2013 Elections in Germany

[jaichind]

Wow.  FDP now is part of "other" in Berlin.

[jaichind]

Looks like the CDU loan votes for FDP worked.  In retrospect SPD should have loaned some votes to Linke.

[jaichind]

ZDF exit polls show 36.5 vs 36.5.  Wow, this will take a while to figure out who won and will have to take into account the FPTP winners.

[jaichind]

ZDF

FDP 9.6
Green 13.5
SPD 32.9
CDU 36.8

CDU/FDP    46.4
SDP/Green 46.4

[jaichind]

This should be seen as disappointing to CDU.  If CDU were told ahead of time that Left would be below 5% and FDP will be above 5%, then CDU would have expected a small but significant majority.  Instead it is neck to neck.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  The worst actually is New York State where I live.  10 weeks after the nov 2012 elections, they finally have the results in for one of the New York State Senate races.  Florida is bad, New York is worse.

And I doubt that Lower Saxony is as bad as Florida in counting votes.

[jaichind]

Merkel party leads state vote; majority unclear: exit polls
Jan. 20 (AFP) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party was in the lead Sunday after the first state poll in a general election year, exit polls indicated, but it was unclear whether its coalition would hang on to power.
Exit poll results from Lower Saxony broadcast on public television showed Merkel's Christian Democrats leading with around 37 percent and their current coalition partners, the Free Democrats, with about 10 percent. The Social Democrats had about 33 percent and their favoured allies the Greens 14 percent.
The knife-edge race was due to develop throughout the night as results trickle in, determining which coalition will come out on top eight months before a national election that will decide whether Merkel wins a third term.
The Christian Democrats (CDU) were down from their 42.5 percent score at the last election in 2008 but appeared to benefit from the popularity of state premier David McAllister, a half-Scot seen as a potential Merkel successor.
The big winners of the night, however, were the pro- business Free Democrats (FDP), who looked to tally their best result in Lower Saxony in post-war history.
Polls had indicated they risked slipping below the five- percent hurdle required for seats in the state parliament but they seemed to get a lift from conservative voters splitting their ballots under Germany's two-vote system in a bid to rescue the coalition.
If the FDP failed to win representation, its embattled leader Philipp Roesler, who is also Merkel's vice chancellor, was seen as likely to step down -- possibly as soon as Sunday night.
The outcome seemed to give him a reprieve, if only brief. Around 6.2 million people were called to the polls in Lower Saxony, home to European auto giant Volkswagen and run by the same centre-right alliance with which Merkel governs in Berlin.
If the state coalition holds on to power, analysts say it will give Merkel, who already enjoys a robust lead in national polls and ranks as Germany's most popular politician, a strong boost heading into the September election.
But if the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens manage to eke out a victory -- a distinct possibility based on the exit polls -- pundits say it could help shore up the battered campaign of Merkel's gaffe-prone challenger Peer Steinbrueck.
Steinbrueck, a former finance minister from Merkel's 2005- 09 "grand coalition" government, was anointed by the SPD as its chancellor candidate last autumn.
But he has run into trouble in recent months with revelations that he made around 1.25 million euros ($1.66 million) over the last three years in speaking fees, and with comments that Merkel owed much of her popularity to her gender. dlc/gd

 

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.5%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

The party that seems to be gaining as the count goes on seems to be FDP

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP      46.3%
SDP/Greens  45.9%

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.2%
SPD/Greens 46.1%

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.2%

No change from previous projection 30 minutes ago.

[jaichind]

What about a tie.  Would not that not mean a grand coalition?

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

[jaichind]

Intresting.  It would seem that a majority SPD/Greens would be out if CDU would get these bonus seats.   I guess what they have to hope for is to win by one seat and in turn means a tie which would mean a grand coalition.

Some background on Lower-Saxony FPTP:

According to the latest ARD & ZDF polls, the CDU would be entitled to 53 seats. However, the last FPTP projection published a a few days ago projected 54 FPTP seats for the CDU. In this case, the CDU would keep the extra seat. If they gain more than 54 FPTP, other parties would get compensated (i.e. the seat total rises), but even after compensation, CDU might stil get one seat more than they would get on proportional assignment.

According to available data, Hannover FPTP seats should go 4 SPD, 1 CDU, which is in line with pre-election predictions

[jaichind]

Will there be an uproar if due to overhand seats bonus, CDU/FDP wins less votes than SPD/Greens but comes to power with a one seat majority?  Or does the population accept that as part of the system.

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP     46.2
SPD/Green   46.0

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.3

Both seems to be released around the same time.

[jaichind]

FPTP seats I think SPD already won 32 out of the 87 seats available.  That means that CDU at most will have 55 seats in FPTP seats.  It seems that given current vote shares, CDU should get around 56 seats.  This means the chances of a overhang of seats for CSU is low.

[jaichind]

SPD up to 33 seats out of 87. 

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP       46.0
SPD/Greens   46.3

With CDU getting overhang seats window closing, it seems that it will either be a 2 seat lead for SPD/Greens or a tie.  Most likely a tie.  This is fun.

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP       45.9
SPD/Greens   46.3

The SDP/Greens lead is growing.

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.2

but does project SPD/Green seat lead of 69-68

[jaichind]

For what it's worth, ZDF came up with the same seat projections as ARD.

ARD says that red-green have won according to their "final projection". But everybody knows better than to trust the ARD.

[jaichind]

I sort of feel, am completely ready to be wrong, that SPD gained more from this than CDU.  At least they can claim SPD/Greens beat CDU/FDP fair and square without any help from Left going over 5% or FDP going below 5%.  Of course the gain is tiny but I feel they are net winners from this.

[jaichind]

So in addition to this 500 € / semester fee, how much does the student/parents pay for college in Germany.  I assume it is different for public and private universities.

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

[jaichind]

Ok.  I guess I just need to calibrate my expectations on college expenses relative to my own personal experience.  Myself and many members of my family who are in USA all went to fairly elite and expense universities.  Back when I went back in the 1990s, it was $30K a year, relatives that went a decade later was $40K a year and now it is $50K a year.  Even public universities are around 10K-15K these days.  Other relatives that are back in Taiwan Province of ROC, the annual cost of college is around $2K which most people there find quite reasonable and is still higher than  500 €/semester especially given the relative low cost of living in Taiwan Province.   This is why I am taken aback that 500 €/semester would become a campaign issue that potentially shifted the result of this election.