The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[DavidB.]

Question to the Swedish posters: if I want to find Swedish election results by municipality in the past, where should I look? I am thinking of the 1950s onwards.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Question to the Swedish posters: if I want to find Swedish election results by municipality in the past, where should I look? I am thinking of the 1950s onwards.

Recent elections:
http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Historisk-statistik/Statistik-efter-serie/Sveriges-officiella-statistik-SOS-utg-1912-/Valstatistik-1909-1999/Kommunala-valen-1919-1966/ and http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Historisk-statistik/Sok-historisk-statistik/?Statistikserie=Allm%C3%A4nna+valen+%28SOS%29+1970-1998

Note that important municipal reforms took place in the 1950s and 1970s (before the 1950s the municipalities were parish-sized). Hence, you cannot usually find data for any of the current municipalities before 1970. If you are interested in one particular municipality it might be easiest to check its (Swedish language) Wikipedia page.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Question to the Swedish posters: if I want to find Swedish election results by municipality in the past, where should I look? I am thinking of the 1950s onwards.

Use Gunnar's links if you want to find the results in elections to city councils and municipality councils. For the general elections, and referendums these links will work. Couldn't find any General election results by municipality before 1958, and only local results in referendums for the 2003 and 1994 referendums.

General elections
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998 (p. 32 onward)
1994 (p. 36 onward)
1991 (p. 22 onward)
1988 (p. 163 onward)
1985 (p. 182 onward)
1982 (p. 181 onward)
1979 (p. 180 onward)
1976 (p. 156 onward)
1973 (p. 161 onward)
1970 (p. 210 onward)
1968 (p. 239 onward)
1964 (p. 32 onward)
1960 (p. 28 onward)
1958 (p. 18 onward)

National referendums
2003 EURO-Zone membership
1994 Membership European Union

[Gunnar Larsson]

Having looked a little bit at the election results from the area where I grew up I am sure it would be possible to do lots of interesting analysis based on the data. One clear trend is that the electorate has become much more diverse party-wise. In the 50s the Centre party managed to get close to 90 % of the votes! At the last election it was fairly even with the Centre Party, Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Moderates all getting about 20 % (not the same boundaries as the current one is bigger, but still..).

[DavidB.]

Thank you so much!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Having looked a little bit at the election results from the area where I grew up I am sure it would be possible to do lots of interesting analysis based on the data. One clear trend is that the electorate has become much more diverse party-wise.

Indeed. I do believe I heard Sören Holmberg (Sweden's most distinguished election professor for third-party readers) say that it was a trend that the geographic political polarisation in Sweden was diminishing, but that it was broken around 2006, and that we have since then once again started to move in a direction with more geographic political polarisation. I'd be interesting to make a further analytical dive into the numbers on that one though.   

Thank you so much!

No problem.

[DavidB.]

Excellent idea...

[Marokai Backbeat]

Thankfully describing appearances of criminals isn't important or anything.

[DavidB.]

Something weird is going on with the Swedish opinion polls. Sentio, YouGov and Inizio structurally have SD a lot higher than SKOP and Demoskop. Of course polling radical right-wing parties is generally risky business, but even then I find the differences to be extraordinarily large, sometimes over 10%.

[DavidB.]

YouGov poll:

SD 28.8
S 21.6
M 21.4
V 7.5
C 6.8
MP 4.2
L 4.0
KD 3.1
F! 2.0

SD and M have a majority of 50.2%. A lot can happen in almost three years...

[ingemann]

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http://www.thelocal.se/20160418/swedens-housing-minister-quits-after-row



Swedish Turkish leader resigns after "death to Armenians" speech

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6408898

Let's hope that the Swedish Green Party doesn't get 4% the next election.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Let's hope that the Swedish Green Party doesn't get 4% the next election.

It's not that unlikely that they actually fall below it at this point. This is far from the Greens first fock up the last year. Anyway, the two co-leaders of the party is now at risk of being ousted from their positions at the party's national congress in two weeks because of the party's complete collapse.   

[ingemann]

Let's hope that the Swedish Green Party doesn't get 4% the next election.

It's not that unlikely that they actually fall below it at this point. This is far from the Greens first fock up the last year. Anyway, the two co-leaders of the party is now at risk of being ousted from their positions at the party's national congress in two weeks because of the party's complete collapse.   

We can only hope.

I also found these two interesting articles from the local

http://www.thelocal.se/20160423/green-party-may-have-been-infiltrated-by-islamists-researcher

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http://www.thelocal.se/20160428/green-party-politician-invited-bin-ladens-mentor-to-malm

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If I didn't already thought that MP was a bunch of complete retards (well I'm a little embarassed that I can't find a better words than retards, but morons or idiots are simply not strong enough) over their anti-growth policies. This would make me lose all respect that I had for them. But of course I can't lose anything I didn't have, for the anti growth thing is simply too stupid to write into a party program, it's worse than being 5th column for Salafists.

[Simfan34]

And the Greens are in government!

[ingemann]

And the Greens are in government!

Yep, which is a good thing, if it means the Swedes get rid of them next election.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Åsa Romson, Sweden's Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Environment, and one of two co-leaders of the Swedish Green Party will gets ousted from her position in top politics in the coming days as the party's nominating committee has not nominated her for re-election at the party's congress next weekend.



The Green party has been struggling recently after a series of rough compromises and broken promises on immigration, defense and environmental policy as well as a number of minor scandals. Romson will be the second Green minister to resign in the last month. Housing Minister Mehmet Kaplan also had to resign after a scandal that has left many asking whether the Greens have been infiltrated by extremist Islam.

Romson, who holds a PhD in Environmental Law, has not herself been very involved in the latest scandals but has previously been highly critisised for a number of gaffes and having painted her boat with toxic colour and is the least popular party leader according to polls.

Former MEP and Minister for Foreign Aid, Isabella Lövin, has been suggested to replace her. The other leader of the party, Minister of Education, Gustav Fridolin so far appears to be safe in his position but it's not entirely out of the question that he might be challenged and defeated at the party congress later this week. 

You can read more here.

[The Lord Marbury]

Stefan Löfven has presented a cabinet reshuffle today so here's the main points.

People who are leaving the government:
Minister for Climate and the Environment Åsa Romson (MP)
Minister for Housing and Urban Development Mehmet Kaplan (MP) [already gone]
Minister for Strategic Development and Nordic Cooperation Kristina Persson (S)

Current ministers who get new or changed responsibilities:
-Minister for International Development and Green co-leader Isabella Lövin (MP) now has the title Minister for International Development and Climate as well as the title Deputy Prime Minister.
-Minister for Energy Ibrahim Baylan (S) is moved from the Environment Ministry to the Prime Minister's Office and now has the title Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy, with added responsibilites for coordinating cross-departemental policy issues.
-Minister for Foreign Affairs Margot Wallström (S) takes over responsibility for the Nordic cooperation issues.

New ministers:
Minister for EU Affairs and Trade Ann Linde (S)
-State Secretary for Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman, 2014-2016
-Head of the International Office, Party of European Socialists, 2013-2014
-Secretary for International Issues, Social Democrats, 2000-2013
Minister for Housing and Digital Development Peter Eriksson (MP)
-Member of the European Parliament, 2014-2016
-Chair of the Riksdag's Committee on Constitutional Affairs, 2010-2014
-Co-leader of the Green Party, 2002-2011
Minister for the Environment Karolina Skog (MP)
-Municipal commissioner in Malmö municipality, 2010-2016

[Gunnar Larsson]

For the first time in over 600 years and the second time ever a Swede has been made a saint:
http://www.thelocal.se/20160605/swedish-nurse-who-saved-jews-is-made-a-saint.

[DavidB.]

Is there anything going on in Sweden?

[Diouf]

The cracks in the Alliance is growing stronger by the day. The Moderates thinks the Alliance parties should submit a common budget this fall, which, if supported by the Sweden Democrats, would get a majority. This would force the Red-Green government to resign as it would be untenable for a government to stay in power, implementing the opposition's budget. The Christian Democrats support this idea, while the Centre Party and the Liberals reject it. We might see a complete collapse of the Alliance, if the Moderates and the Christian Democrats continue to oppose keeping the Red-Green government in power. The Moderates still reject government or budget negotiations with Sweden Democrats, but they are no longer ruling out some cooperation with them on comittees. The "Danish model" of Moderate-Christian government supported by Sweden Democrats will probably not be an option already at the next election, but we are closer to a point, where it could happen. The difference between the Moderates and the two small socially liberal Alliance parties seem to be getting bigger and bigger.


http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6611471

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The difference between the Moderates and the two small socially liberal Alliance parties seem to be getting bigger and bigger.

At this point I don't think it's possible to form an "Alliance" government even after the 2018 elections. The divide over immigration policy has become to infected for there to be a compromise all four parties can get behind. On the other hand very few members of either the Centre Party or the Liberals seem to want to prop up a Social Democratic government either. It'll be interesting to watch how this develops over the coming months, but I think that Sweden is moving in a Norwegian direction with the Moderates moving closer to SD, with them playing the part of Höyre and Frp respectively, with the small social liberal parties C and L forming a semi-independent centre-right in the middle like Venstre and KrF. 

[The Lord Marbury]

So after an entire day of bickering and the Centre, Liberal and Christian Democratic parties going out and saying that they will not follow the Moderates' lead and be open to negotiating with the Sweden Democrats in the Riksdag, Anna Kinberg Batra held a press conference basically just saying that the Moderates are sticking by what she said on Thursday. I just don't get how this is in any way supposed to work logistically for them. The only point in negotiating with the Sweden Democrats would be to get a majority for proposals in the Riksdag, but for that they need the rest of the Alliance and they still have no interest in talking with the Sweden Democrats. Are they planning on jumping back and forth, first negotiating with the Sweden Democrats, then negotiating within the Alliance, then with the Sweden Democrats, then with the Alliance, etc?

Or what's more likely is that they don't really have a plan at all and this is just an attempt to turn back the flow of voters to the Sweden Democrats, but in that case I think AKB and the Moderate leadership are gravely underestimating the willingness of SD voters to suddenly jump ship and vote M. After all, now that AKB is legitimising the Sweden Democrats by being willing to negotiate with them M/SD swing voters might as well decide to stick with SD, confident that they will get a rightwing government either way but with a stronger SD to drag it even further to the right.

The divide between the Alliance parties seems to be growing bigger by the day, and unless there's some spectacular landslide victory I doubt that the Alliance will make it past 2018. Even now it's on life support, since a government alternative with no united position on how to act in the very likely case of another hung parliament situation like 2014 isn't much of an alternative at all.

I also doubt that this mess will do much good for the Moderates in the polls, and considering how they've acted in the past week, I wonder what'll happen if the polls drop even further and they get even more desperate.

Some polls:

SIFO: Who would you vote for if there was an election today? (9-19 January)
Left: 8.0% (-0.4)
Social Democrat: 29.7% (+2.1)
Green: 4.3% (-0.9)

Liberal: 5.3% (-0.7)
Centre: 9.3% (+0.2)
Moderate: 21.9% (-0.3)
Christian Democrat: 2.6% (-1.0)

Sweden Democrat: 16.0% (+0.8]

Other: 2.9% (+0.3)

Red-Green total: 42.0% (+0.8]
"Alliance" total: 39.1% (-1.8]

SIFO: Party leader approvals (12-15 December)
Annie Lööf (Centre): 45% (+5)
Stefan Löfven (Social Democrat): 43% (+8)
Anna Kinberg Batra (Moderate): 40% (-5)
Jan Björklund (Liberal): 34% (+2)
Jonas Sjöstedt (Left): 31% (-)
Gustaf Fridolin (Green): 26% (+1)
Isabella Lövin (Green): 21% (+3)
Jimmie Åkesson (Sweden Democrat): 20% (-)
Ebba Busch Thor (Christian Democrat): 18% (-1)

[DavidB.]

Given the fact that the Sweden Democrats mainly take votes from the (former?) Alliance it seems likely that the left-wing parties will once again win a plurality in the next election. Does this mean the left will continue to have the initiative to form governments until the right is prepared to negotiate with the Sweden Democrats? That would be pretty insane given that more than 55% could vote for non-left-wing parties, but obviously the Alliance are at fault for that.

[The Lord Marbury]

Depends on who you ask. All "Alliance" parties have pledged to vote against (and trigger government formation talks with the Speaker) Stefan Löfven if he tries to stay on after the next election even if the left wins a plurality, and the Moderates and Christian Democrats wants to form an Alliance government even if the Red-Greens are larger than the Alliance. Although the Christian Democrats don't want to negotiate with the Sweden Democrats and simply trust that they won't have the guts to bring down an Alliance government, while the Moderates are now open to negotiating with them in the Riksdag, but apparently not about important things like the budget and are instead mumbling something about transportation policy.

The Liberals on the other hand have ruled out forming an Alliance government if the Red-Greens are larger, as has the Centre Party, since such a government would be reliant on Sweden Democrat support every time the Red-Greens vote as one bloc. The Liberals have said that they would prefer dealing with the Social Democrats in that case, with the caveat that they also want the Alliance as a whole to enter talks with the Social Democrats. The Centre Party hasn't really made a choice yet and are sticking by the Alliance with no clear alternative, however the party and Annie Lööf has invested far too much political capital in their opposition to the Sweden Democrats to be able to change their mind after the election and enter a government dependent on the Sweden Democrats and/or negotiate with them. At least not without facing massive talks of betrayal likely far worse than what Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems faced after entering the coalition in 2010.

[DavidB.]

Thank you, very informative.