House Districts where the General Election matters

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

When people ask me about the woes of the GOP and how the party can get progressively more extreme, I often point out a simple fact -- in most parts of the country, the general election does not matter anymore.  If you can win a plurality of the vote in a GOP primary, you're elected no matter how radical you are.

I wish we had a map that estimates how small a share of the vote one would need in order to get elected in a particular Congressional district --

For example -
If you have a district where the GOP average is 60% the 100% of general election voters
The primary election has 40% of the turnout of the general (40% of general election voters)
60% of primary voters vote GOP (24% of general election voters)
Extreme Candidate gets 55% of the GOP primary (13% of general election voters)

Then all you need is a hardcore 10-15% of the voting electorate to win.

Here is a map of Congressional districts where noncompetitive districts are grayed out - as these voters basically have no choice who their Representative is in the general election.

As this map is probably deeply flawed, please feel free to add your corrections

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If you are going to count SC-7 as competitive, then you should count SC-1 and SC-5 as well, especially for the upcoming special in SC-1.  All three are Strong R seats that a Democrat might be able to win if they be open seats, but no real chance if there are incumbents defending the seats for the Republicans.  SC-2, 3, and 4 are all Safe R and SC-6 is Safe D.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bob Gibbs would definitely be vulnerable against the right type of Democrat (a conservative from Holmes County who is very much a rural candidate isn't an ideal fit OH-7).  VA-4 could be competitive in a Presidential year if the Democrats actually ran a strong candidate for a change.  NC-9 could well be competitive by the end of the decade.  AR-2 could be competitive with a strong Democrat, especially as an open seat.  IN-8 is a competitive district, but Crooks proved to be a disappointing candidate (maybe John Gregg or Weinzapfel could run?).  CA-16 and CA-21 are potentially competitive districts, but weren't in 2012 b/c of recruiting failures.  CA-7 and definitely CA-31 are competitive districts.  NV-3 should be competitive throughout the decade, Oceguera turned out to be a pretty weak candidate.

Seats that could be competitive as open seats: NC-3 (tough, but possible with the right candidate), OH-10 (if SC-7 is on here), FL-27, MN-3, WA-8, KS-3, and maybe NM-1.

Miscellaneous: I don't think MD-6, MN-8, OR-5, and AK at-large are competitive districts, tbh.  Also, IA-2 is a Dem seat and MN-2 is a Republican one, btw.

Just my thoughts, excellent idea though

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

don appears to be basing this off of the last results for the incumbent, a quite flawed model. MN-03 for example most certainly wouldn't elect someone like Bachmann. Meanwhile MN-06 is an arguable example since being a Republican is the only reason they vote for Bachmann.

[Donerail]

FL-13 should be grayed out. It's not competitive under any circumstances except in the hypothetical scenario where Bill Young dies.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-13 should be grayed out. It's not competitive under any circumstances except in the hypothetical scenario where Bill Young dies.

So in other words who is nominated is important.

[Donerail]

FL-13 should be grayed out. It's not competitive under any circumstances except in the hypothetical scenario where Bill Young dies.

So in other words who is nominated is important.

In other words, the GE doesn't matter.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

The Republicans could very well be reduced to just two seats(Smith and Freulyingson) if the commission tiebreaker picks the Dem map for 2022.  Democrats would almost certainly unpack NJ-12, NJ-01, and NJ-09, which would probably spell the end for Garrett and Runyan and would leave Lance with a real fight every two years if he is still around. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

The Republicans could very well be reduced to just two seats(Smith and Freulyingson) if the commission tiebreaker picks the Dem map for 2022.  Democrats would almost certainly unpack NJ-12, NJ-01, and NJ-09, which would probably spell the end for Garrett and Runyan and would leave Lance with a real fight every two years if he is still around. 

Ultimately, the difference between the commission choosing the Republican map or the Democratic map is one seat. Both parties have to create a map that an independent will approve, so they generally don't get too aggressive.

[freepcrusher]

Garrett is sort of a paulite and I doubt he's liked by the NJ GOP establishment anyways.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Why is that big district in NoCA red?  And that one in Iowa?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Why is that big district in NoCA red?  And that one in Iowa?

And MN-2 shouldn't be blue.

[nclib]

Far-right GOPers getting elected in safe GOP districts could still sour the mood on the national party, and Dems pick up some seats they wouldn't have otherwise.

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

NJ-07 will probably stay Republican as long as it includes most all of Hunterdon and doesnt include the most Democratic areas of Middlesex and Union. 

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

The Republicans could very well be reduced to just two seats(Smith and Freulyingson) if the commission tiebreaker picks the Dem map for 2022.  Democrats would almost certainly unpack NJ-12, NJ-01, and NJ-09, which would probably spell the end for Garrett and Runyan and would leave Lance with a real fight every two years if he is still around. 

Ultimately, the difference between the commission choosing the Republican map or the Democratic map is one seat. Both parties have to create a map that an independent will approve, so they generally don't get too aggressive.

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07. 

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

[Sbane]

Why is that big district in NoCA red? 

That is Garamendi's district and it contains most of Solano and all of Yolo counties in addition to republican rural areas. It is a dem leaning seat, but winnable for republicans.

[Talleyrand]

I'd include Nebraska's 2nd district on here. Lee Terry barely squeaked out a 51-49 win there this year, underperforming Romney, in a race that went completely under the radar and featured an underfunded challenger. I think it'll flip by the end of this decade.

[morgieb]

I'd include Nebraska's 2nd district on here. Lee Terry barely squeaked out a 51-49 win there this year, underperforming Romney, in a race that went completely under the radar and featured an underfunded challenger. I think it'll flip by the end of this decade.

It is there...

[Mr.Phips]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07. 

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

The 2001 version of NJ-07 was still fairly Republicanly gerrymandered.  It took in most of Hunterdon and the least Democratic parts of Somerset, Union, and Middlesex in order to make NJ-12 safe for Holt.  

Stender would have beaten Ferguson in 2006 with breathing room under the 1991 NJ-07 and would have even beaten Lance there in 2008 too.  A district like the 1991-2001 version of NJ-07 would give Lance a really tough fight every two years and he probably lose in the first Demo year there.  He'd be near safe in the 2001-2011 version of NJ-07 and totally safe in the current version of NJ-07.  The 1991-2001 version would be a completely different story.  

[Mr.Phips]

If youre including NV-04, you definately need to include NV-03. 

[traininthedistance]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07.  

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

I think the Republican district that should get most blown up in an even-handed map is actually Runyan's.  Burlington and Ocean should be anchoring two separate districts, as they are separated by:

* the Pinelands (the built-up areas of both counties are near the water)
* metro areas (Burlington and Mercer are part of the Philly metro, Ocean is in the NYC metro)
* political makeup (Burlington is D, Ocean is R).

A non-gerrymandered map all but requires that the bulk of Burlington and Mercer form NJ-3, and the fact that this would throw Runyan, Smith, *and* Holt together (and leave a nice, empty, logical Middlesex district in its wake) be damned.

This map, which I posted a very long time ago, remains what I firmly believe to be the sanest possible NJ configuration.  Lance, Smith, Holt, Pallone, and Runyan would all have reason to be upset with it.  (Holt and whichever of Smith/Runyan was willing to move to Ocean County would be bothered the least, of course.)

Okay, I suppose Lance would have an excellent chance of beating Garrett in the primary, come to think of it.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think we're missing my overall point here -- I'm trying to explain that the vast majority of Americans live in districts where their general election vote might as well be for Mickey Mouse because their Congressman has already been elected in a primary.

Far-right GOPers getting elected in safe GOP districts could still sour the mood on the national party, and Dems pick up some seats they wouldn't have otherwise.

How well has that worked out so far?

(It does work in statewide races, but our states are gerrymandered for 19th century politics rather than today's polarization.)