IL-Gov: Bill Daley considering run
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  IL-Gov: Bill Daley considering run
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #25 on: December 29, 2012, 05:25:22 PM »

How would the primary calculus change if Schock ran? Apparently he's had some initial meetings with the RGA already. A bit hard because he'd have to vacate his House seat (IL doesn't have LBJ laws, amirite?), depending on when the filing deadlines are for each race.

Illinois has the earliest primary for statewide offices in the nation (it is in February of election year, long before most state filing deadlines), and I believe it has the earliest filing deadline as well. The only states where you don't have to not seek reelection to the House to run for Governor are MS, LA, KY, VA, and NJ, for obvious reasons. (In certain states which are very far removed from DC, it is common to outright resign before your retirement to focus on the campaign -- Abercrombie and Heftel both did this in Hawaii, and it may be a legal requirement in Arizona, I can't recall, and some people just do this anyway, like Deal did in Georgia).

How hard would the calculus change? The more conservative candidates there are, the better Dillard's chances become.
What about Dan Rutherford?  It seems to me like he's probably going to run, and he's probably using the State Treasurer's office in Illinois as a stepping stone to becoming governor.  If he could win in 2010 even as Bill Brady was narrowly losing (thanks, Tea Partiers!), then he can get elected governor in 2014, especially against Quinn. 
Oh, and why do so many people think Kirk Dillard would have beaten Quinn if he had been the GOP nominee in 2010?  I only saw one poll on it and Quinn was beating Dillard comfortably.  The only Republican who was beating Quinn was Jim Ryan, and if he'd been the nominee rather than the ideology hacks' favorite Brady, then he (Ryan) would be governor of Illinois today.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #26 on: December 29, 2012, 05:31:43 PM »

Rutherford's probably favoured as the conservative candidate if Schock doesn't run, as Vosem and I mentioned earlier.
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sg0508
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« Reply #27 on: December 29, 2012, 06:59:07 PM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2012, 10:44:49 AM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2012, 10:47:11 AM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #30 on: December 30, 2012, 02:22:42 PM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
I don't believe Franken necessarily be (re-)defeated in 2014, but if any strong Republicans step up to the challenge I would love to see him lose as revenge for stealing the 2008 election.  He's a dangerous extremist and also a lying liar who tells lies.  Unfortunately, I don't see who would run again.

Re-defeat Franken 2014!!!
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Franzl
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« Reply #31 on: December 30, 2012, 02:27:44 PM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
I don't believe Franken necessarily be (re-)defeated in 2014, but if any strong Republicans step up to the challenge I would love to see him lose as revenge for stealing the 2008 election.  He's a dangerous extremist and also a lying liar who tells lies.  Unfortunately, I don't see who would run again.

Re-defeat Franken 2014!!!

And you claim to value facts?
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #32 on: December 30, 2012, 08:06:59 PM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
I don't believe Franken necessarily be (re-)defeated in 2014, but if any strong Republicans step up to the challenge I would love to see him lose as revenge for stealing the 2008 election.  He's a dangerous extremist and also a lying liar who tells lies.  Unfortunately, I don't see who would run again.

Re-defeat Franken 2014!!!
And you claim to value facts?
Those are the facts, my friend.  There have been several trials involving convicted felons who voted in that election.  Considering that felons overwhelmingly vote Democrat and that Franken "won" by only 312 votes (especially after losing the first count by over 700), it seems pretty likely that he stole that election.  But can we please get back to Illinoos?
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Zioneer
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« Reply #33 on: December 31, 2012, 02:01:29 AM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
I don't believe Franken necessarily be (re-)defeated in 2014, but if any strong Republicans step up to the challenge I would love to see him lose as revenge for stealing the 2008 election.  He's a dangerous extremist and also a lying liar who tells lies.  Unfortunately, I don't see who would run again.

Re-defeat Franken 2014!!!
And you claim to value facts?
Those are the facts, my friend.  There have been several trials involving convicted felons who voted in that election.  Considering that felons overwhelmingly vote Democrat and that Franken "won" by only 312 votes (especially after losing the first count by over 700), it seems pretty likely that he stole that election.  But can we please get back to Illinoos?

What ridiculous rumormongering you engage in.
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Franzl
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« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2012, 08:04:20 AM »

The GOP as far as I'm concerned is as good as dead in IL.  They will lose the Statehouse yet again.  Kirk is one of the last decent "brand names" they have there.
And what evidence do you have to back that up?  Quinn is one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  If Rutherford could win statewide in 2010 even as Quinn was just barely holding on, then I don't see why he couldn't win in 2014, especially since President Obama got reelected.  As Vosem has said, Illinois may be Safe D in presidential elections, but Republicans can still be competitive at the state leve.  I don't think Schock will run either.  He's still young, so he has plenty of time to run for governor in 2018 or later if he wants to be governor.  The only polling on this race I've seen has been from PPP, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  Personally, I want to see what nonpartisan polling looks like as the election gets closer.  But this is one 2014 race where I am salivating at the chance of a GOP pickup, so any candidate who the polls suggest is electable is good with me (let's hope that it's Rutherford!).

This coming from the guy who believes Al Franken will lose in 2014.
I don't believe Franken necessarily be (re-)defeated in 2014, but if any strong Republicans step up to the challenge I would love to see him lose as revenge for stealing the 2008 election.  He's a dangerous extremist and also a lying liar who tells lies.  Unfortunately, I don't see who would run again.

Re-defeat Franken 2014!!!
And you claim to value facts?
Those are the facts, my friend.  There have been several trials involving convicted felons who voted in that election.  Considering that felons overwhelmingly vote Democrat and that Franken "won" by only 312 votes (especially after losing the first count by over 700), it seems pretty likely that he stole that election.  But can we please get back to Illinoos?

By all means, if living in a fantasy world helps you sleep at night, go for it.
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muon2
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« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2012, 08:37:09 AM »

How would the primary calculus change if Schock ran? Apparently he's had some initial meetings with the RGA already. A bit hard because he'd have to vacate his House seat (IL doesn't have LBJ laws, amirite?), depending on when the filing deadlines are for each race.

Illinois has the earliest primary for statewide offices in the nation (it is in February of election year, long before most state filing deadlines), and I believe it has the earliest filing deadline as well. The only states where you don't have to not seek reelection to the House to run for Governor are MS, LA, KY, VA, and NJ, for obvious reasons. (In certain states which are very far removed from DC, it is common to outright resign before your retirement to focus on the campaign -- Abercrombie and Heftel both did this in Hawaii, and it may be a legal requirement in Arizona, I can't recall, and some people just do this anyway, like Deal did in Georgia).

How hard would the calculus change? The more conservative candidates there are, the better Dillard's chances become.

After the debacle of the 2010 primary IL has returned to a primary on the first Tue of Mar. That's still one of the earliest in the nation, however. Candidates will file petitions in November of 2013 for the 2014 election.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2012, 01:47:40 PM »

By all means, if living in a fantasy world helps you sleep at night, go for it.
What ridiculous rumormongering you engage in.
Actually, it's not a rumor:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518904575365063352229680.html

And before you howl that it's a conspiracy theory, there was an actual study that showed that the number of convicted felons who voted in Dem-leaning Hennepin and Ramsey counties alone exceeded Franken's margin of "victory".  Since convicted felons tend to overwhelmingly support Democrats and, those two counties are strongly Democrat-leaning, it would seem that the chances that Franken "won" on those alone would be pretty high.
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Franzl
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« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2012, 04:09:25 PM »

The unanimous MM Supreme Court ruling (including Yankee Republicans!!) is that Franken was the correct winner.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2012, 05:17:51 PM »

The unanimous MM Supreme Court ruling (including Yankee Republicans!!) is that Franken was the correct winner.
Yeah, but that was including the convicted felon vote.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2012, 07:34:16 PM »

The only Republicans that would even get within ten percent of Franken at this point is Coleman and Pawlenty, and Pawlenty is busy getting money, and I think Coleman is tired of politics and Minnesota is tired of Coleman.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2012, 08:07:57 PM »

The unanimous MM Supreme Court ruling (including Yankee Republicans!!) is that Franken was the correct winner.
Yeah, but that was including the convicted felon vote.

You do realize that under Minnesota law, convicted felons who have reformed themselves (gone through incarceration, parole, and probation) regain the right to vote?

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2013, 10:49:25 AM »

Daley is doing some polling, but he's toyed with this before only to back away.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/01/09/bill-daley-polling-chances-in-illinois-governors-race/?wprss=rss_election-2012
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Zioneer
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« Reply #42 on: January 09, 2013, 12:02:30 PM »

By all means, if living in a fantasy world helps you sleep at night, go for it.
What ridiculous rumormongering you engage in.
Actually, it's not a rumor:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518904575365063352229680.html

And before you howl that it's a conspiracy theory, there was an actual study that showed that the number of convicted felons who voted in Dem-leaning Hennepin and Ramsey counties alone exceeded Franken's margin of "victory".  Since convicted felons tend to overwhelmingly support Democrats and, those two counties are strongly Democrat-leaning, it would seem that the chances that Franken "won" on those alone would be pretty high.


Did you see what Nagas said, that convicted felons that have reformed themselves regain the right to vote in Minnesota?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #43 on: January 09, 2013, 03:13:22 PM »

PPP has Rutherford and Dillard narrowly leading Daley, Schock trailing by 5. There are also some other Pub state senators mentioned on Wiki, plus Chris Kennedy on the Dem side. In a 2-way primary Daley narrowly leads Quinn 37-34. What surprises me in that one is the # of undecideds: an incumbent governor and a Daley with nearly 20% undecided.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #44 on: January 09, 2013, 04:08:40 PM »

Bill Daley backed away due to his brother being mayor.  With the James R Thompson Center turning into a casino and the Drivers license for immigrants it can very well let Quinn off the hook in the primary though.
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