2014 U.S. Senate race projections (user search)
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  2014 U.S. Senate race projections (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2014 U.S. Senate race projections  (Read 9626 times)
Donerail
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« on: January 06, 2013, 12:43:13 PM »

You're far underestimating Begich (especially against someone like Treadwell), Udall (especially against someone like Norton), and Democratic strength in Kentucky (where Democrats control almost all statewide offices) and Montana (where Baucus is leading "R" by 6 points and Schweitzer leads "R" by 8 points). South Carolina as well is iffy; Lindsey is all but certain to draw a primary challenger, and then who knows what kind of crazy a primary will spit out.
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Donerail
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2013, 03:21:50 PM »

SD, WVA, AK are gone and kay hagen, is suspect as well.

Begich isn't gone. Not by a long shot. He's stood up for Alaska on every issue that's important to the state, from pusing back on the pushing back on the EPA over Shell Oil's permitting battles to questioning the military's realignment of fighter jets to protecting Native 8(a) contracting to keeping Alaska's fisheries out of harm's way. He has surpassed al expectations. As an incumbent he has a huge advantage in fundraising and has been a prolific fundraiser since his days in the Anchorage Assembly, and will have big donor support now. There's also no plausible opponent. If Parnell challenges him, eh'd have to announce in 2013 to start raising money, but that'd mean the governorship will be open, setting off Republichaos. If Parnell doesn't, then you see any number of challengers run in a race-to-the-right ugly Republican primary, critically damaging the nominee, who then of course has to face Begich, who is a very intelligent man with no qualms about running a scorched earth campaign against any Republican. There is no challenger with the intelligence, moderation, and experience of Begich. He's an incredible politician, and just because he's fro a Republican state he isn't automatically beatable. He's been right on all the most important Alaskan issues, and if we're out of the storm in two years his vote on the stimulus won't matter (and when increased Obamacare benefits to seniors kick in in 2 years, you lose that attack as well). Begich will also have a ton of administration officials helping his campaign. Incumbents don't lose to challengers, they beat themselves, and Begich has no history of self-destruction. Alaska: Democratic hold.
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