24 57.5 (-3.6)
25-34 71.0 (-0.3)
35-44 75.0 (-1.6)
45-59 75.3 (+1.0)
60+    75.2 (+1.7)
60-69 77.0
70+    74.0 (distinction is new)
men   73.8 (-0.5)
women 72.3 (+0.5)
 
There is a turnout gender gap of seven points among the over 70 year olds... everything else is mild (two points or less, with two groups having higher female than male turnout). Add the fact that there's a lot more women than men over 70...

party share
18-24 SPD 30.6 CDU 20.9 Greens 17.7 Left 13.6 FDP 3.8 AfD 3.4
25-34 CDU 27.6 SPD 26.1 Greens 18.4 Left 10.4 FDP 7.0 AfD 4.2
35-44 CDU 29.3 SPD 23.6 Greens 20.1 Left 8.5 FDP 7.0 AfD 6.0
45-59 SPD 27.7 CDU 26.9 Greens 18.5 Left 12.9 AfD 5.6 FDP 4.9
60-69 CDU 34.1 SPD 31.3 Greens 11.6 Left 11.6 AfD 5.0 FDP 4.1

wait for it...

70+ CDU 50.4 SPD 28.8 FDP 6.3 AfD 4.8 Left 4.3 Greens 3.6

Today's 70 year olds were 25 in 1968.

men CDU 29.1 SPD 27.4 Greens 13.7 Left 11.0 FDP 6.8 AfD 6.8
women CDU 34.7 SPD 27.4 Greens 16.9 Left 9.1 FDP 4.7 AfD 3.5

(More detail here)

[DC Al Fine]

CDU did better among women. I assume that's because right leaning men are more likely to vote FDP or AfD?

[minionofmidas]

CDU did better among women. I assume that's because right leaning men are more likely to vote FDP or AfD?

Yes (primarily according to the federal poll, pretty much entirely according to the Frankfurt sample).

[jaichind]

It seems in former East Germany, NPD support is positively correlated with AfD and in former Wester Germany, NPD support is negatively correlated with AfD.

[rob in cal]

Concerning the ideological disproportionality of the results, of course the FDP and the NDP would never work together, that I realize.  I was including them together as part of the non-leftist electoral majority that won something like 52.5 to 53% of the vote.  Is is plausible to include the Ecological Democratic Party on the right?  Seems like the are to the right on some issues.
    By my count I get about 45.3 % of the vote to leftist parties (SPD, Linke, Greens, Pirates, Animal Welfare, Marxist Leninists, Violets), and the aforementioned roughly 52.5 to 53% to non-leftist groups, assuming we can count Ecological Democrats, Bavarian Party, Alliance for Germany together with the bigger parties.  The 5% threshold law has worked its random and arbitrary electoral magic yet again.
    If voters could have a second choice to be used if their party didn't cross the threshold, how would Afd, Pirate and FDP voters have responded?  

[jaichind]

Concerning the ideological disproportionality of the results, of course the FDP and the NDP would never work together, that I realize.  I was including them together as part of the non-leftist electoral majority that won something like 52.5 to 53% of the vote.  Is is plausible to include the Ecological Democratic Party on the right?  Seems like the are to the right on some issues.
    By my count I get about 45.3 % of the vote to leftist parties (SPD, Linke, Greens, Pirates, Animal Welfare, Marxist Leninists, Violets), and the aforementioned roughly 52.5 to 53% to non-leftist groups, assuming we can count Ecological Democrats, Bavarian Party, Alliance for Germany together with the bigger parties.  The 5% threshold law has worked its random and arbitrary electoral magic yet again.
    If voters could have a second choice to be used if their party didn't cross the threshold, how would Afd, Pirate and FDP voters have responded?  

I made the argument before that Animal Welfare might be considered Right just like Ecological Democratic Party should be considered Right.  Both are back to nature parties which I can argue has roots in the NASDAP regime.

[rob in cal]

But has the Animal Welfare party staked out other positions that would qualify it as right leaning? I know the Ecological Democrats have, but not sure about the Animal Welfarites.

[Franknburger]

So, anyway, the CDU's performance in the East. Personal vote for Merkel or some sort of (semi?) permanent shift. Discuss.

Brandenburg moving in line with the other states is presumably a permanent shift.

A huge part of the East German electorate will remain to be swayable by all parties and their lead personnel. (Not all of them voted CDU this year. This is not the ceiling. Far from it.) That too is permanent, but not a shift.

Let's have a look at the "development poles" in the East, and what happened to the combined  CDU-FDP vote there:
Germany                          46.3   (-2.0)
Dresden I:                         42.9   (-4.6)
Dresden II-Bautzen II         41.8  (-6.3)
Chemnitz                           41.9  (-1.3)
Gorlitz                               46.9  (-3.6)
Leipzig I                            39.8  (-3.0)
Leipzig II                           35.6  (-2.4)
Gera-Jena                          36.8  (-1.1)
Erfurt-Weimar                    37.1  (+0.2)
Gotha-Ilm                          40.6  (+0.8 )
Halle                                 40.8  (+0.3)
Potsdam                            34.7  (+2.8 )
Dahme-Spreewald              37.5  (+4.2)
Oberhavel-Havelland I        39.1  (+2.8 )
Magdeburg                        39.8  (+1.8 )
Rostock                             39.8  (+2.1)
Schwerin-Parchim               42.6  (+1.5)

Saxony: Underperformance, both in relation to the federal vote average, and with respect to capturing disaffected FDP voters (which rather went towards AfD, Pirates, and "others"). I think the CDU has reached her peak here.

Thuringia / Halle Moderate gains, but to levels that are still below comparable areas in the West. Nevertheless, might be semi-permanent.

Western Berlin periphery: Considerable gain, also on the expense of the SPD, but still far below the vote obtained in the Hamburg or Frankfurt periphery (not even speaking of Munich here). CDU gains are probably to continue for some time with further growth of the Berlin metro.

North-East: Quite some gain, especially on the expense of Die Linke. However, SPD has been
gaining equally here. The CDU gain can surely be attributed to Merkel. However, rather than her personality, her support for wind power generation, which has become the dominating industry in the region, may have been decisive. As such, the vote may switch to the SPD, possibly also the Greens over time.

Everything else in Eastern Germany is pretty much over-aged and de-populating. The CDU is set to  gain in these sparsely populated, lowly industrialised areas, with or without Merkel. Rather than SPD/ & Linke, they will on the long term have to most fear competition from the right (AfD, NPD), and from exurban Greens.  

[minionofmidas]

Concerning the ideological disproportionality of the results, of course the FDP and the NDP would never work together, that I realize.  I was including them together as part of the non-leftist electoral majority that won something like 52.5 to 53% of the vote.  Is is plausible to include the Ecological Democratic Party on the right?  Seems like the are to the right on some issues.

Not really - certainly to the left of CDU and FDP.

[2952-0-0]

When did religious affiliation cease to play a role in party loyalties (west of the former Wall that is)? Was it the 1968 movement, or was it a longer term postwar trend?