2013 Elections in Germany

[DC Al Fine]

What the heck happened to the SPD to make them so bad?

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

Got it. One other thing. Why does a Black-Green coalition poll so low? It's even worse than the CDU-FDP one.

[DC Al Fine]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

And they pretty much sealed the deal when, after running their election campaign on the "More net from gross" (income) slogan, they agreed to raising public system health insurance premiums by 0,5%, without coming up with any meaningful cost reduction proposal.  Note that the Ministry of Health is run by the FDP.
SPD and Greens have for long been demanding to liberalise the pharmacy sector, allowing the entrance of internet pharmacies and larger pharmacy chains, in order to cut down on the exessively high costs of pharmaceutical distribution, but self-employed pharmacists are known to be one of the most loyal FDP voters groups ..

Oh yes, and then there were the Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein FDP divisions running  "shut down dangerous nuclear reactors" campaigns during the respective state elections, in reaction to several major failures of the Krümmel reactor which is located some 30 km south-east of Hamburg. And what was the first action of the FDP-run Ministry of Economy? Revoking the old red-green compromise on gradually phasing out nuclear energy. After Merkel's post-Fukushima turnaround, the Krümmel reactor was the first to be immediately shut down, but that is being credited to Merkel, not to the FDP.

Need more? Just ask, there is plenty ..

You need to post more

[DC Al Fine]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

[DC Al Fine]

Explanations for the FDP bursting from the grave?

[DC Al Fine]

Is Brandenburg a deeply Red state? Sure seems like it from that poll.

Steinbruck: Yeah, still stuck on stupid. I can't wait for the debates.

Yes, CDU came 3rd in the last state election there.

[DC Al Fine]

How many signatures are needed in Germany to be on the ballot federally and in the states ?

200 (from the district) for a direct candidate, 2000 or in the small states 0.1% of the total electorate for every state list. At least you can sign as many petitions as you want to. Parties represented federally or at the state level (actually it's a little more complex: you need to have won five seats, as a result of the actual election result, federally or in at least one state at the last election) are excempt from the requirement to 'announce their attention' to stand and to submit signatures according to wikipedia, so I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong. Also, parties 'representing a national minority' (however representing is defined here) don't need signatures.

And I just read I can't legally sign anybody else's petitions now - only one state list and one direct candidate per voter (but they don't need to be of the same party). Mind you, it's unlikely I would have gotten the chance.

Are there any minority parties besides that Danish one?

[DC Al Fine]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

There are only 180 seat in the Bavarian parliament, and with full FPTP (180 constituencies), there would probably have been a second Munich constituency for SPD, so it would have been 178 CSU - 2 SPD. I also guess that without the quirky Bavarian system, which uses the FPTP vote as part of the PV vote, some Green/FW vote splitting might have helped the SPD to a few more FPTP seats.
Nevertheless, the basic message remains true, and a reminder of how unrepresentative a pure FPTP system can become. 

Parties change their behaviour to fit the system though. The SPD isn't putting up as much of a fight in close constituencies as say the Labour Party would in the UK. I could see SPD winning a few more seats than or 2 under FPTP

[DC Al Fine]

So what's the future of FDP/AfD assuming they win no seats?

[DC Al Fine]

The Stasi party has, of course, just barely missed out on a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Results using D'Hondt, 1% Threshold, and 598 Seats

CDU/CSU: 256
SPD: 159
Green: 53
Linke: 52
FDP: 29
AfD: 29
Pirate: 13
NPD: 7

We would presumably have a grand coalition under this more proportional scenario.

[DC Al Fine]

CDU did better among women. I assume that's because right leaning men are more likely to vote FDP or AfD?

[DC Al Fine]

I like how mixed the AfD's support is. Baden-Wuttremburg & Saxony