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ingemann
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« Reply #500 on: August 12, 2015, 02:04:56 PM »

I think that DavidB brings some very good point up, if you look at DF/DPP, the move to a more anti-immigration position of the rest of the political spectum did result in DPP growing very slowly compared to anti-immigration parties in other countries, but also in DPP growing more mellow (they even condemned the Conservative use of the term Nazi-Islamismt) and diversifying. Yes they may end up in a government in the next ten years, but they're quite a distinct party from what they were when they started. Of course it have also had the interesting aspect that the other parties and media hae begun to attack them for their specific policies (like how they will finance them), rather than keep screaming about how they're nazi/fascist/racist, all the world's ill are their fault and their voters are horrible people. Attacking a party for having incoherent politic usual work better than attacking their perceived worldview.
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« Reply #501 on: August 12, 2015, 02:26:44 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2015, 03:13:02 PM by Diouf »

In the whole discussion about whether or not to cooperate with the SD, one should also remember the simple reality of majority building. Even if the leaders of the Moderates wanted to try to build a majority with the SD, which would probably be supported by a majority of their voters, then those two parties would still not have a majority. Annie "Unlimited Immigration" Lööf and the Centre Party would certainly not participate in such a majority, and the Liberals would be very likely to reject it as well. There have been some slight rumblings in the Christian Democrats about reducing the numbers of refugees and immigrants, so perhaps they could accept joining the Moderates in a coalition backed by the SD; but the Christian Democrats have a harder and harder time crossing the treshold and even if they just get it, it might very well not be enough for a Moderate-Christian-SD majority.

So for obvious reasons, the left-wing will not cooperate with the SD, and for the Moderates, there isn't really a viable majority with the SD yet. If such a one turns up consistently in the polls, then it would make sense for the Moderates to look towards the SD.
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« Reply #502 on: August 12, 2015, 02:28:42 PM »

Is there any cooperation on the local level, or are the SD's persona non gratae even at the municipal level?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #503 on: August 12, 2015, 03:20:20 PM »

One thing to note though (always a thing to remember when it is so) is that we are miles out from the next election.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #504 on: August 12, 2015, 06:20:01 PM »

In the whole discussion about whether or not to cooperate with the SD, one should also remember the simple reality of majority building. Even if the leaders of the Moderates wanted to try to build a majority with the SD, which would probably be supported by a majority of their voters, then those two parties would still not have a majority. Annie "Unlimited Immigration" Lööf and the Centre Party would certainly not participate in such a majority, and the Liberals would be very likely to reject it as well. There have been some slight rumblings in the Christian Democrats about reducing the numbers of refugees and immigrants, so perhaps they could accept joining the Moderates in a coalition backed by the SD; but the Christian Democrats have a harder and harder time crossing the treshold and even if they just get it, it might very well not be enough for a Moderate-Christian-SD majority.

So for obvious reasons, the left-wing will not cooperate with the SD, and for the Moderates, there isn't really a viable majority with the SD yet. If such a one turns up consistently in the polls, then it would make sense for the Moderates to look towards the SD.
This is a good point, but it only matters in theory, for the simple fact that Reinfeldt has always categorically declined to cooperate with SD - that had nothing to do with majority building and everything with tremendous disagreement on important issues.

Let's also not forget that the "historical" argument "omg SDs used to be nazis" isn't the main reason that blocks government cooperation between Alliansen (or some Alliansen parties) and SD. The problem is simply SD's policy positions on the issues that matter most for them: immigration, integration, islam, and EU. On these issues, Aliansen parties have positions that are miles and miles away from SD, closer to the Red-Green parties, which is exactly the reason why they now opt to cooperate across the aisle. However, as long as the existing paradigm on immigration will prevail, there is little chance for rapprochement (and little reason for SD to change its tone or its positions, since they will undoubtedly keep growing, unless they're led by real dummies, which doesn't seem to be the case to me - see undergroundgate). Swedish parties will learn their lesson the hard way.
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Beezer
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« Reply #505 on: August 13, 2015, 04:01:09 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 04:06:12 AM by Beezer »

Is this a wise strategy? I see two arguments countering each other. I suppose the one people agree with probably depends on their pre-existing views:

"this is a wise strategy. Other countries' parties attempts to emulate right-populist platforms did nothing to stem their rise and instead emboldened them. The SD's will have a natural ceiling  in the population which locks them from power - it's best to not engage with them or legitimise until they fizzle out like, say, Vlaams Belang or the BNP did."

"This is not a wise strategy. Ignoring the populists' demands will enrage them and cause them to grow even more; while giving dissatisfied citizens an untested outlet to express their rage. An unchecked angry group of populists would cause chaos in both a parliamentary context (with SD's wrecking bills) and in an extraparliamentary sense".

That's of course one of the central questions asked by populism scholars across the world regarding the response of the mainstream to these upstarts. As you point out, some argue that moving to the right only gives the right-wing populists more legitimacy...i.e. it signals to potential voters of these parties that it's now ok to cast your ballot for them since their views are far from outlandish. Some scholars have also found that right-wing populists only gain legitimacy if the entire party system shifts rightwards on a topic like immigration. If only the center-right alters its stance while everybody else remains liberal on the topic, right-wing populists fail to be able to capitalize on these moves. I suppose the recent DPP success could - according to this theory - be explained by the fact that the Social Democrats have also hardened their rhetoric on immigration.

Cas Mudde (probably the pre-eminent scholar on the topic) has tried to answer the question by incorporating the matter of "issue ownership" - meaning that if a right-wing populist party is seen as the natural go to choice on a given topic (such as immigration) then center-right parties are fighting a losing battle by moving to the right. All they're doing is politicizing an issue whose increased salience favors the populist right. If a right-wing party is primarily seen as a protest party on the other hand, other parties are able to move in and cut off the oxygen. I suppose the central question in Sweden now is what kind of party the SD are.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #506 on: August 13, 2015, 06:44:51 AM »

Wow, great discussion guys. I think several of you are delving into some of the most crucial questions about the political situation in regards to the Sweden Democrats and how different parties' treatment are affecting popular opinion. As I personally see it, the Sweden Democrats can in large part thank their current strong position to two factors:

The first factor is that there has been no middle-ground in the immigration debate in Sweden since 2010, which is a direct result of the other parties trying to distance themselves from SD as much as possible. Before that both the Moderates and the Social Democrats had a much more nuanced view on immigration, and even the People's Party had a few notable positions, such as demanding passing a Swedish language test in order to gain Swedish citizenship. Leading up to the 2010 election with SD steadily gaining in polls, these parties abandoned all such middle-ground positions  in order distance themselves from the Sweden Democrats. Every policy that could in some way be seen as similar to SD's policy became toxic and was accused of "fishing in dirty water". This was amplified to an even greater extent, when after the election, in order to show how non-dependent the Alliance government was of SD, they passed immigration reform with the Greens that basically copied the Green policy right of the bat, which really killed all middle-ground, as it left us with either the Greens' immigration policy or the Sweden Democrats'.

The second factor is that the media, cultural elite, and the anti-racist SJW have created a "you're either against us, or with us" mentality were anyone who has not agreed 100% with the politically correct view of the day, not just when it comes to immigration but to women's rights, lgbt-rights, and even some extent economic issues, have been denounced as the great other. If you create an atmosphere were you paint the picture that your only choices is between true-left hogwash and the Sweden Democrats, you will inevitably drive people to the other side. Combine this with the fact that these issues seem to be the only ones that matter in political debate in Sweden today. It's almost impossible to discuss any other issue, as both the Sweden Democrats, and the left paint this as the number one most important issue.

The question is how do we break these two factors, and how do we handle SD during the meantime? It's a question with no simple answers. Personally I think that we need to recreate the middle-ground, obviously. First by stopping to pretend that there are no problems with immigration. If you don't see the problems that the voters see, they are not going to trust you. Then we have to present better solutions to those problems. Simply copying a light version of SD's policy won't hold, both because it's morally wrong, but also because if your policy is just a weak copy of your opponent, the voters will prefer the original. Still the two options in Swedish politics can't be completely free immigration, or no immigration. 

I also think it's important to maintain the cordon sanitaire towards them. No matter what you think of their policies, the party is filled with crazy. The leadership is competent and do their best to keep up a clean facade, but you only need to scratch the surface before you start finding people who believe in Jewish conspiracies and what not.

So basically I agree with David: 

I support the view that the Swedish mainstream has made an unwise choice. Given the SD's past, there might have been legitimate concerns about incorporating them into a coalition (at least in 2010), but parties should have addressed people's concerns about immigration. These concerns aren't inherently racist and I think it's legitimate to question the status-quo on this issue, especially when all mainstream parties are taking the extreme position they're taking right now ("let 'em all in").

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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #507 on: August 13, 2015, 06:56:46 AM »

Is there any cooperation on the local level, or are the SD's persona non gratae even at the municipal level?

Do you mean officially or in practice? All the other seven parties forbid their local branches from cooperating with SD, and SD takes part in no official coalition or organised budget cooperation... in practice it's a bit more complex. For example in the southern city of Landskrona, SD could really be seen as the unofficial partner for the Liberal-Moderate-Green minority coalition that runs the city. They've been in power since 2006 and for the entire time relied on SD support to pass their budget and core policies, and mayor Torkil Strandberg has openly admitted that SD has influence on city policy and that he necessarily doesn't see anything wrong with that, and that's just the most obvious example.   
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DavidB.
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« Reply #508 on: August 13, 2015, 09:42:19 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 09:45:44 AM by DavidB. »

Personally I think that we need to recreate the middle-ground, obviously. First by stopping to pretend that there are no problems with immigration. If you don't see the problems that the voters see, they are not going to trust you. Then we have to present better solutions to those problems. Simply copying a light version of SD's policy won't hold, both because it's morally wrong, but also because if your policy is just a weak copy of your opponent, the voters will prefer the original. Still the two options in Swedish politics can't be completely free immigration, or no immigration.
I'm curious: what should such a middle ground look like, then, according to you? Because from a "mainstream Swedish" perspective every middle ground option would, by now, look like a compromise to SD, or like "SD light policy".

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As an outsider, for me this is the hardest to "grasp" from different Western European "radical right wing" (as they are called in academia, I don't necessarily agree with this typology, but whatev) parties. After all, the amount/influence of radicals/crazies within a party is not something you read about in a party program or even in a newspaper. It is easy for me to assess this for the PVV, but for parties abroad this is much harder.

I've come to think that the amount of radicals/anti-Semites/true racists really depends on the roots of nationalism in a certain country, which is also the reason that the Swedish "radical-right" ideology/movement is somewhat more receptive to "Germanic/Nordic" mythology (which tends to go downhill pretty soon...) than, for instance, its Danish counterpart: WWII has had a tremendous influence on the various European "nationalisms". This is also the reason that anti-Semitism has quite a big part in the Flemish nationalist movement and (almost) none in Dutch nationalism (comparable to Denmark).

I didn't have the idea that if you scratch the surface, anti-Semitism has a place in SD (they have a Jewish MP as well, I read), but if you say so, then it doesn't surprise me that much, because it has a place in Swedish nationalism as well. I did find the SDU video frightening. On the other hand, the misquoting of Björn Söder to make him look like an anti-Semite was a pathetic joke, I think.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #509 on: August 13, 2015, 09:56:32 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 10:10:10 AM by DavidB. »

I also have some totally unrelated questions: recently, I read about Systembolaget. How popular is this among Swedish voters? Are there any polls about this? And how do you, Swedish posters, think about it?

I read that most of the complaining is about their opening hours (they supposedly close at 3 PM on Saturdays and then don't open again until Monday). That seems truly reasonable to me, as I consider it my own personal freedom to buy some beers on Sunday at 10:30 PM if I feel like doing so. But then again, I have this "liberal" Dutch perspective on this issue, which is, of course, not universal at all. I understand that there might be legitimate counterarguments. I'm really curious about your answers.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #510 on: August 13, 2015, 11:45:43 AM »

I also have some totally unrelated questions: recently, I read about Systembolaget. How popular is this among Swedish voters? Are there any polls about this? And how do you, Swedish posters, think about it?

I read that most of the complaining is about their opening hours (they supposedly close at 3 PM on Saturdays and then don't open again until Monday). That seems truly reasonable to me, as I consider it my own personal freedom to buy some beers on Sunday at 10:30 PM if I feel like doing so. But then again, I have this "liberal" Dutch perspective on this issue, which is, of course, not universal at all. I understand that there might be legitimate counterarguments. I'm really curious about your answers.

This is an issue where I'm about as lukewarm as the beers they sell. Tongue

But seriously, it's a nanny state argument. Swedish alcohol consumption is pretty low by European standards partly thanks to Systembolaget. The whole point is that it makes it harder to buy. The argument to the contrary is of course that it's bloody paternalism and I should be able to get a beer if I want to.

My issue is honestly less the opening hours and more the fact that they don't sell beer cold. So you can never get cold beer spontaneously.
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« Reply #511 on: August 13, 2015, 12:06:18 PM »

I'm curious: what should such a middle ground look like, then, according to you? Because from a "mainstream Swedish" perspective every middle ground option would, by now, look like a compromise to SD, or like "SD light policy".

I'm not sure, and if I was it would be too hard to sum it up in a short readable forum post. Tongue But since all this recent fuss has been about beggers I'll use that as an example. SD's policy is that we should ban begging, and the Moderates recently proposed that we should ban organised begging, not all begging just organised begging. That to me is SD policy light. A more reasonable middle-ground would be to say that: yes, we admit that the begging is a problem, but these are very poor desperate people who will not stop begging because we ban it because they have no other choice. Instead we need to put pressure on and help the Romanian government to address the poverty at home, while at the same time cracking down at the traffickers that bring the beggars here. Naturally lots of people won't be happy at such a position either, but that is sort of besides the point.         

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Yes, SD has two Jewish MP:s if I'm not mistaken (which for Sweden is a lot) and the party's official line is pro-Israel, however when you move beyond the leadership you get a whole different picture. I don't know how much you've read about the struggle between SD and its youth-wing. The falling out between them started when the youth leadership wasn't willing to support the main party's pro-Israel stances for unclear reasons... A recently defected party member and local big-shot for the party also revealed after leaving that at least one MP, Anna Hagwall, subscribe to Jewish conspiracy theories. The defector also revealed that although he was still supportive of SD's official policies, the white-supremacy, homophobic, and anti-Semitic discussion that was happening behind closed doors was too much for him to stand. 

As for Björn Söder he is an intolerant prick, however clearly not in the anti-Semitic camp what ever quoting out of context people do.

I also have some totally unrelated questions: recently, I read about Systembolaget. How popular is this among Swedish voters? Are there any polls about this? And how do you, Swedish posters, think about it?

I want to abolish it! But then I'm more of a fan of the Dutch liberal tradition. Tongue

I'm in the minority though. It has quite large popular support. Which of course is silly since all Swedes that can, import cheap alcohol from Germany with-out any qualms. However Systemet is a rigid part of "Swedish exceptionalism" and culture. Our love and hate relationship with the place is one of few forms of accepted nationalism we have.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #512 on: August 13, 2015, 12:42:30 PM »

This is an issue where I'm about as lukewarm as the beers they sell. Tongue

But seriously, it's a nanny state argument. Swedish alcohol consumption is pretty low by European standards partly thanks to Systembolaget. The whole point is that it makes it harder to buy. The argument to the contrary is of course that it's bloody paternalism and I should be able to get a beer if I want to.

My issue is honestly less the opening hours and more the fact that they don't sell beer cold. So you can never get cold beer spontaneously.

I understand. However, while the total Swedish alcohol consumption per capita is, indeed, low by European standards, people drink a lot when they actually drink. Compare the chart for "heavy prevalence drinking" in Sweden to the chart in the Netherlands. The argument for Systembolaget is then, of course, that this prevents people from buying alcohol more often (and getting drunk more often); the argument against it is that  Systembolaget enables a culture in which many people don't drink "moderately" - they either drink nothing or get totally drunk. At the same time, Swedish drinking culture is rooted in a history that doesn't allow for good comparison with non-Nordic countries like the Netherlands. It is likely that "heavy prevalence" alcohol consumption will not at all decrease to non-Nordic standards if Systembolaget is abolished. Still, I would probably be against it if I were living in Sweden - adults should be treated like adults.

I'm not sure, and if I was it would be too hard to sum it up in a short readable forum post. Tongue But since all this recent fuss has been about beggers I'll use that as an example. SD's policy is that we should ban begging, and the Moderates recently proposed that we should ban organised begging, not all begging just organised begging. That to me is SD policy light. A more reasonable middle-ground would be to say that: yes, we admit that the begging is a problem, but these are very poor desperate people who will not stop begging because we ban it because they have no other choice. Instead we need to put pressure on and help the Romanian government to address the poverty at home, while at the same time cracking down at the traffickers that bring the beggars here. Naturally lots of people won't be happy at such a position either, but that is sort of besides the point.
I understand. Thanks for explaining this.

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Yes, I read quite some things about that. The "unclear" reasons that SDU didn't want to support Israel anymore can't be that unclear, I guess - it's probably that they don't like da Jooozzz. It is more worrisome that people within the party itself (and even an MP) seem to subscribe to homophobic and anti-Semitic ideas. People on the left will probably laugh at me for this, but everytime I find out that an anti-immigration party is filled with this kind of people it makes me feel disappointed. As a non-racist, non-homophobic conservative/right-wing/immigration-skeptic/Euroskeptic Jew I truly find myself between a rock and a hard place these days, at least in many countries.
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I want to abolish it! But then I'm more of a fan of the Dutch liberal tradition. Tongue

I'm in the minority though. It has quite large popular support. Which of course is silly since all Swedes that can, import cheap alcohol from Germany with-out any qualms. However Systemet is a rigid part of "Swedish exceptionalism" and culture. Our love and hate relationship with the place is one of few forms of accepted nationalism we have.
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Interesting explanation, hadn't thought of its place within "Swedish exceptionalism" and Swedish culture! It's like finding it "charming" if the shower is always cold at home Tongue
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #513 on: August 13, 2015, 12:43:59 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 12:45:56 PM by Viewfromthenorth »

I understand. However, while the total Swedish alcohol consumption per capita is, indeed, low by European standards, people drink a lot when they actually drink.

Well, as far as I know this has kind of always been the case in the Nordic countries, partly due to our religious history.

It should be noted that the best-selling branch of it is located in the small border town of Strömstad - a town which probably more Norwegians than Swedes are aware of, because everyone from the Oslo Fjord region goes there for cheap booze. This has to do partly with taxes, but also with selection, which is seen by many to be better at Systemet than at the Norwegian Vinmonopolet. There's even a ferry from the city of Sandefjord in Norway to Strömstad, which survives on a mix of duty-free sales (as it crosses national borders, technically) and people headed for Systembolaget (and to the grocery stores that sell cheap meat and candy).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #514 on: August 13, 2015, 12:50:21 PM »

I understand. However, while the total Swedish alcohol consumption per capita is, indeed, low by European standards, people drink a lot when they actually drink.

Well, as far as I know this has kind of always been the case in the Nordic countries, partly due to our religious history.
Yeah, that's what I meant when I said that "Swedish drinking culture is rooted in a history that doesn't allow for good comparison with non-Nordic countries like the Netherlands".

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Lol. I almost forgot that, indeed, Finland and Norway have similar systems. Amazes me.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #515 on: August 13, 2015, 01:08:28 PM »

There is a saying that the Norwegians go to Sweden for cheap beer, the Swedes go to Germany, and the Germans go to the Czech Republic.
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« Reply #516 on: August 13, 2015, 01:10:24 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 01:26:59 PM by Swedish Austerity Creep »

But then of course, the Norwegians also go here to buy cheap candy.
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« Reply #517 on: August 13, 2015, 01:16:35 PM »

But then of course, the Norwegians also go her to buy cheap candy.

And meat, and frozen foods etc.

Myself, I haven't actually been to Strömstad in over ten years, because we do all our shopping at the giant mall in Nordby, just a kilometer or so from the border (but in the same municipality as Strömstad). As far as I know, that is Norwegian property mogul Olav Thon's most profitable operation.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #518 on: August 19, 2015, 04:23:34 PM »

According to rumor, Metro Sweden will present a YouGov poll in tomorrow's newspaper which has the Sweden Democrats as the largest party nationally.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #519 on: August 19, 2015, 04:50:31 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2015, 04:52:37 PM by DavidB. »

According to rumor, Metro Sweden will present a YouGov poll in tomorrow's newspaper which has the Sweden Democrats as the largest party nationally.
That's exactly what the other parties deserve for sticking their heads into the sand. Of course, it will only add to the polarization and to the exclusion of SD - not only the exclusion of the party itself, but also of the issues it raises. Which will in turn, of course, make sure that SD will continue to grow. Et cetera, et cetera. A regrettable situation.

Admittedly, I expected this would happen after the ill-advised "pact" between the Red-Greens and Alliansen, but not so quickly. The mainstream parties have done everything to accelerate the process, though...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #520 on: August 19, 2015, 05:45:15 PM »

Good Lord.
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« Reply #521 on: August 20, 2015, 02:48:08 AM »

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« Reply #522 on: August 20, 2015, 04:27:40 AM »

SD + M 46,2

S, V, Mp, C, F 46,6

It is close to the SD/M majority, which may tempt some Moderates if it lasts over a longer period.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #523 on: August 20, 2015, 12:24:20 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2015, 12:30:26 PM by DavidB. »

It is close to the SD/M majority, which may tempt some Moderates if it lasts over a longer period.
But things might be more complicated if SD truly ends up as the bigger party of the two, even in the very unlikely event that M would actually be willing to cooperate with them.

(Of course, the case could also be made that SD being the biggest party, leading to "inevitability", would actually be the only situation for other parties to be willing to cooperate with them, but that seems less likely to me.)
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« Reply #524 on: August 20, 2015, 07:11:09 PM »

every thread on the internet regarding this poll has turned into a white power circlejerk
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