IL-Gov: Bill Daley considering run

[RogueBeaver]

Demolition derby incoming? Question to Illinoisans- does his clientele overlap with Madigan's or not?

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/bill-daley-considering-run-illinois-governor

[nolesfan2011]

Illinois has the most corrupt politics in America...

Demolition derby incoming? Question to Illinoisans- does his clientele overlap with Madigan's or not?

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/bill-daley-considering-run-illinois-governor

[Zioneer]

Is there any non-corrupt or at least less corrupt Illinois politicians?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is there any non-corrupt or at least less corrupt Illinois politicians?

Isn't Madigan okay?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I haven't heard any evidence Quinn is corrupt, people just don't like him because he's probably the politician in America whose economic policies are closest to opebo's.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I hope not.  And I also hope that Madigan doesn't run either.  This should be one of the easiest R pickups in 2014.  As Vosem said, Illinois may be safe Dem at the national level, but as the elections of Mark Kirk, Dan Rutherford, and Judy Baar Topinka (as well as the near-election of Bill Brady) demonstrated, Republicans can be competitive at the state level.

[Franzl]

I haven't heard any evidence Quinn is corrupt, people just don't like him because he's probably the politician in America whose economic policies are closest to opebo's.

Come again?

[Niemeyerite]

I hope not.  And I also hope that Madigan doesn't run either.  This should be one of the easiest R pickups in 2014.  As Vosem said, Illinois may be safe Dem at the national level, but as the elections of Mark Kirk, Dan Rutherford, and Judy Baar Topinka (as well as the near-election of Bill Brady) demonstrated, Republicans can be competitive at the state level.

In 2010.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I hope not.  And I also hope that Madigan doesn't run either.  This should be one of the easiest R pickups in 2014.  As Vosem said, Illinois may be safe Dem at the national level, but as the elections of Mark Kirk, Dan Rutherford, and Judy Baar Topinka (as well as the near-election of Bill Brady) demonstrated, Republicans can be competitive at the state level.

In 2010.

Right, but if they could do so well in 2010, what makes you think that they couldn't this year, especially because Obama will still be president and Gov. Quinn is even less popular now?

[sg0508]

If the GOP couldn't win the mansion in 2010 during an off year and in a very big GOP year, with Mark Kirk leading the ticket on top (and winning), what makes you think they're winning it this time?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I haven't heard any evidence Quinn is corrupt, people just don't like him because he's probably the politician in America whose economic policies are closest to opebo's.

Come again?

I was under the impression he's doing Keynesianism similar to how opebo promotes it.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If the GOP couldn't win the mansion in 2010 during an off year and in a very big GOP year, with Mark Kirk leading the ticket on top (and winning), what makes you think they're winning it this time?

Quinn is even less popular now and the GOP has several statewide officeholders, unlike 2010.  And Brady lost because he was too far-right for the Chicago suburbs.  Besides, remember that Quinn only won by less than 1 point last time.

[Simfan34]

Is there any non-corrupt or at least less corrupt Illinois politicians?

Obama?

[Niemeyerite]

I hope not.  And I also hope that Madigan doesn't run either.  This should be one of the easiest R pickups in 2014.  As Vosem said, Illinois may be safe Dem at the national level, but as the elections of Mark Kirk, Dan Rutherford, and Judy Baar Topinka (as well as the near-election of Bill Brady) demonstrated, Republicans can be competitive at the state level.

In 2010.

Right, but if they could do so well in 2010, what makes you think that they couldn't this year, especially because Obama will still be president and Gov. Quinn is even less popular now?

I think 2014 won't be like 2010. That's it.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I hope not.  And I also hope that Madigan doesn't run either.  This should be one of the easiest R pickups in 2014.  As Vosem said, Illinois may be safe Dem at the national level, but as the elections of Mark Kirk, Dan Rutherford, and Judy Baar Topinka (as well as the near-election of Bill Brady) demonstrated, Republicans can be competitive at the state level.

In 2010.

Right, but if they could do so well in 2010, what makes you think that they couldn't this year, especially because Obama will still be president and Gov. Quinn is even less popular now?

I think 2014 won't be like 2010. That's it.

Good point, but if Quinn's job approval is lower now and Republicans have three elected officeholders statewide, then what makes you think he would survive this time?  Granted, if Daley or Madigan run in the Dem primary, then that would complicate things, but I am salivating at the chance to beat Pat Quinn in 2014.  I thought he would lose in 2010, and I was heartbroken when I was wrong, but he would have lost if Republicans hadn't been beholden to ideological purity and nominated Jim Ryan instead.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Governor Quinn is primaried he will lose, and I can't think of any good reason for Madigan and/or Daley not to primary him. If =/=Governor Quinn is the Democratic nominee they will win. If Governor Quinn is the Democratic nominee he still might win, but he'd be defying gravity to do so.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If Governor Quinn is primaried he will lose, and I can't think of any good reason for Madigan and/or Daley not to primary him. If =/=Governor Quinn is the Democratic nominee they will win. If Governor Quinn is the Democratic nominee he still might win, but he'd be defying gravity to do so.

I don't think Madigan or Daley will run against him (I certainly hope not), but even if they both ran Quinn could still pull it out by a split in the vote against him.

[Abhakhazia]

I think that this is a safe R pickup, especially if Quinn stays on. I'm not really all that sure Madigan will run, with her father being the fairly universally hated Speaker of the House, even though she's generally popular. I think that State Treasurer Rutherford will become Governor, though.

[tmthforu94]

I think that this is a safe R pickup, especially if Quinn stays on. I'm not really all that sure Madigan will run, with her father being the fairly universally hated Speaker of the House, even though she's generally popular. I think that State Treasurer Rutherford will become Governor, though.

I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a safe pickup for us, but if Quinn is the Democratic nominee, we're certainly favored. It'll be a bit difficult however if Madigan is their nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike Madigan runs the govt in Illinois due to an absent Gov. Quinn.  I think people are looking for leadership in whoever runs not someone who just do what is being told.  Bill Daley is in fact a corrupt politician but Mike Madigan won't run him like he did Blago and Quinn.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think that this is a safe R pickup, especially if Quinn stays on. I'm not really all that sure Madigan will run, with her father being the fairly universally hated Speaker of the House, even though she's generally popular. I think that State Treasurer Rutherford will become Governor, though.

I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a safe pickup for us, but if Quinn is the Democratic nominee, we're certainly favored. It'll be a bit difficult however if Madigan is their nominee.

I agree with both of you.

[RogueBeaver]

So Brady, Rutherford, potentially Schock in the Pub primary?

[Vosem]

So Brady, Rutherford, potentially Schock in the Pub primary?

Brady I don't think is going to try again, period. Rutherford and St. Sen. Dillard (who came in second to Brady in 2010 by just a few hundred votes; he's one of the leftiest people in the modern GOP, and I believe he was in fact an Obama '08/Romney '12 voter) are definitely running again; if it's just a straight matchup between the two of them, Rutherford wins. If there are more conservative candidates (Schock is most prominent, but it could also be just random folks; for whatever reason, lots of places in downstate Illinois have a 'favorite son effect', where if you're from a certain county that county will vote for you, even if you're just a Some Dude; see the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary for several examples of this phenomenon), then Dillard could very well win.

Dillard would basically be a certain winner in the general against anyone not named 'Lisa Madigan'. Rutherford would be a tossup; somebody else, probably from downstate, would probably lose to anyone not named 'Pat Quinn'.

That's how I'm seeing this race, anyway.

[RogueBeaver]

How would the primary calculus change if Schock ran? Apparently he's had some initial meetings with the RGA already. A bit hard because he'd have to vacate his House seat (IL doesn't have LBJ laws, amirite?), depending on when the filing deadlines are for each race.

[Vosem]

How would the primary calculus change if Schock ran? Apparently he's had some initial meetings with the RGA already. A bit hard because he'd have to vacate his House seat (IL doesn't have LBJ laws, amirite?), depending on when the filing deadlines are for each race.

Illinois has the earliest primary for statewide offices in the nation (it is in February of election year, long before most state filing deadlines), and I believe it has the earliest filing deadline as well. The only states where you don't have to not seek reelection to the House to run for Governor are MS, LA, KY, VA, and NJ, for obvious reasons. (In certain states which are very far removed from DC, it is common to outright resign before your retirement to focus on the campaign -- Abercrombie and Heftel both did this in Hawaii, and it may be a legal requirement in Arizona, I can't recall, and some people just do this anyway, like Deal did in Georgia).

How hard would the calculus change? The more conservative candidates there are, the better Dillard's chances become.