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Author Topic: 2014 U.S. Senate race projections  (Read 5847 times)
dudeabides
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« on: January 06, 2013, 12:28:05 am »
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Alaska:
Mead Treadwell (R) 49.8%
Mark Begich (D) 49.1%

Colorado:
Jane Norton (R) 51%
Mark Udall (D) 48%

Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) 64%
Joe Walsh (R) 35%

Iowa:
Tom Harkin (D) 55%
Kim Reynolds (R) 44%

Delaware:
Chris Coons (D) 63%
Christine O'Donell (R) 36%

Kentucky:
Mitch McConell (D) 67%
Generic Democratic 32%

Massachusetts:
Scott Brown (R) 50%
Ed Markey (D) 49%

Minnesota:
Al Franken (D) 61%
Michele Bachmann (R) 38%

Montana:
Steve Daines (R) 51%
Max Baucus (D) 48%

New Jersey:
Cory Booker (D) 64%
Michael Doughty (R) 35%

South Carolina:
Tim Scott (R) 77% (unopposed)

Lindsay Graham (R) 67% (unopposed)

Virginia:
Mark Warner (D) 57%
George Allen (R) 42%

West Virginia:
Shelly Moore Capito (R) 53%
Jay Rockefeller (D) 46%





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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2013, 11:08:10 am »
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Alaska:
Mead Treadwell (R) 49.8%
Mark Begich (D) 49.1%

Colorado:
Jane Norton (R) 51%
Mark Udall (D) 48%

Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) 64%
Joe Walsh (R) 35%

Iowa:
Tom Harkin (D) 55%
Kim Reynolds (R) 44%

Delaware:
Chris Coons (D) 63%
Christine O'Donell (R) 36%

Kentucky:
Mitch McConell (D) 67%
Generic Democratic 32%

Massachusetts:
Scott Brown (R) 50%
Ed Markey (D) 49%

Minnesota:
Al Franken (D) 61%
Michele Bachmann (R) 38%

Montana:
Steve Daines (R) 51%
Max Baucus (D) 48%

New Jersey:
Cory Booker (D) 64%
Michael Doughty (R) 35%

South Carolina:
Tim Scott (R) 77% (unopposed)

Lindsay Graham (R) 67% (unopposed)

Virginia:
Mark Warner (D) 57%
George Allen (R) 42%

West Virginia:
Shelly Moore Capito (R) 53%
Jay Rockefeller (D) 46%






There's still a lot that needs to be settles before then.  And what about Michigan?
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2013, 12:43:13 pm »
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You're far underestimating Begich (especially against someone like Treadwell), Udall (especially against someone like Norton), and Democratic strength in Kentucky (where Democrats control almost all statewide offices) and Montana (where Baucus is leading "R" by 6 points and Schweitzer leads "R" by 8 points). South Carolina as well is iffy; Lindsey is all but certain to draw a primary challenger, and then who knows what kind of crazy a primary will spit out.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2013, 01:08:23 pm »
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Udall would easily defeat Norton except possibly in a huge Republican wave, and considering her pathetic campaign in 2010 when her party had its strong tailwinds in a generation, I'm not entirely sure she'd be able to take advantage of her either. Republicans need to nominate John Suthers, Mike Coffman, or Cory Gardner if they are serious about challenging him.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2013, 03:08:47 pm »
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SD, WVA, AK are gone and kay hagen, is suspect as well.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2013, 03:21:50 pm »
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SD, WVA, AK are gone and kay hagen, is suspect as well.

Begich isn't gone. Not by a long shot. He's stood up for Alaska on every issue that's important to the state, from pusing back on the pushing back on the EPA over Shell Oil's permitting battles to questioning the military's realignment of fighter jets to protecting Native 8(a) contracting to keeping Alaska's fisheries out of harm's way. He has surpassed al expectations. As an incumbent he has a huge advantage in fundraising and has been a prolific fundraiser since his days in the Anchorage Assembly, and will have big donor support now. There's also no plausible opponent. If Parnell challenges him, eh'd have to announce in 2013 to start raising money, but that'd mean the governorship will be open, setting off Republichaos. If Parnell doesn't, then you see any number of challengers run in a race-to-the-right ugly Republican primary, critically damaging the nominee, who then of course has to face Begich, who is a very intelligent man with no qualms about running a scorched earth campaign against any Republican. There is no challenger with the intelligence, moderation, and experience of Begich. He's an incredible politician, and just because he's fro a Republican state he isn't automatically beatable. He's been right on all the most important Alaskan issues, and if we're out of the storm in two years his vote on the stimulus won't matter (and when increased Obamacare benefits to seniors kick in in 2 years, you lose that attack as well). Begich will also have a ton of administration officials helping his campaign. Incumbents don't lose to challengers, they beat themselves, and Begich has no history of self-destruction. Alaska: Democratic hold.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2013, 06:01:22 pm »
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Alabama-Richard Shelby 59% Dem 32%
Alaska- Mark Begich 50.3% Mead Treadwell 49.7%
Arkansas- Mark Pryor 53.4% Asa Hutchinson 46.6%
Colorado- Mark Udall 50.6% Scott Tipton 48.8%
Delaware, Chris Coons (unopposed
Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Idaho- Mike Crapo unopposed
Illinois- Richard Durbin 56% Aaron Shock 43.2%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
Kansas- Kevin Yoder 74%
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell 60% Andy Barr 39.9%
Louisana (Runoff) - John Fleming 50.7% Mary Landrieu 49.3%
Maine- Mike Michaud 39% Eliot Cutler 33% Michael Thibdeau 28%
Mass- Ed Markey 52% Scott Brown 48%
Michigan- Candice Miller 46.6% Jennifer Granholm 47.7%
Minnesota Al Franken 51.2% Michelle Bachmann 43%
Mississippi- Thad Cochran unopposed
Montana- Max Bacaus 50.1% Steve Daines 49.8%
Nebraska- Mike Johanns unopposed
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen 58% Jeb Bradley 41%
New Jersey -Cory Booker 54% Scott Garrett 45%
New Mexico- Tom Udall unopposed
North Carolina- Kay Hagan 50.3% Thomas Goolsby 49%
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe unopposed
Oregon- Jeff Merkely 55% Kevin Cameron 42%
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse unopposed
South Carolina "A"-(Primary) Lindsey Graham 44% Joe Wilson 51%
South Carolina "B"-Tim Scott 69% Vincent Sheheen 26%'
South Dakota Mike Rounds 56% Tim Johnson 43.4%
Tennessee- Diane Black- 57% Phil Breseden 41%
Texas- John Cornyn 69% Joaquin Castro 29%
Virginia-  Mark Warner 50.2% Bob McDonnell 49.6%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%
Wyoming- Mike Enzi unopposed
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2013, 07:21:01 pm »
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Is Baucus reallly that vunerable against a first time congressmen?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2013, 10:14:46 am »
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if TARP is still an issue than yes, he would be more so than Tester was against Rehberg.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2013, 07:49:16 pm »
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if TARP is still an issue than yes, he would be more so than Tester was against Rehberg.

TARP will be over six years old by the time the 2014 election rolls around.  That would be like a Democrat attacking a Republican for supporting Bush's Social Security plan in 2012. 
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sg0508
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2013, 08:38:09 pm »
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Way too optimistic from the GOP's standpoint.  Udall will win relatively easily in CO and if Brown is smart, he'll run for Gov in MA
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2013, 04:45:58 pm »
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Alaska:
Mead Treadwell (R) 49.8%
Mark Begich (D) 49.1%

Colorado:
1. Jane Norton (R) 51%
Mark Udall (D) 48%


Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) 64%
2. Joe Walsh (R) 35%

Iowa:
Tom Harkin (D) 55%
Kim Reynolds (R) 44%

Delaware:
Chris Coons (D) 63%
Christine O'Donell (R) 36%

Kentucky:
Mitch McConell (D) 67%
Generic Democratic 32%

Massachusetts:
Scott Brown (R) 50%
Ed Markey (D) 49%

Minnesota:
Al Franken (D) 61%
Michele Bachmann (R) 38%

Montana:
 3. Steve Daines (R) 51%
Max Baucus (D) 48%


New Jersey:
Cory Booker (D) 64%
Michael Doughty (R) 35%

South Carolina:
Tim Scott (R) 77% (unopposed)

Lindsay Graham (R) 67% (unopposed)

Virginia:
Mark Warner (D) 57%
4. George Allen (R) 42%

West Virginia:
Shelly Moore Capito (R) 53%
Jay Rockefeller (D) 46%







1. Udall is not losing
2. I sincerely believe the IL GOP is not dumb enough to nominate Walsh, plus 35% is too high for him.
3. The much more established, popular and well known Rehberg couldn't beat Baucus in the 1990s, or a much less known Jon Tester in 2012, what makes you think a 1st term congressman could be Baucus?
4. George Allen, I love the guy, but he aint running again. He's officially politically dead, sad to say.


Also, Reynolds wont run I think in Iowa. And Scott Brown winning is suspect.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2013, 05:48:57 pm »
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Alabama-Richard Shelby 59% Dem 32%
Alaska- Mark Begich 50.3% Mead Treadwell 49.7%
Arkansas- Mark Pryor 53.4% Asa Hutchinson 46.6%
Colorado- Mark Udall 50.6% Scott Tipton 48.8%
Delaware, Chris Coons (unopposed
Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Idaho- Mike Crapo unopposed
Illinois- Richard Durbin 56% Aaron Shock 43.2%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
Kansas- Kevin Yoder 74%
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell 60% Andy Barr 39.9%
Louisana (Runoff) - John Fleming 50.7% Mary Landrieu 49.3%
Maine- Mike Michaud 39% Eliot Cutler 33% Michael Thibdeau 28%
Mass- Ed Markey 52% Scott Brown 48%
Michigan- Candice Miller 46.6% Jennifer Granholm 47.7%
Minnesota Al Franken 51.2% Michelle Bachmann 43%
Mississippi- Thad Cochran unopposed
Montana- Max Bacaus 50.1% Steve Daines 49.8%
Nebraska- Mike Johanns unopposed
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen 58% Jeb Bradley 41%
New Jersey -Cory Booker 54% Scott Garrett 45%
New Mexico- Tom Udall unopposed
North Carolina- Kay Hagan 50.3% Thomas Goolsby 49%
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe unopposed
Oregon- Jeff Merkely 55% Kevin Cameron 42%
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse unopposed
South Carolina "A"-(Primary) Lindsey Graham 44% Joe Wilson 51%
South Carolina "B"-Tim Scott 69% Vincent Sheheen 26%'
South Dakota Mike Rounds 56% Tim Johnson 43.4%
Tennessee- Diane Black- 57% Phil Breseden 41%
Texas- John Cornyn 69% Joaquin Castro 29%
Virginia-  Mark Warner 50.2% Bob McDonnell 49.6%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%
Wyoming- Mike Enzi unopposed


Two I have to disagree with;

1) NJ - Booker is unbeatable and against Garrett, I'd still bet Booker wins by 15-17 points. However, I think State Sen. Mike Doughtey is a more likely contender, and I still say Booker wins by 18-20 points.

2) Mark Warner is more popular in VA than Bob McDonell; if that is the race I'd suspect a Warner win by 10-12 points.
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2013, 06:54:16 pm »
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Alaska:
Mead Treadwell (R) 49.8%
Mark Begich (D) 49.1%

Colorado:
Jane Norton (R) 51%
Mark Udall (D) 48%

Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) 64%
Joe Walsh (R) 35%

Iowa:
Tom Harkin (D) 55%
Kim Reynolds (R) 44%

Delaware:
Chris Coons (D) 63%
Christine O'Donell (R) 36%

Kentucky:
Mitch McConell (D) 67%
Generic Democratic 32%

Massachusetts:
Scott Brown (R) 50%
Ed Markey (D) 49%

Minnesota:
Al Franken (D) 61%
Michele Bachmann (R) 38%

Montana:
Steve Daines (R) 51%
Max Baucus (D) 48%

New Jersey:
Cory Booker (D) 64%
Michael Doughty (R) 35%

South Carolina:
Tim Scott (R) 77% (unopposed)

Lindsay Graham (R) 67% (unopposed)

Virginia:
Mark Warner (D) 57%
George Allen (R) 42%

West Virginia:
Shelly Moore Capito (R) 53%
Jay Rockefeller (D) 46%






John Suthers and Cory Gardner have a better chance beating Udall.
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2013, 03:04:07 am »
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%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%



No way that race would be that close. King would be lucky to break 45.
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Sawx, King in the North
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2013, 10:43:47 pm »
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Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%



No way that race would be that close. King would be lucky to break 45.
Harkin's out in 2014 anyways. So I guess Dems pray King wins or Latham doesn't run, but the Iowa race just got A LOT harder for them.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2013, 01:02:44 am »
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Alaska
55/41 Begich/Miller

Arkansas
58/42 Pryor/Darr

Colorado
58/42 Udall/Repub

Georgia
53/46 Handel/Dem

Hawaii
59/40 Schatz/Repub

Iowa
Huh Have no idea

Kentucky
53/47 McConnell/Dem

Louisiana
Huh Have no idea

Maine
70/30 Collins/Dem

Montana
60/38 Baucus/Repub

New Hampshire
60/38 Shaheen/Repub

New Jersey
62/37 Booker/Repub

North Carolina
54/46 Hagan/Tillis

South Carolina "Graham" Primary
63/37 Tea Party/Graham

South Carolina "Graham" General
54/46 Tea Party/Dem

South Carolina "Scott" General
59/41 Scott/Dem

South Dakota
51/49 Johnson/Rounds

Virginia
Warner (unopposed)

West Virginia
58/42 Capito/Dem (I don't think they get anybody good here)
« Last Edit: January 27, 2013, 01:04:30 am by psychicpanda »Logged
NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2013, 01:42:25 pm »
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Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%


Updating West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa
WV Shelly Moore Capito 61.3% Natalie Tennant 35.5%
IA Bruce Braley 50.4% Steve King 47.6%
GA Paul Broun 54% Stacey Abrams 42%
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dudeabides
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2013, 06:18:16 pm »
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Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%


Updating West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa
WV Shelly Moore Capito 61.3% Natalie Tennant 35.5%
IA Bruce Braley 50.4% Steve King 47.6%
GA Paul Broun 54% Stacey Abrams 42%
Same here;

West Virginia:
Shelley Moore Capito (R) 53%  Natalie Tennant (D) 46%

Iowa:
Steve King (R) 52%  Bruce Brailey (D) 47%

Georgia:
Casey Cagle (R) 57% Jason Carter (D) 41%
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2013, 06:27:40 pm »
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If King is the nominee, he loses unless the Democrats f**k-up unimaginably. It really is just that simple. I doubt he'll be the nominee, though, I think he understands his state can't elect him to the Senate and he's comfortable enough in the House. The same, in reverse, goes for Barrow, of course.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2013, 06:47:56 pm »
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2013, 05:57:57 am »
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Alabama-Richard Shelby 59% Dem 32%
Alaska- Mark Begich 50.3% Mead Treadwell 49.7%
Arkansas- Mark Pryor 53.4% Asa Hutchinson 46.6%
Colorado- Mark Udall 50.6% Scott Tipton 48.8%
Delaware, Chris Coons (unopposed
Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Idaho- Mike Crapo unopposed
Illinois- Richard Durbin 56% Aaron Shock 43.2%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
Kansas- Kevin Yoder 74%
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell 60% Andy Barr 39.9%
Louisana (Runoff) - John Fleming 50.7% Mary Landrieu 49.3%
Maine- Mike Michaud 39% Eliot Cutler 33% Michael Thibdeau 28%
Mass- Ed Markey 52% Scott Brown 48%
Michigan- Candice Miller 46.6% Jennifer Granholm 47.7%
Minnesota Al Franken 51.2% Michelle Bachmann 43%
Mississippi- Thad Cochran unopposed
Montana- Max Bacaus 50.1% Steve Daines 49.8%
Nebraska- Mike Johanns unopposed
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen 58% Jeb Bradley 41%
New Jersey -Cory Booker 54% Scott Garrett 45%
New Mexico- Tom Udall unopposed
North Carolina- Kay Hagan 50.3% Thomas Goolsby 49%
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe unopposed
Oregon- Jeff Merkely 55% Kevin Cameron 42%
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse unopposed
South Carolina "A"-(Primary) Lindsey Graham 44% Joe Wilson 51%
South Carolina "B"-Tim Scott 69% Vincent Sheheen 26%'
South Dakota Mike Rounds 56% Tim Johnson 43.4%
Tennessee- Diane Black- 57% Phil Breseden 41%
Texas- John Cornyn 69% Joaquin Castro 29%
Virginia-  Mark Warner 50.2% Bob McDonnell 49.6%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%
Wyoming- Mike Enzi unopposed

Finally adding Hawaii...
Primary-Brian Schatz 52.4% Colleen Hanabusa 47.6%
General- Brian Schatz 63% Charles Djou 33%
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2013, 10:37:42 pm »
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Arkansas
Tom Cotton 50.001%
Mark Pryor 48.901%
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What if in 2012, in this debate at the one minute mark, Governor Rick Perry had hit Governor Romney?  What would had happened, would the race had changed completely?  Find out in my new tl, based on one I had at one time, "The Punch Watched Around The World."
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2013, 10:40:38 pm »
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Arkansas
Tom Cotton 50.001%
Mark Pryor 48.901%


Yeah, if he does jump in that will probably 3 or less either way.
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2013, 10:41:40 pm »
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I think that this will be the closest race in the us in 2014.
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What if in 2012, in this debate at the one minute mark, Governor Rick Perry had hit Governor Romney?  What would had happened, would the race had changed completely?  Find out in my new tl, based on one I had at one time, "The Punch Watched Around The World."
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