2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

I don't know if Germany has a political satire show like Private Eye or SNL

It's called the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Because nobody in the core votership of either party feels anything but contempt for the notion except as a last resort. (Journalists and younger career politicians tick very differently, of course.)

[minionofmidas]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

[minionofmidas]

Widespread discussion within the FDP, that the results of the Lower Saxony election are going to trigger the resignation of federal chairman Philipp Rösler.

Who's next in line? Rainer Brüderle, I suppose. Probably also an improvement over Rösler and Westerwelle, since Brüderle somewhat maintains an aura of authenticity and a certain folksy charm. His speeches are also almost incomprehensible, which can't really hurt when you're a FDP politician these days (Brüderle has a tendency to mumble a lot, combined with a Rhenish accent).

Being a notorious wino doesn't help either.

[minionofmidas]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

Part of the problem is that FDP has become increasingly redundant.

They were big on civil liberties once, but

throughout the Kohl years it was purely lip service. (Or I guess right in 82-4 they prevented a rollback of 70s reforms... but after that...) And up to the early 70s, the civil liberties-interested people were but a welldefined wing, and usually a minority one, within a party they shared with people who were, for want of a better word, somewhat reformed old nazis. Those people, insofar as they didn't just die or retire, defected to the CDU over the Ostverträge, of course.

[minionofmidas]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

[minionofmidas]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

We'll see, but Lower Saxony really doesn't seem like a place where the Left should be doubling its support at the last minute...

Meh, who knows whether that 3% was ever accurate.

Also, of course... the Left got 7.1% in 2008, more than in Hesse on the same day (though that had a lot to do with the state SPD being wholly uninspiring and the resulting low turnout) and 8.6% at the 2009 federals, above their West German average.

[minionofmidas]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

I remain of the opinion that crashing out of the Bundestag would probably be the death of the FDP, and have been at pretty much any point since the 60s.

[minionofmidas]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

It's too late, for 2013.

And it's not as if the nationwide Left has been trying to become more "respectable" either, the hard left's influence has grown.

[minionofmidas]

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

And things are moving that way at the state level.

[minionofmidas]

One wonders how the narrative will change after sunday, indeed. If tigerduck is not reelected, that is - that would not create a new narrative.

[minionofmidas]

Alright, for the heck of it, a prediction.

CDU 41.6%
SPD 28.1%
Greens 13.6%
FDP 5.5%
Left 5.2%
Pirate 3.0%
other 3.0%

McAllister barely hangs on.

[minionofmidas]

listening to the NDR livestream, they seem to be hinting it's looking good for black-yellow.

[minionofmidas]

guesstimated final turnout 60.5%.

These are often quite wrong, though.

[minionofmidas]

CDU 36.0
SPD 32.5
FDP 10.0
Greens 13.5
Left 3.5
Pirates 2.0

Some surprises. And a long wait.

[minionofmidas]

"If you want to see McAllister reelected you have to vote FDP".

[minionofmidas]

ZDF

FDP 9.6
Green 13.5
SPD 32.9
CDU 36.8

CDU/FDP    46.4
SDP/Green 46.4

ARD has CDU-FDP narrowly ahead in votes, but also at effective tie.

[minionofmidas]

lmao, they actually polled FDP supporters in the exit poll. These percentages agreed with the following propositions...

91% I could have just as well voted CDU
87% I cared mostly about reelecting McAllister
68% My vote is a classic "borrowed vote"
45% I decided to vote FDP some time ago
33% the FDP is the party I feel closest to
20% I am wholly convinced of the party I voted for

They actually said they've never seen numbers quite as crass.

[minionofmidas]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

[minionofmidas]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

1 plus the possibility of 2.

[minionofmidas]

The state page does not do running counts, only releasing district results once they're complete. And seems to be down due to traffic. Same old same old...

[minionofmidas]

http://www.wahl.hannit.de/

Looks like the SPD is ahead across most of the Hanover suburbs. Lacks comparison figures, though.

[minionofmidas]

both blocks equal

That would be so hilarious.

[minionofmidas]

CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    39,1    37,7    4,6    11,5    3,7
Veränderung    +5,6    -5,4    -1,5    +7,9    -5,2
Abgegebene Stimmen    10914    10524    1297    3222    1034
Piraten: 3,4% 936.
Zweitstimmen    CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    34,0    34,5    8,2    12,9    3,9
Veränderung    -2,0    -0,4    +0,9    +7,1    -6,2

Delmenhorst list SPD 34.5 (+0.9), CDU 34.0 (-2.0), Greens 12.9 (+7.1), FDP 8.2 (+0.9), Left 3.9 (-6.2)
direct however... CDU 39.1 (+5.6), SPD 37.7 (-1.5), Greens 11.5 (+7.9), FDP 4.6 (-1.5), Left 3.7 (-5.2)

Looks like a popular incumbent stood down... and like Green voters didn't split their tickets much.

EDIT: Or that.

[minionofmidas]

http://wahlarchiv.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-01-20-LT-DE-NI/html-wkreise-20-42.shtml

At last, a working link to the results announced so far.