The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Gunnar Larsson]

While it seems morally correct to scrap this deal, the handling of our foreign policy is beginning to worry me. They seem to have no idea what they're doing.

I think the plan is quite clear: grow a backbone and push the international Overton window as much as possible on important issues.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Has the Swedish pollsters said anything about why they under pollled SD?

Here Gallup has just said they failed to include certain parameters and as the reason why they under polled DPP, but kept quiet as to what those "parameters" may be. Are Swedish pollsters equally wussy?

I remember some pollster talking about their failure to take into account that some people would be hesitant to say that they supported SD, somewhat similar to the "Shy Tory Factor" talked about in the UK 1992 (and to some extent 2015) elections. Other than that I can't think of anything at the moment.

I would very much assume that to be the case. With an inverse Proud Green & Feminist Initiative Factor as well. Before and after the European Union election last year I was part of a web panel for Gothenburg University. The results they published were quite interesting. I think there were three different panels, based on different criteria ranging from trying to match the electorate to self selected. In the self selected one Feminist Initiative were of about the same size as the social democrats! Even when they tried to match the electorate Feminist Initiative were over represented by quite a bit.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Back to Sweden, I have a question. I'm sure all of you will say that a coalition with ANY far-right party, even just giving outside support, is impossible in Sweden right now.

Eventually it will happen though, it's going to be hard though because the Swedish Democrats are so much more extreme than the Danish People's Party or the Progress Party, with their neo-Nazi past.

Is there any chance that some of the more moderate, or at least less tainted, people within the SD break out and establish a new party that might be more suitable for a coalition?

It is hardly a law of nature that there will be cooperation with far right parties...

Anyway, I would say that a far more likely scenario is that the right would like to get back to the situation between 2010 and 2014, i.e. no formal cooperation, but with SD voting with the centre-right parties in 90 % of the important votes due to shared ideas. Of course in the remaining cases they would have to either cooperate with one or more parties on the left or they would lose, but that is likely good enough.

It is not really the case that there is a more moderate fraction that might split the party. It is rather the other way around, i.e. their youth organisation etc. not thinking they are far right enough. (In a similar fashion the party was most likely helped by an earlier split where some of the most far right people formed "Nationaldemokraterna").

[Gunnar Larsson]

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... but a problem with this as I see it, in my experience most women don't vote after these policies. In my experience the whole gender equality as a primary policy focus are hold by very few women outside a academic elite. The "gender issues" they usual care about seem more like cheap and convenient access to childcare (so that they can work), things which are relative easy to focus on and result in a large improvement of their daily life.

I get the feeling that you probably substantially underestimate the size of the academic "elite", a sizeable share of the electorate have spent a few years at a university. Not really sure what your point is with regards to gender issues. They can get votes on both types of gender issues in a similar way as green parties might win votes on all sorts of "green issues" etc.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Divers have found a sunken mini-sub marine (with inscriptions in Cyrillic letters) in Swedish territorial waters.. The 80s are back..

Though in this case it looks like Putin is innocent, as the submarine was built when Nicholas II was tsar and sunk almost 100 years ago.

[Gunnar Larsson]

I get the feeling that you probably substantially underestimate the size of the academic "elite", a sizeable share of the electorate have spent a few years at a university. Not really sure what your point is with regards to gender issues. They can get votes on both types of gender issues in a similar way as green parties might win votes on all sorts of "green issues" etc.

I have spend time at a university, so have many people I know, most of us still doesn't belong to a academic elite.

As for the rest of your post, yes of course you can have both have practical policies and weird ivory tower theorectical discussions about gender equality. But it's rarely a vote winner. Most parties have a limited policies to brand themselves, and it's rare for a party to succeed in branding itself both as a practical pig and a philosopher king at the same time.

Well, then you are (apart from being male) part of the demographics from which FI get many of their votes. They are not all Phds in Gender Studies, but comes from a somewhat broader demographics as described by politicus.

I would say that it is rather common to have both very ideological and very pragmatic fractions/tendencies in most parties. For example you have the fundis vs realos for the greens. I would say that the workers movement is the only exception as it has been large enough to contain both pragmatic social democratic parties and more ideological communist/leftist parties. I would say that the FI brand is basically feminism/justice between the genders, rather than any specific policies (in the same way as the green brand is about environmentalism and the SD brand about anti-immigration, without being tightly bound to any specific policies).

[Gunnar Larsson]

The answer is as Gustaf say, because Stockholm are rich, but there's a more interesting structural explanation. In most European countries, rural areas was primarily agricultural areas, which mean they was home to mostly farmers. While cities was home to the growing industries, which resulted in a large working class. Sweden on the other hand developed much of their early industry in rural areas, from early copper mining, glass making, pine tar production, iron mining etc, so they developed a rural working class. At the same time any farmers was in many areas extremely poor and often worked as workers in the industry too, so these people had interest in socialist policies. The cities on the other hand was too large extent home to the capitalist class, those who serviced them and richer skilled workers. It's also why when we look at Scania which share similar structures to Denmark, we see much more similar voting pattern to Denmark.

This is unusual in European context, but we spots around Europe which share similar structures, like the rural areas in Westphalia which belong to Prussia before 1789, which was also home to rural industries.

^So much this^

As Ingemann says, its not as easy as cities in Sweden are rich, thus centre-right, the country side is poor, thus centre-left. Throughout southern Sweden the pattern is the same in as in the rest of Europe, especially Denmark. In Scania for example, Malmö has always been the deep red Social Democratic bastion of the region, while the agriculturally dominated countryside has historically been steadily right-wing. Stockholm has never been an industrial city, it's always been, and remains a city for civil servants, capitalists, and other traders. Gothenburg and Malmö on the other hand is a whole different story. 

The real key to why a certain area in Sweden votes the way it does is:

Rural agricultural = Centre-right
Rural industrial = Centre-left

Urban white-collar: Centre-right
Urban industrial: Centre-left.

I think this is overall a very good description. Could also add that as of lately, with a trend towards social issues becoming more important there has been a general shift where relatively speaking the cities have moved left and the countryside right. Right now the left control all the largest cities, without having to make any arrangements about SD. So in that sense Stockholm City (as well as Uppsala, with a similar history)  is to the left of the country, which as far as I know is rare.

However, it should be mentioned that all three big cities have substantial right-leaning suburbs. Therefore Stockholm County is still controlled by the right.

[Gunnar Larsson]

And what's the general sentiment as to the repercussions of this? Will this strengthen the SD's position in society because it cut ties with an organization deemed to be too right wing? Or will the narrative be that the party is facing an internal split (which is how the German media would cover it), which could drive away some voters?

I don't think the impact will be overly big in any direction, their youth organisation don't get that much focus. I would guess that the impact might be bigger when it comes to the internal functioning of the party, it is very centralised and I guess this will make it even more so. Not sure of the long-term consequences of that though.

[Gunnar Larsson]

So, what will the cast aside youth-wing do? Is Ohlson some Malema-esque rabble raiser?

They're going to start by suing the mother party. At least according to one of the few interviews Ohlsson has given. SDU is listed as an associated organisation in the party's by-laws, and those can only be changed if supported by 75% of delegates at the party conference. So unless the party manages to get the sufficient 75% at this year's conference there will be a legal battle if they can actually cut their ties to the youth wing.

So SDU is going to fight to remain part of the party, and if they succeed they have said their aim is to defeat and replace the current leadership.

If they fail, they have indicated that they'll form a new party however.

Interesting situation. When is the party conference?

November

Any polls of the electoral potential for a "to the right of SD" party?

Probably not. The history of Nationaldemokraterna (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democrats_%28Sweden%29) might provide some clues; though obviously the party is bigger now and there might be a bit more space. If they form before the next election (2018) they might also get a sizeable representation in some municipalities if they are good at recruiting SD activists.

[Gunnar Larsson]

In other news, a recent DN/Ipsos poll shows a major increase in the number of people who think we should take in more refugees than we already do compared to a poll taken in february.

Do you think that Sweden should take in more or less refugees than we do today?
Significantly more: 23% (+14)
Somewhat more: 21% (+4)
Neither more nor less: 20% (-13)
Don't know: 6% (+1)
Somewhat less: 14% (-2)
Significantly less: 16% (-4)

Are you concerned about....

...an increased number of refugees?
Yes: 39% (+9)
No: 57% (-11)

...xenophobia?
Yes: 71%
No: 27%

It is the first time to my knowledge that more people want to take more refugees rather than less and is obviously due to the current situation (the number of people that want increase the number of received refugees has increased from 17 to 44 % just since the beginning of September). However, it is also part of a long term trend. As can be seen in this article

http://www.svd.se/sifo-alan-kurdi-gjorde-svenskarna-positivare-till-flyktingar/om/flyktingkrisen-i-europa

(the graph below the header "FLYKTINGOPINIONEN" show the number of people that want to reduce the number of refugees , not reduce or dont have a strong opintion [light blow])

[Gunnar Larsson]

The 27% that aren't concerned about xenophobia corresponds to the share that will vote for SD, so a very polarized population. It is a shame the poll didn't ask about intensity of positions. That would be interesting for Sweden.

The number of SD voters differ between polls though, other polls have them at about 20, or in one case 16 %.

[Gunnar Larsson]

The 27% that aren't concerned about xenophobia corresponds to the share that will vote for SD, so a very polarized population. It is a shame the poll didn't ask about intensity of positions. That would be interesting for Sweden.

The number of SD voters differ between polls though, other polls have them at about 20, or in one case 16 %.

16% is clearly an outlier. I think the interesting thing here is that there is a relatively large minority which is outside the consensus. If you distrust the YouGov poll and others at that level lets just say the number is 21.5% (not unrealistic). In that case about 80% of the people saying xenophobia isn't a problem are voting for a nativist party. Given the relatively higher number of immigrants and that only a small number of them would vote SD (there is always some, but quite few) this equals at more than a quarter of old stock Swedes (dunno if you call them "old Swedes" the way we use new Danes/old Danes, but those who are ethnically Swedish). So you got a large share that are outside the consensus and my guess is they on average have stronger opinions about their position (= higher intensity) than the ones being more afraid of xenophobia than mass migration, which is the line the establishment supports and the media sustained social norm.

It make sense that SD voters are not that worried about xenophobia, yes. About the strength of opinions you can look at the number of people that want to change the number of refugees significantly. There are actually more people that want to increase it significantly. If you look at the ground you have a lot of people participating in stuff like "Refugees Welcome" etc.
I would say it work both ways. After the last election there was a lot of otherwise non political people expressing their horror at the number of possible neighbours voting SD.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Wonder if Swedish left wingers will also finance a counter campaign?

Good God, that idea hadn't even crossed my mind! :S Why do loony right-wingers and left-wingers get to spend my tax money?!

Since when is it your tax money??

Anyway, the situation is different. In Denmark it was the Danish state that basically said "Denmark sucks" and it made sense for people to say "No it doesn't". In this case it is a party that says "Sweden sucks", so its not the point of view of official Sweden, and if there is any need it is possible for embassy personnel in the relevant countries to issue statements etc.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Wonder if Swedish left wingers will also finance a counter campaign?

Good God, that idea hadn't even crossed my mind! :S Why do loony right-wingers and left-wingers get to spend my tax money?!

Since when is it your tax money??

Public party aid.

By that logic pretty much everything can be considered Swedish Austerity Cheese's tax money.

[Gunnar Larsson]

BTW as for the whole Roma camp in Malmö, have it been Sweden discusses whether to deport them back to Romania (it's fully legal) or will they be given housing?

What is available is temporary housing till Friday and bus tickets to Romania (source: http://www.sydsvenskan.se/malmo/eu-migranter-erbjuds-inget-nytt-boende/). The political climate is a bit different than in Denmark so actually deporting them is not on the agenda.

For the people staying during the winter there will probably be some kind of homelessness housing solution available (a cooperation between the municipality and a pentecostal church).

[Gunnar Larsson]

This thread is about Sweden, not about Gandhi.

Something entirely different: Moderaterna MP Finn Bengtsson has introduced a bill to ban all circumcision that is not considered medically necessary. As far as I know, such a ban would be the first one in Europe. Question to Swedish posters: what are the chances this bill will pass? Will the left see this in the perspective of religious minority rights, or will it consider this a "humanist, progressive" thing to do? SD will surely vote for this, whereas Liberals and Christian Democrats will likely not want to change the status-quo, I think.

Not something that the media talk about. If it is all circumcision then I would say that the probability that it will pass is about 0 (as it would be seen as anti-jewish and anti-muslim, and as male circumcision is considered fairly harmless as far as I know). As a rule of thumb I would say that if a bill is just introduced by one person it is very unlikely to pass.

[Gunnar Larsson]

^The man referred to in the post above was arrested by the security service earlier this evening, BTW.

It looks like the security service has messed up quite badly. The guy appears to have been rather public about his location (on facebook etc.), still it took two days to find him. And now he has been released. So, either they simply took the wrong guy, and someone planning a terror attack is still at large, or they thought that with so much going on they should do something as well, without having much to go by. Not sure which alternative is the most likely or the most worrying.

[Gunnar Larsson]

This government is almost criminally incompetent. Claiming that all is fine and then suddenly reversing completely is extremely poor management.

Seriously?

You don't think:


has anything to do with it?

This is obviously a rather horrible decision, but one that has been forced upon us by the medieval attitudes of most other European countries.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Green Deputy Prime Minister Åsa Romson cried during the press conference.

.....

What? She perfectly knows than doing that will cause her to lose her Green leader job soon. I don't see Green members backing for long after that.

It is clearly very controversial within the party. However, the Greens have no history of removing their spokespeople, so I would be surprised if that happens.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Episode 99 in the series named "the Swedish government's car crash foreign policy". Undoubtedly, many will follow.

We have a foreign policy, and it has been quite a while since we had that last time (and something that many countries lack). It will annoy the leadarship of some countries like Israel, Saudiarabia, Russia etc. So?

[Gunnar Larsson]

Question to the Swedish posters: if I want to find Swedish election results by municipality in the past, where should I look? I am thinking of the 1950s onwards.

Recent elections:
http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Historisk-statistik/Statistik-efter-serie/Sveriges-officiella-statistik-SOS-utg-1912-/Valstatistik-1909-1999/Kommunala-valen-1919-1966/ and http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Historisk-statistik/Sok-historisk-statistik/?Statistikserie=Allm%C3%A4nna+valen+%28SOS%29+1970-1998

Note that important municipal reforms took place in the 1950s and 1970s (before the 1950s the municipalities were parish-sized). Hence, you cannot usually find data for any of the current municipalities before 1970. If you are interested in one particular municipality it might be easiest to check its (Swedish language) Wikipedia page.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Having looked a little bit at the election results from the area where I grew up I am sure it would be possible to do lots of interesting analysis based on the data. One clear trend is that the electorate has become much more diverse party-wise. In the 50s the Centre party managed to get close to 90 % of the votes! At the last election it was fairly even with the Centre Party, Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats and Moderates all getting about 20 % (not the same boundaries as the current one is bigger, but still..).

[Gunnar Larsson]

For the first time in over 600 years and the second time ever a Swede has been made a saint:
http://www.thelocal.se/20160605/swedish-nurse-who-saved-jews-is-made-a-saint.