The best a Democrat can do in West Virginia (2016)
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  The best a Democrat can do in West Virginia (2016)
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Author Topic: The best a Democrat can do in West Virginia (2016)  (Read 6716 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: December 18, 2012, 02:21:42 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?
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TNF
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2012, 02:25:51 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2012, 02:33:57 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.
I doubt that any Democrat who doesn't take a clear pro-coal stance has any chance to win West Virginia, even Clinton.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2012, 02:38:14 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.
Correct, assuming she maintains her popularity all the way until Election Day, which has about a 5% chance of happening.
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opebo
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2012, 02:40:33 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

I doubt it very much, except for Arkansas.
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2012, 03:10:37 PM »

It depends on whether there's a rebound in coal there.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2012, 03:10:56 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

I doubt it very much, except for Arkansas.

Clinton was an evil libruhl socialist up until 2008... that challenge she gave Obama really tickled the fancies of all the old, white racists in the party.  Surprisingly, the progressives and mainstreamers still love her just the same.  I think she has a nice chance in these Upper South states if she's running against a Romney-type... against a Bush-type from the R.R., she likely doesn't do any better than Gore did against Bush.  
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Simfan34
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2012, 07:06:01 PM »

Depends on the Chinese economy.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2012, 08:54:37 PM »


Huh
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2012, 09:13:29 PM »

Manchin/Beshear would annihilate any Republican here.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2012, 09:38:26 PM »

Clinton would have a shot in WV.
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2012, 09:43:00 PM »

I would say a Democrat can get to 44% in West Virginia in a reasonable election (no more lopsided than 1988, 1992, 1996 or 2008) and would probably be with Texas, Tennessee and perhaps the Dakotas, Mississippi and Alaska as the last set of states that a Democrat could probably ever win, after the third tier of states of Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Arizona and  Georgia.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2012, 09:53:46 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

I recall so many of you scoffing when I said repeatedly that Obama would hit an historic low for Democrats in WV.

Some of you goons even said Obama would IMPROVE in WV (And Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas...)  Hahaha

Clinton would not win Ark, Tenn, Ky or W. Va. 

Next...
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2012, 10:08:12 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

I recall so many of you scoffing when I said repeatedly that Obama would hit an historic low for Democrats in WV.

Some of you goons even said Obama would IMPROVE in WV (And Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas...)  Hahaha

Clinton would not win Ark, Tenn, Ky or W. Va. 

Next...

Like I said, 44% is about the D ceiling there, if a D retakes WV, it will because he got 60% nationally.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2012, 12:12:58 AM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.
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Beezer
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2012, 07:36:29 AM »
« Edited: December 20, 2012, 07:39:11 AM by Beezer »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

To be honest I don't see how one candidate can singlehandedly turn around trends that have been in the making for decades. Obama lost Arkansas by 24 points, its state legislature is now in the hands of the GOP for the first time since...Reconstruction (?), all 4 members of the House are Republicans, similar story in TN and throughout the rest of the South. Yes, part of that may be due to the fact that he's black but I don't see that many white voters in LA and other places jumping ship just because of HRC's skin color.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2012, 09:15:46 AM »

Thankfully, WV is only worth a few EVs. There are too many issues working against the Dem party in this state to think that anyone could make it close. The oft-mentioned war on coal to social issues like hunting will hurt Dems here for the foreseeable future.

The only question is, could a Southerner make it really close or even bring it back into the fold, as in a southern Dem? I doubt it. It's that odd mix of blue collar conservative that sees a rich, privileged person running for President and says, "Maybe that person could do for me what he did for himself." Which is a powerful idea in hunting, rural, working class cultures. And there are others who think a majority of wealthy people actually worked for it, and deserve their huge tax cut at the expense of society, education, etc. 
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2012, 03:18:23 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.

This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black.  Its not.  It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that.  Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%
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Zioneer
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2012, 03:31:57 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.

This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black.  Its not.  It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that.  Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%

The idea that he's far left is a perception, and an incorrect one at that.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2012, 04:28:52 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.

This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black.  Its not.  It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that.  Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%

The idea that he's far left is a perception, and an incorrect one at that.

Indeed, it has much more to do with cultural identity politics than it does with actual policy.  Obama is an urban politician, talks like an urban politician, and campaigns like an urban politician.  Add in the fact that Democrats have been declining in Appalachia for a generation now due to the decline in unions, the Democratic shift left on social issues, and the perception that the Democrats are anti-coal in the region and you have the perfect storm for Republicans to perform well there in national elections.  

The fact that he's black doesn't really help Obama in these areas, either, but that's hardly the leading factor.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2012, 05:57:08 PM »

Georgia added 3 new Natural Gas power plants this year.  North Carolina added two and has two more under construction.  Virginia has one under construction and another about to start.  These are all states that slashed the amount of coal they used from West Virginia and  Kentucky this year and will continue that trend in the future. 

Is Pennsylvania a coal state?  It's added the most NG generation over the last decade of any state.  Is Ohio?  It hopes the Utica will be as successful as the Marcellus.

The Appalachians have the oldest and most expensive coal mines, you have to dig deeper or go after thinner veins to get what's left.  They're pretty much helpless against NG.  Most of WV and Eastern Kentucky have nothing but coal.  Good luck.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2012, 06:59:05 PM »

Coal is undergoing a decline that seems irreversible, but don't count on the coal titans in West Virginia to explain that to their workers. They obviously have scapegoated Barack Obama and other Dems successfully, because it's easier to blame liberals, the president with the funny name, and the EPA than understanding the many economic, political and environmental factors that are sinking the industry.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2012, 07:13:36 PM »

Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.

This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black.  Its not.  It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that.  Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%

Please explain to me why so many people in the states discussed above were willing to vote for John Kerry over George W. Bush in '04 but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Obama.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2012, 08:11:59 PM »

In 1952, WV cast 870,000 votes for President and had 8 electoral votes, This year it cast 670,000 and had 5 EVs, after 2020 Census it will have 4 EVs.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2012, 08:48:51 PM »

Only a Democrat in West Virginia can get West Virginia
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