For the GOP a simplified path to the White House in 2024?

[Blackacre]

What's been happening is twofold: One, blue states are losing seats/EVs to red states. Two, GOP states are becoming swing states and swing states are becoming Democratic states. CA had swing state status until 1992. Illinois too. It was a swing state and now it's firmly in the Democratic column. Florida went fron trending Republican by 4 points compared to the national average in 2008 to less than 2 points now. Virginia went from solid GOP to solid purple.

Shifting populations make it easier for Republicans to win by winning fewer states, but those states in turn become easier for Democrats to win. Bottom line: same people, different places.

[Blackacre]

Considering we're at the very beginning of an apportionment cycle, the fact that Democrats would already win under 2020 numbers is excellent news. Until reapportionment occurs, State trends are likely to only keep extending the Dems' advantage.

This.