2013 Elections in Germany

[Leftbehind]

Wish the Pirates would eff off.

[Leftbehind]

Well that's part of their problem: they obfuscate the national picture with their rag-tag support. I am pleased their bubble has burst, though.

[Leftbehind]

Been appreciating your insight, Franknburger.

[Leftbehind]

Wanka.

[Leftbehind]

Loser McAllister is even funnier.

[Leftbehind]

Shouldn't FDP be listed after the Left and Greens.

[Leftbehind]

Mainly statistical noise, not much to comment about.

Have the Left done anything recently? 3 of the 4 polls there have them gaining a point.

[Leftbehind]

Maybe we are at a point where Steinbrück's image is so utterly ruined that one gaffe more or less simply doesn't matter. I mean, what will be next? He eats cute babies for breakfast? Yawn.

He could always have a foreign Labour/socialist leader talk down his policies as ridiculous.

[Leftbehind]

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is that testamant to how unrepresentative self-selecting online polls are, or has the media line swung heavily against him in recent days?

[Leftbehind]

Nah, I meant the Spiegel poll Franknburger had been earlier chronicling, which shown a 50/50 split, narrowly in favour of his comments.

[Leftbehind]

If the SPD remains as unsexy and devoid of real chance to take over the chancellorship as at current (highly likely) and interest in the elections picks up anyways to the point where turnout at least doesn't take another freefall on top of the last one (fairly likely, but far from certain) both Left and Pirates will end up several percentage points above their current polling.

Imagine the Left would be pretty pleased with 10%> after some pretty underwhelming polling of late.

[Leftbehind]

Catch-22: moving leftwards to recapture lost votes on that flank, or stay the centre-left course to keep floating votes while leaving the left flank alone? Steinbruck clearly prefers the latter and his "adjustment" is painfully obvious. Otherwise I agree with you.

Like Peter, I think it's fairly straightforward.

If they're not looking to reunite/coalesce much of the Left, then they're not seriously looking at government, beyond self-defeating grand coalitions. The combined CDU/CSU/FDP vote polling at the moment is at a low ebb when compared to the past thirty years worth of elections (and you'd expect that approaching their third term), and although the CDU/CSU is one of the strongest figures, it seems to have been bolstered by a collapsing FDP - suggesting perhaps that these are not 'floating voters/moderates' but the traditional half (and more) of the population that these parties have always attracted finding their best home, which the SPD will have enormous trouble winning over (and it looks like they're doing just great at the moment!).

Having to convince the SPD to represent the Left (democratic socialism/environmentalism/social democracy), coaxing it out of its ruinous centrism with arguments of electoral benefits is my despair with much of today's Left in a nutshell. Although there's always the possibility if they do jump into another grand coalition, they might be usurped.

[Leftbehind]

AfD is rather a threat for another black-yellow majority in September. They might be able to gain enough former FDP-votes to keep the party below five percent. A significant part of FDP-supporters is dissatisfied with Merkel's management of the Euro-crisis.

But even if FDP reached 5%, AfD would still be a threat to it if they also obtained 5%, no?

[Leftbehind]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

That's a really good poll for the left?

Not particularly:

[Leftbehind]

lol absurd.

[Leftbehind]

Are these lows or reversals of 2009 heights?

[Leftbehind]

Only a youth section of a Conservative party would highlight that god awful stage-managed stance as a plus, as if it sets her apart from the legion of party drones who've learnt to do the exact same thing.

[Leftbehind]

At the mercy of Google translate, and not bothering to weight, I got:

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[Leftbehind]

the welfare dependent proletarians have stopped voting at all

Could that possibly be because social democrats have largely washed their hands of them? It's funny, some of social democrats most loyal defenders seem to have absolutely no faith in social democracy, or in your case seem to think it's redundant now it's achieved all of its goals (I'm astounded by that claim - I thought it was far more ambitious than the bog-standard liberalism it's reverted to).

[Leftbehind]

I think the argument can be made that if the SPD had truly embraced Schröder's reforms (the way most Labour supporters accepted New Labour)

Sorry, but most Labour supporters haven't accepted New Labour, and the only way SPD could've replicated it is if they'd brought in two-party FPTP, effectively leaving the left no alternative but to hold their nose and vote to keep the right out, else waste their vote or stay at home.

The already faltering New Labour project came crashing down at the party's feet, as all the chickens came home to roost leading up to the 2010 GE, and an awkward sounding wonk has been elected leader since then mainly on the basis of keeping the continuity candidate out.

Anyway.

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[Leftbehind]

Compared to the SPD, Labour's move to the center has definitely been far more successful and, more importantly, enduring. Schröder introduced Agenda 2010 and was ousted two years later (barely admittedly), with the SPD hovering around 25% of the vote now thanks to the infighting (imo). Blair was elected on the New Labour manifesto and re-elected twice. I'd say that's a pretty good track record for New Labour regardless of what its members now think of it. It has left a lasting mark on the party that will be quite difficult to shake off.

Again, this pays little attention to the electoral system - and how that can't be replicated in a system where left-wing voters have alternatives.

And if it hadn't been for the weird leadership electoral system, a Blairite would be at the head of the party today.

But under OMOV, David would've lost the advantage he had amongst the PLP, and you'd be merging the Members and Affiliated sections, resulting in latter having more power from their diluted origin (weighted down to make up a third). Either way, the fact that it was competitive in the first place, given Ed's awkward disposition - I think, anyway - speaks volume.

[Leftbehind]

Is this more evidence of young people Worldwide are leaning more to the right, apart from their US counterparts who are moving to the left

"More evidence" lol.

[Leftbehind]

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).

[Leftbehind]

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).

Well it seems to me the Left has been gaining a bit also lately. Granted, it's not very much better than SPD by our standards, especially in the East, but I'll still take it.

Yeah I guess things could be worse - if you ignore that 2009 was Left's high point as I am liable to do it still appears to be going backwards (but then polling could be underestimating them), and the again things were looking much more desperate for them only six months ago. I guess if Lewis is right and FDP/AfD don't get in I'd class that as a good result.

[Leftbehind]

Here's hoping for AfD then!