2013 Elections in Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, plenty of politicians suffer from chronic foot-in-mouth syndrome; probably best to separate Steinbrück's rather severe case of that condition (which has been known about for many years anyway) from the SPD's structural difficulties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Yes, this is normally the way with so-called 'gaffe-prone' politicians. It isn't as though they don't do the things they're pulled up for, it's that when this happens there's usually an agenda at work.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not pretending that he doesn't have a foot-in-mouth problem or even really defending him as such, just agreeing with the obvious truth that this sort of thing is only ever an issue when the media have decided to make it an issue. Of course you can soon get to the point where things that are not 'gaffes' are deemed to be them: Michael Foot's donkey jacket that wasn't, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This topic comes up here on a fairly regular basis; I'll dig out some old posts later (or someone else will or something). But basically the issue is that pre-1933 SPD strength in Saxony was based on the Party subculture (which was deeply embedded - to an almost remarkable extent - in some parts of Saxony; Leipzig and surrounds especially, though the pin up for it would be Freital at the other end of the state), something that was completely eliminated by over five decades of dictatorship. And it's also worth noting that while the SPD held up better in parts of Saxony than just about anywhere else in Germany during the early 30s, in some other parts (for which read: the Erzgebirge and the Vogtland) they completely collapsed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the problem?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously Steinbrück has not always behaved in an entirely comradely way towards international comrades, but there's no obvious problem in letting bygones be bygones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How fantastically German.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All of which cleverness forgets that heavy defeats have certain psychological consequences which are rarely entirely helpful; one reason for the presumably less than entirely successful nature of Steinbrück's candidature (including the fact that such a screamingly obvious yesterdays man is the candidate; that's quite some massive unconscious defeatism right there) is the heaviness of Steinmeier's defeat in 2009.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

German election billboards seem easy enough to make: take a stock photo, add a party logo somewhere, and then attach a corny partisan message of some kind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With general regards to one line of discussion, as recently as 2005, the SPD polled 34% across Germany and as recently as 1998 managed 41%. And whatever may have changed irrevocably since, and whatever longterm factors may well (and certainly actually do)* lurk around, it is pathetic to blame the party's current lousy (federal) electoral situation entirely on things that are 'inevitable' or in some other way totally out of their control.

_{*And certainly do... but those in Germany are not quite the same as those in Austria or Britain or wherever, because the postwar SPD was never quite so utterly dependent on working class voters living in working class communities.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that although the SPD and Labour have a lot in common, there are important differences that we should be careful not to forget. At least in terms of the idea of 'moving to the centre' and so on, like and like aren't being compared.

For instance, the postwar SPD was never as far to the left as Labour had (semi-accidentally, but that's not important in this context) ended up being by the mid 1980s; unless I'm very wrong (and I'm never wrong) the SPD did not lose repeatedly to Kohl because they were 'too left-wing'. Although Labour was never a Marxist party, it didn't stop officially believing in utopia until the revision of Clause IV in 1995 - the equivalent moment for the SPD was in 1959.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is little reason to assume David M would have done as well in a "normal", delegates system.

There's every reason to assume that he'd have done considerably worse. The candidate who would have really benefited would have been the one I voted for (but probably wouldn't have if I thought he had any chance of winning).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blank constituency map, with inserts for Berlin and Hamburg. Feel free to use for whatever purpose thou dost feel like, etc.

There will probably be a couple of errors: am happy to correct when/if they're pointed out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If those children were Turkish they'd probably gain votes amirite?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is in reference to... what?

Post immediate above.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Germany isn't France, basically. And even when that kind of dodgy nonsense is tried in France (the PS-Greens deal, say), there is often local resistance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but the FDP is a sham (or at least 50% of one), while those other parties aren't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(god, was that just four years ago?)

I know, right? It's almost as much fun as it is to recall that 'Cleggmania' was but three years ago...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As the right is polling lower in this poll than in the elections polls, I don't see how this is a possible conclusion.

You come to this conclusion by cherry picking surveys that seem to fit the claim or even by cherry picking parts that seem to from surveys that probably don't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously if he had a chance of winning, that kind of thing would be a mistake (except in Australia, presumably), as it is its maybe better to at least try to come across as deliberately 'abrasive' (ahem) than as a dull old guy who sometimes says stupid things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The FDP being eliminated would be quite a delightful silver lining...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FDP dropping to 4.4% at ZDF... fat lady getting ready...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

Ah, yes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3 or 4 seats will definitely not be a problem. 1... it's impossible to predict.

Because you only need one absolute fruitcake who is also laughably bitter at the leadership. And all big parties...