Iraq in 2008

[Joe Biden 2020]

Will we have any troops home in 2008?  How big of an impact will it have on the race for the White House?  What will the situation be like in Iraq on that early November morning in 2008?

[Jake]

Until the Iran situation is "settled" and most likely until the Syria situation is "settled", I doubt US forces will be entirely out of Iraq. We've maintained 50,000 troops in Korea for over fifty years up until we reduced back a bit, so I wouldn't doubt us having around 30-50,000 troops in Iraq by fall 2008. A realistic time table would have the first large scale reduction of troops to the 90,000 range by fall 2006. By the next fall, maybe 60,000, and then 2008 will see further reducations down to the 30-50K figure. Expect GOP gains from these pullouts as Bush touts a the pullouts in 2006 and 2008.

As to the situation in Iraq, I expect some instability, but above all, there will be a democratic government and there will be Iraqi troops in large numbers patrolling the country.

[MODU]

The bulk of our forces will be home by 2008, with a standard rotation through key bases in Iraq/Afghanistan on an anual basis, just as we did with Korea, Japan, Germany, etc.

[nini2287]

It may be on to Iran in 2008, but if things go well Iraq will be a minor issue in 2008 (Saddam may be executed by then as well).

[MODU]

(Saddam may be executed by then as well).

Will that be on pay-per-view? 

[minionofmidas]

Ask me again in spring 2008.
What MODU and Jake are detailing is what I'd call the "best realistic scenario".

[chris allen]

Forget 2008! If Iraq is still in the headlines.....I feel bad for that GOP canidate.

[skybridge]

Iraq will still be a problem in 2008, but whether it will be an issue is another question. Assuming the question refers to whether Iraq will be an issue, with recruitment goals falling shorter as you read this, the draft could certainly become an issue. The weak Democratic candidate will want to make sure they don't flip-flop while at the same time not promise anything--in effect not taking a side on the issue while presenting it something like, "Well, if the necessity arises..." The Republicans, on the hand, will want to be even more sure in assuring the country that there will be no draft. Once decisiveness carries them to victory, they can always change their minds again...

[Erc]

A significant proportion (a third to a half) of our boys will be out of Iraq by October 2006.


By 2008, see the other sensible posters above.

[MODU]

Reading the news this morning about Iran, if Rafsanjani wins the election this year, we might see more changes in the Middle East.  If we can re-establish ties with Iran following Rafsanjani's proposed moderation, they can provide additional security on their own border, leaving the Iraqi's and Coalition troops to focus on the Syrian side of the country.  With that being the case, Iraq might quiet come 2007, and would not even be much of an issue in 2008 after all.