Australia 1993: Keating v. Reith
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  Australia 1993: Keating v. Reith
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Author Topic: Australia 1993: Keating v. Reith  (Read 972 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: December 21, 2012, 03:53:01 PM »

Let's say that Hewson realizes that he's too inexperienced for the job and Reith gets the job instead.

1) Fightback or not? The idea was Hewson's but one of Reith's leadership planks was a broad-based indirect tax- i.e. a GST. On the flip side Reith is a much better communicator, which makes it easier to counter Keating's demagogic brilliance.

2) Campaign strategy: Hewson ran on Fightback and ignored Keating's crap economy. I doubt Reith makes that mistake. "It's a million unemployed, stupid!"

3) Leadership: I expect that as per RL Keating will try a leadership duel- but it depends on where the spotlight finally lands. On his plans or the Coalition's? Unlike Hewson Reith won't crumble under pressure, but if the GST becomes front and centre then the Coalition has to point out that Keating himself supported one back in '85. RRT is absolutely critical.

In the end I expect the winner to have no more than 80 seats. Thoughts?
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2012, 01:05:46 AM »

It's a tough call, but the actual result was heading towards a Liberal win, and Labor pulled it off only after the cake interview... I suspect Reith would therefore have pulled it off.
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Knives
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2012, 01:23:39 AM »

Ew, just ew.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2012, 09:21:41 AM »

It's a tough call, but the actual result was heading towards a Liberal win, and Labor pulled it off only after the cake interview... I suspect Reith would therefore have pulled it off.

I'd go with a Liberal win, especially as RogueBeaver mentioned, Reith was a better communicator than Hewson, and would have made the sluggish economy an issue.

As to how long the Reith government would have lasted, I could see it lasting 3 or 4 terms.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2012, 12:42:07 PM »

IMO this would make a great TL.

Question: What does a Reith government look like? I assume Peacock back at Foreign Affairs, Hewson at Treasury, Howard at Industrial Relations, perhaps Costello as AG?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2012, 08:01:17 PM »

Who would be Reith's Deputy PM.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2012, 08:13:45 PM »

Tim Fischer. If you mean the de facto (Liberal) Deep... dunno. Either Peacock or Howard I'd guess. Ideally Howard rather than Hewson would be at Treasury but that probably isn't in the cards.

Does Keating resign from the ALP leadership? He loses narrowly but this opponent won't self-nuke like Hewson would've. Plus the ALP doesn't have anyone remotely his equal.

Meanwhile Reith's negotiating savvy and genial personality will enable him to work effectively with the Democrats in putting Coalition legislation through the Senate, since the Coalition had 36 Senate seats IRL after 1993 and probably wouldn't have 39 de jure here. Maybe 37 or 38.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2012, 03:17:10 AM »

Ha! Yes, sorry, I meant Deputy Liberal Leader.

Liberal partyroom rules are that deputy leader gets to pick their own portfolio, if I remember correctly, so chances are, Deputy Leader would probably take Treasurer.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2012, 10:08:37 AM »

So is Reith's deputy? Hewson's too junior for the post so it would have to be Peacock or Howard.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2012, 08:53:05 AM »

So is Reith's deputy? Hewson's too junior for the post so it would have to be Peacock or Howard.

What about Alexander Downer? He would have been a good deputy, especially as he was relatively young, yet more experienced than Hewson. If not Deputy Leader, then he would have made a good Cabinet minister, particularly Foreign Minister, like he was IRL.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2012, 06:55:10 PM »

Downer is also non-Victorian, which would be a factor, given that Reith is.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2012, 07:24:19 PM »

Downer might be a compromise pick since neither Howard nor Peacock (unless Peacock retires earlier, which he might) would want the other as deputy. If Peacock retired before '93 then it'd probably be Howard since by that point he'd accept that his shot at leadership was over. As for legislative priorities, I assume it looks a lot like Howard's first term- GST, WRA '96 or an analogue, balanced budget. Maybe another look at lower income tax rates, something Howard never really touched IRL. Plus no One Nation or ministerial code means the major banana peels from RL won't be there.
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