The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Diouf]

New Sentio poll for Nyheter i dag

Social Democrats 24.1%
Sweden Democrats 23.3%
Moderates 20.8%
Centre Party 6.7%
Greens 6.4%
Left Party 6.4%
Liberals 4.4%
Christian Democrats 3.1%

The highest the Sweden Democrats have ever polled, and the first time they are among the top two parties.
Left wing parties have 36.9% while the Alliance parties have 35%, including the Christian Democrats which are below the treshold.

[politicus]

New Sentio poll for Nyheter i dag

Social Democrats 24.1%
Sweden Democrats 23.3%
Moderates 20.8%

The top three basically looks like a Danish poll (even with SD higher than DPP usually is) with the Moderates as Venstre.

[The Lord Marbury]

Though SD is certainly growing at the moment, no doubt about that, those numbers should be taken with a significant pinch of salt as Nyheter idag is not a serious news site. It was actually founded by Sweden Democrat MP Kent Ekeroth and is run by people associated with other far-right online publications/blogs like Avpixlat.

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies (the same with YouGov). While they're definitely bigger now, I doubt they're at these kinds of numbers. Other polls generally have them at around 17% or so.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies

Other polling companies has constantly underestimated SD, so I wouldn't trust other polling companies.

[Helsinkian]

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies (the same with YouGov). While they're definitely bigger now, I doubt they're at these kinds of numbers. Other polls generally have them at around 17% or so.

Well, before the election the other pollsters had SD around 8-11 percent. Sentio's last poll before the election had them at 12.7%, which was pretty much what they got in the election (12.9%).

[The Lord Marbury]

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies

Other polling companies has constantly underestimated SD, so I wouldn't trust other polling companies.

That is certainly true, though I don't think they're underestimating SD to the degree show here.

Sentio, who only base their polls on web panels, are also known for constantly showing the Sweden Democrats with significantly higher numbers than other polling companies (the same with YouGov). While they're definitely bigger now, I doubt they're at these kinds of numbers. Other polls generally have them at around 17% or so.

Well, before the election the other pollsters had SD around 8-11 percent. Sentio's last poll before the election had them at 12.7%, which was pretty much what they got in the election (12.9%).

Yep that is correct, though I'm not sure if it's Sentio discovering trends not seen by other companies or more like they got it right by a fluke and a last month surge brought SD up to numbers similar to what Sentio had shown SD at for nearly six months at that point.

[politicus]

Have the Swedish pollsters said anything about why they under pollled SD?

Here Gallup has just said they failed to include certain parameters and as the reason why they under polled DPP, but kept quiet as to what those "parameters" may be. Are Swedish pollsters equally wussy?

[The Lord Marbury]

Has the Swedish pollsters said anything about why they under pollled SD?

Here Gallup has just said they failed to include certain parameters and as the reason why they under polled DPP, but kept quiet as to what those "parameters" may be. Are Swedish pollsters equally wussy?

I remember some pollster talking about their failure to take into account that some people would be hesitant to say that they supported SD, somewhat similar to the "Shy Tory Factor" talked about in the UK 1992 (and to some extent 2015) elections. Other than that I can't think of anything at the moment.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Has the Swedish pollsters said anything about why they under pollled SD?

Here Gallup has just said they failed to include certain parameters and as the reason why they under polled DPP, but kept quiet as to what those "parameters" may be. Are Swedish pollsters equally wussy?

I remember some pollster talking about their failure to take into account that some people would be hesitant to say that they supported SD, somewhat similar to the "Shy Tory Factor" talked about in the UK 1992 (and to some extent 2015) elections. Other than that I can't think of anything at the moment.

I would very much assume that to be the case. With an inverse Proud Green & Feminist Initiative Factor as well. Before and after the European Union election last year I was part of a web panel for Gothenburg University. The results they published were quite interesting. I think there were three different panels, based on different criteria ranging from trying to match the electorate to self selected. In the self selected one Feminist Initiative were of about the same size as the social democrats! Even when they tried to match the electorate Feminist Initiative were over represented by quite a bit.

[ingemann]

I must admit I really don't get what people see or saw in FI, maybe it's just because while I read Swedish newspapers once in a while, I don't follow the Swedish debate enough. I usual get somewhat what people see in parties, even if I disagre with them, but FI just seemed weird.

[politicus]

I must admit I really don't get what people see or saw in FI, maybe it's just because while I read Swedish newspapers once in a while, I don't follow the Swedish debate enough. I usual get somewhat what people see in parties, even if I disagre with them, but FI just seemed weird.

Well, you got the wrong gender for starters.

If a society promotes gender equality as part of the official ideology to the degree Sweden has done it also raises expectations of full equality and a truly post-patriarchal society - and no countries are there yet, - so you get frustration and a radicalization of some feminists (and queers).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I must admit I really don't get what people see or saw in FI, maybe it's just because while I read Swedish newspapers once in a while, I don't follow the Swedish debate enough. I usual get somewhat what people see in parties, even if I disagre with them, but FI just seemed weird.

Well basically they gather the people of the bohemian culture elite such as artists, writers and musicians and their wannabes as well as other inner-city hipsters who are too sane to be Autonomist Marxists, but who find that the Greens and the Left Party has become too realistic and middle-ground and wants something more ideological. So their appeal is as an ideological, outsider, anti-establishment party on the left that isn't so crazy that they actually wants to kill their opposition. I'd guess it's the same sort of people that would vote for the Alternative in Denmark.   

Of course this only appeals to a rather minor group of people, and they are in the long run unsustainable as a national party. Most of their realistic and doable policies such as affirmative action are already the policies of the Greens and/or the Left Party while their more out-there policies such as all vegan food in schools, man-tax, and abolishing the military has minimal appeal in the general public. Lets not forget that they only mustered a bare 3,1% in support with a large number of tactical voters.

Their entry into the European Parliament was, much like the entry of the Pirate Party in '09, in large parts due to a perfect storm of circumstances working out in their favour; which all began in late 2013 and early 2014 with a series of high profile rape court cases, were the accused rapists were all acquitted on technicalities, which raised old questions about abuse of women and equality.

[politicus]

I must admit I really don't get what people see or saw in FI, maybe it's just because while I read Swedish newspapers once in a while, I don't follow the Swedish debate enough. I usual get somewhat what people see in parties, even if I disagree with them, but FI just seemed weird.

Well basically they gather the people of the bohemian culture elite such as artists, writers and musicians and their wannabes as well as other inner-city hipsters who are too sane to be Autonomist Marxists, but who find that the Greens and the Left Party has become too realistic and middle-ground and wants something more ideological. So their appeal is as an ideological, outsider, anti-establishment party on the left that isn't so crazy that they actually wants to kill their opposition. I'd guess it's the same sort of people that would vote for the Alternative in Denmark.    

There is an overlap, but the Alternative is less of a niche party and has more appeal to idealists among regular folks. One factor is that Elbæk and most of the other front figures are much more mellow and down to earth than the FI leadership.

Furthermore FI completely lacks the Alternatives focus on entrepreneurship - there are no Green engineers in FI. The fact that we have no established Green party also gives the Alternative a broader appeal.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There is an overlap, but the Alternative is less of a niche party and has more appeal to idealists among regular folks. One factor is that Elbæk and most of the other front figures are much more mellow and down to earth than the FI leadership.

Furthermore FI completely lacks the Alternatives focus on entrepreneurship - there are no Green engineers in FI. The fact that we have no established Green party also gives the Alternative a broader appeal.

Of course, and that is why the Alternative is much more likely to future succes, while I believe Fi is doomed to fade. Though I would say that the Alternative is much more like the Greens in the 90's; MP have, similarly to SPP, moved to a more conventional place politically in order to make themselves more realistic as government partners to the Social Democrats and they also have quite a lot of similarities with the modern Radikale. It's partially this move that has opened up a political vacuum that Fi can partially fill.   

[Famous Mortimer]

FI are GreenLeft.

The Alternative is D66.

More in detail, the The Alternative is more or less openly bourgeois people. FI is bourgeois people who are in denial about/self hating for being bourgeois.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

FI are GreenLeft.

The Alternative is D66.

Fi is more like the Party of the Animals, if were doing Dutch comparisons. 

[politicus]

FI are GreenLeft.

The Alternative is D66.

More in detail, the The Alternative is more or less openly bourgeois people. FI is bourgeois people who are in denial about/self hating for being bourgeois.

In Denmark Radikale is D66 and SPP the GreenLeft (there are differences - but after the Workerites left SPP they are minimal). MP in Sweden would also be fairly close to GreenLeft. Both FI and the Alternative are parties with a new mix of elements that are hard to translate directly to other party systems.

[Famous Mortimer]

I would have thought that the Socialist People's Party would line up pretty neatly with the Dutch Socialist Party and the Swedish Left Party. Are you saying that with the Workerites gone they are a more intersectional-y rump?

I would say FI are like GreenLeft because they both flirt with liberal economics and are very intersectional-y.

I would say the Red-Greens are roughly equivalent to the FI and GreenLeft, minus the economics part. I assume they must still be pretty hardcore because of all the Communists.

but yeah, Radicals are D66, that's pretty dead on.

I still say The Alternative is also basically D66, and therefore totally redundant and unnecessary.

[politicus]

Intersectionality (if you mean the "various form of oppression - racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, ableism, xenophobia, classism etc. - are all interconnected"-stuff is not really a big part of Danish left wing discourse - and therefore not a good qualifier for our parties.

(but you may use it differently)

Dutch-Scandi comparison:

SP - Left Party - Red-Greens (with both the Scandi parties lacking the relatively tough integration policies of SP)

LeftGreen - MP - SPP

D66 - nothing really fits, but elements of the Centre Party  - Radikale

FI as the Party of the Animals with radical feminism instead of animal rights is cheeky, but not completely off the mark (although FI isn't Eurosceptic).

The Alternative is much more social justice and full scale environmental transformation than Radikale. They are like the Radical Left of a party named the Radical Left, but moderate heroes on most things. Their education policy with its critique of academization of the educational system and focus on craftmanship and practical training as vital for creating the green transformation is another example of something where they are opposite Radikale. It is by its nature an odd and quirky party which does not have a 1:1 match in other party systems. They may morph into something more traditional along the way, but is still "What if buses were orange?" like (to quote CrabCake). Their claim to be able to "think out of the box" and be, well, Alternative, is the whole basis for the party, so it is not sensible to compare them to something as establishment as the current D66.

[Famous Mortimer]

I was using intersectionalist as a nice way to say Social Justice Warriors. I would lump the Feminist Initiative, Red-Greens, and GreenLeft into that category partially because they are all so weak on integration, as you pointed out. Radical feminism...unless you're a minority, then whatever you want, it's "your culture".

How is the Danish SSP on integration, by the way? I thought they were more akin to the Dutch SP.

[politicus]

How is the Danish SSP on integration, by the way? I thought they were more akin to the Dutch SP.

They were under Villy Søvndal, but less so after the exodus of the Workerites  after that they have softened and returned to something more traditionally leftist (which suits especially the older part of their base - never comfortable with the rhetoric under Søvndal. They are still to the right of MP and LeftGreens on this, but that mostly reflects that the whole Danish debate about these things is more on the tough side. They are relative "softies" now and clearly to the left of our SDs.

[Famous Mortimer]

Back to Sweden, I have a question. I'm sure all of you will say that a coalition with ANY far-right party, even just giving outside support, is impossible in Sweden right now.

Eventually it will happen though, it's going to be hard though because the Swedish Democrats are so much more extreme than the Danish People's Party or the Progress Party, with their neo-Nazi past.

Is there any chance that some of the more moderate, or at least less tainted, people within the SD break out and establish a new party that might be more suitable for a coalition?

[Gunnar Larsson]

Back to Sweden, I have a question. I'm sure all of you will say that a coalition with ANY far-right party, even just giving outside support, is impossible in Sweden right now.

Eventually it will happen though, it's going to be hard though because the Swedish Democrats are so much more extreme than the Danish People's Party or the Progress Party, with their neo-Nazi past.

Is there any chance that some of the more moderate, or at least less tainted, people within the SD break out and establish a new party that might be more suitable for a coalition?

It is hardly a law of nature that there will be cooperation with far right parties...

Anyway, I would say that a far more likely scenario is that the right would like to get back to the situation between 2010 and 2014, i.e. no formal cooperation, but with SD voting with the centre-right parties in 90 % of the important votes due to shared ideas. Of course in the remaining cases they would have to either cooperate with one or more parties on the left or they would lose, but that is likely good enough.

It is not really the case that there is a more moderate fraction that might split the party. It is rather the other way around, i.e. their youth organisation etc. not thinking they are far right enough. (In a similar fashion the party was most likely helped by an earlier split where some of the most far right people formed "Nationaldemokraterna").

[politicus]

Back to Sweden, I have a question. I'm sure all of you will say that a coalition with ANY far-right party, even just giving outside support, is impossible in Sweden right now.

Eventually it will happen though, it's going to be hard though because the Swedish Democrats are so much more extreme than the Danish People's Party or the Progress Party, with their neo-Nazi past.

Is there any chance that some of the more moderate, or at least less tainted, people within the SD break out and establish a new party that might be more suitable for a coalition?

SD is not really to the right of DPP. It is much more a matter of differences in the perception of such parties and the political culture in the two countries in general than ideology. Of course the toxic roots of SD reinforces this difference, but they are not the main reason for it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Back to Sweden, I have a question. I'm sure all of you will say that a coalition with ANY far-right party, even just giving outside support, is impossible in Sweden right now.

Eventually it will happen though, it's going to be hard though because the Swedish Democrats are so much more extreme than the Danish People's Party or the Progress Party, with their neo-Nazi past.

Is there any chance that some of the more moderate, or at least less tainted, people within the SD break out and establish a new party that might be more suitable for a coalition?

SD is not really to the right of DPP. It i much more a matter of differences in perception off such parties and the political culture in the two countries in general than ideology. Of course the toxic roots of SD reinforces this difference, but they are not the main reason for it.

Even with the far right being somewhat normalized in Denmark, I still don't think the Liberals would ever rely on support from a party with neo-Nazi origins the way they rely on the DPP now.