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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #375 on: October 17, 2014, 06:36:30 AM »
« edited: October 17, 2014, 06:38:39 AM by The Lord Marbury »

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=5994005

Considering that Åkesson has been such an integral part of the party's success it'll be interesting to see how this situation develops and if Åkesson will be able to return to the job or if he'll eventually have to step down. The party certainly doesn't have anyone remotely able to fill his shoes and a hypotheical departure from Åkesson could lead to a drop in the polls.

But in the immediate future you have the party leader's debate held by SVT following the presentation of the budget and shadow budgets which will be held in about month or so, and I wonder what the Sweden Democrats will do if Åkesson is still out of commission by then. Do they simply not participate in the debate or do they send someone in Åkesson's place, and if so who would that be?
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dead0man
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« Reply #376 on: October 19, 2014, 01:08:35 PM »

Have you caught the Russian sub yet?
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #377 on: October 19, 2014, 06:18:12 PM »

Have you caught the Russian sub yet?

Doesn't look like it and my guess is we probably won't catch it either. Sweden's submarine hunting capabilites have been greatly reduced in the past two decades due to the cuts in military spending under both leftwing and rightwing governments, we don't even have any helicopters capable of submarine hunting and won't have until 2018. And even back in the 80s when the Swedish military was in top shape they pretty much always got away so the track record isn't good with this type of thing...
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dead0man
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« Reply #378 on: October 19, 2014, 06:22:52 PM »

How do you feel about joining NATO?  Does this kind of thing push you closer?
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #379 on: October 19, 2014, 06:34:26 PM »

How do you feel about joining NATO?  Does this kind of thing push you closer?

Personally I'm against it, I'm fine with the situation we're in now and being in the EU doesn't exactly mean we'd be without assistance in the unlikely case of an attack.

According to polls a majority of Swedes are also against joining NATO and they will likely still be so after this event.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #380 on: October 29, 2014, 04:37:41 PM »

How do you feel about joining NATO?  Does this kind of thing push you closer?

According to polls a majority of Swedes are also against joining NATO and they will likely still be so after this event.

First poll on the subject is out (Novus) and it appears to be a complete tie.

Should Sweden join NATO?

37%     YES
36%     NO
27%     DON'T KNOW

So the events did have quite a significant effect on polls. First time support for NATO-membership is leading in a NOVUS poll.


NATO here we come!!! Wink

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ingemann
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« Reply #381 on: October 29, 2014, 05:53:59 PM »

Honestly I as a Dane would love to see especially Sweden, but also Finland join NATO, simply because increased military cooperation (mostly in infrastructure) between the Nordic countries would enable us to get more bang for the buck. Also it would also make Denmark and Norway more likely to buy Swedish military products.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #382 on: October 30, 2014, 06:30:55 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 06:47:22 AM by The Lord Marbury »

http://www.thelocal.se/20141030/sweden-recognizes-state-of-palestine

So there it is, Sweden has now officially recognized the State of Palestine, and not a moment too soon in my opinion. There has of course been a fair bit of criticism from the right, even from the Centre Party which according to it's programme is in favor of such a move. Although the criticism has mostly been about how the government announced that it had the ambition of recognizing Palestine in its policy declaration, prior to meeting with the Foreign Affairs Committee.

The constitution says that any major foreign policy move by the government must be done in consultation with the committee, however if the move is actually unconstitutional is a bit doubtful conidering that the government only announced its ambition to recognize Palestine since the entire policy decleration is just a bunch of ambitions. And some journalists and commentators have pointed out that similar things have happened during the previous government in 2008 when then-Foreign Minister Bildt came out in favor of recognizing Kosovo prior to meeting with the committee. Though I can't remember if the opposition made such a big thing of it back then.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #383 on: October 30, 2014, 10:49:06 AM »

It surely would strike as weird timing if Sweden joins the NATO right after having recognized Palestine. Tongue
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #384 on: October 30, 2014, 11:38:40 AM »

It surely would strike as weird timing if Sweden joins the NATO right after having recognized Palestine. Tongue

Oh it definitely would. Wink But luckily (IMO) Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist (S) said to the press today that a NATO membership or a committee discussing NATO membership will not be happening.
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swl
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« Reply #385 on: October 30, 2014, 12:45:38 PM »

When I read Lieberman reaction ("lol Ikea") I honestly wondered if he is the foreign affairs minister of a developed country, or a teen expressing his frustration on Twitter.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #386 on: October 30, 2014, 01:25:54 PM »

Lieberman is a professional troll who owes his current horrifyingly over-promoted status to ethnic block voting.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #387 on: November 03, 2014, 07:15:52 PM »

Current approval numbers for the party leaders:

Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) - 58%
Stefan Löfvén (S) - 45%
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - 36%
Annie Lööf (C) - 33%
Jan Björklund (FP) - 28%
Göran Hägglund (KD) -28%
Jonas Sjöstedt (V) - 24%
Åsa Romson (MP) - 22%
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) - 17%

(Ipsos)

I'm incredibly pleased with this on so many levels.
Too bad Ipsos is a crap pollster though.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #388 on: November 22, 2014, 01:10:33 AM »

Have you caught the Russian sub yet?

Doesn't look like it and my guess is we probably won't catch it either. Sweden's submarine hunting capabilites have been greatly reduced in the past two decades due to the cuts in military spending under both leftwing and rightwing governments, we don't even have any helicopters capable of submarine hunting and won't have until 2018. And even back in the 80s when the Swedish military was in top shape they pretty much always got away so the track record isn't good with this type of thing...

I came across this photo enhancement that shows that the Swedes were right about Russians in their waters:
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Gustaf
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« Reply #389 on: November 26, 2014, 11:21:34 AM »

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted. Tongue
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #390 on: November 26, 2014, 12:05:50 PM »

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted. Tongue

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #391 on: November 28, 2014, 10:33:18 AM »

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted. Tongue

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.

Shameful isn't it? It's not as if the Social Democrats would ever obstruct in opposition, especially not when it's politically expedient...
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #392 on: November 29, 2014, 02:29:31 AM »

Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted. Tongue

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.

Shameful isn't it? It's not as if the Social Democrats would ever obstruct in opposition, especially not when it's politically expedient...

Oh please of course I know the Social Democrats have obstructed things now and then in the previous term, although considering the Alliance government wasn't much interested in negotiating with the opposition then either so what other options were there? Wink

However some of the Alliance's recent tactics just seem downright childish at recent times, such as leaving the pensions group because Green members were present which seems especially inconsistent considering the Moderate representative in the group spoke favourably of the Greens pensions policies in June. But yeah, I suppose it's all just a tactic to try and portray the government as weak and send a signal to Löfven that the smaller centre-right parties aren't in any way interested at talking with him outside the framework of the Alliance. And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #393 on: November 30, 2014, 01:36:06 PM »

And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.

It's not the opposition's responsibility to pass the government's budget for it. We don't want your budget, so why should we help you pass it? The Social Democrats didn't abstain in budget votes during the last term, to help political stability. If you want the Alliance to pass your budget for you, you will have to negotiate with us (all four of us) and make a necessary compromise where we also get through large portions of our policies. That is how politics work.     

(It isn't our fault that you could only convince 43,6% of the voters to vote for you.)

If Löfvén does choose to negotiate with all four of us, instead of one party that he hopes he might get into submission, I would presume there could be a compromise proposal. If he instead chooses to resign I would presume we're headed for an early election next year. 

Anyway, this is all hypothetical as the budget proposal will be sent back to committee, and not be put up for a vote, if SD announces that they intend to vote for the counter proposal.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #394 on: November 30, 2014, 05:39:17 PM »

And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.

It's not the opposition's responsibility to pass the government's budget for it. We don't want your budget, so why should we help you pass it? The Social Democrats didn't abstain in budget votes during the last term, to help political stability. If you want the Alliance to pass your budget for you, you will have to negotiate with us (all four of us) and make a necessary compromise where we also get through large portions of our policies. That is how politics work.     

(It isn't our fault that you could only convince 43,6% of the voters to vote for you.)

If Löfvén does choose to negotiate with all four of us, instead of one party that he hopes he might get into submission, I would presume there could be a compromise proposal. If he instead chooses to resign I would presume we're headed for an early election next year. 

Anyway, this is all hypothetical as the budget proposal will be sent back to committee, and not be put up for a vote, if SD announces that they intend to vote for the counter proposal.


Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #395 on: November 30, 2014, 07:49:35 PM »

Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.

The Alliance has not discussed what they will do in the hypothetical scenario of their budget passing for very good and very obvious reasons. First, it is a very hypothetical scenario. SD likes to make noises to get attention, but during their four years in parliament they've never been willing to pull the trigger when it really came down to it. Secondly, if they do pull the trigger, it is the government that must act first, and as far as I know the government hasn't really announced what they'll do either. The only thing your side has said is that they will not govern on the oppositions budget (which is like saying the sky is blue) and now that they intend to send the budget back to committee. Which, as you yourself acknowledge is a very recent development. Until we know how you will react, we can't plan how we will react.

As for negotiations, that is my own theory based on small bits of info that I'm hearing from my parliamentary inside sources, that if SD does announce their intention to vote for us we will be willing to negotiate a deal, but you'll have to negotiate with all of us, not just one of your choosing, and you will have to make some major concessions and not just give us some symbolic crumbles. If the government is unwilling to do that, all bets are off.


I do believe you're a bit hyberbolic now. Lööf, Björklund, and Hägglund have all said that they will support individual legislation presented by the government if it aligns with their party's position. Björklund even specifically mentioned the third daddy month as such an issue. As for the particular case of Vårdnadsbidraget, that is a subsidy and thus part of the budget, and as the four parties have agreed to file a budget together based on the deals that were negotiated before the election, we will have to defend it as part of the budget package.

And even if the parties actually had the intention to only work as a united group in parliament for the coming four years, political parties are more than just the parliamentary party. As you know all four of the Alliance parties are involved in different sorts of coalitions and cooperation on the regional and local level, not to mention the European Parliament. So the idea that they are now so interchangeable that we should merge is of course a simplistic opinion.       
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Lurker
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« Reply #396 on: December 02, 2014, 11:15:09 AM »

So, now that SD has supported the budget proposal of the Alliance, I guess we'll have a new Parliamentary Election in Sweden, in a couple of months?

That government certainly didn't last long.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #397 on: December 02, 2014, 11:32:56 AM »

Well let the chaos begin, I guess.

Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.

The Alliance has not discussed what they will do in the hypothetical scenario of their budget passing for very good and very obvious reasons. First, it is a very hypothetical scenario. SD likes to make noises to get attention, but during their four years in parliament they've never been willing to pull the trigger when it really came down to it. Secondly, if they do pull the trigger, it is the government that must act first, and as far as I know the government hasn't really announced what they'll do either. The only thing your side has said is that they will not govern on the oppositions budget (which is like saying the sky is blue) and now that they intend to send the budget back to committee. Which, as you yourself acknowledge is a very recent development. Until we know how you will react, we can't plan how we will react.

As for negotiations, that is my own theory based on small bits of info that I'm hearing from my parliamentary inside sources, that if SD does announce their intention to vote for us we will be willing to negotiate a deal, but you'll have to negotiate with all of us, not just one of your choosing, and you will have to make some major concessions and not just give us some symbolic crumbles. If the government is unwilling to do that, all bets are off.


I do believe you're a bit hyberbolic now. Lööf, Björklund, and Hägglund have all said that they will support individual legislation presented by the government if it aligns with their party's position. Björklund even specifically mentioned the third daddy month as such an issue. As for the particular case of Vårdnadsbidraget, that is a subsidy and thus part of the budget, and as the four parties have agreed to file a budget together based on the deals that were negotiated before the election, we will have to defend it as part of the budget package.

And even if the parties actually had the intention to only work as a united group in parliament for the coming four years, political parties are more than just the parliamentary party. As you know all four of the Alliance parties are involved in different sorts of coalitions and cooperation on the regional and local level, not to mention the European Parliament. So the idea that they are now so interchangeable that we should merge is of course a simplistic opinion.       

Stefan Löfven has repeatedly said that he will not administer an Alliance budget and that he will either seek to negotiate with Alliance parties and if that proves fruitless he will resign. He said as much in an interview about 1-2 weeks ago.

There's a difference between defending it as part of your joint budget package and actively working to remove if from the government's budget while in committee.
http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/lofven-blir-overkord-om-vardnadsbidraget/

Well then they might as well run on a joint list for national elections, and frankly I find them largely interchangeable on the national level. Just by judging the vårdnadsbidraget example there doesn't seem to be an interest from the parties in supporting government legislation when it impacts a core issue of other Alliance parties. The feminism part of FPs election slogan apparently doesn't seem to matter too much when it means a prestige loss for KD, for example.

And of course there will be concessions from the government in negotiations with the Alliance, just like there will need to be concessions from the Alliance because S & MP can't be expected to give up too many of their election promises and continue to govern with centre-right policies. Otherwise I guess we'll either have to see a new Alliance minority again despite their massive losses in the past election since they have the support of SD and the government doesn't, or we'll just have new election. None of the parties beside SD definitely don't want a new election, M definitely doesn't right now, but if Löfven finds the Alliance's demands too unreasonable he may not see a better way out.
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Diouf
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« Reply #398 on: December 02, 2014, 11:42:33 AM »

Democratically I think it's great that this means that the government can't pass a budget just with a plurality because the opposition parties disagree with them in different ways. Especially in an important area like the budget I think there should be a simple majority for it to be passed.

I guess the government will now try to lure one of the Alliance party away from the block, but that might be difficult. Which party would generally be closest to the government economically? KD?
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politicus
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« Reply #399 on: December 02, 2014, 11:57:34 AM »

Democratically I think it's great that this means that the government can't pass a budget just with a plurality because the opposition parties disagree with them in different ways. Especially in an important area like the budget I think there should be a simple majority for it to be passed.

I guess the government will now try to lure one of the Alliance party away from the block, but that might be difficult. Which party would generally be closest to the government economically? KD?

KD is right wing.
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