2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:12:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8]
Author Topic: 2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.  (Read 16231 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: May 31, 2005, 07:40:20 PM »

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

This is the list of Senators who recieved a 100% rating by the ACU, American Conservative Union, for 2004:

Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Conrad Burns (R-MT)
John Cornyn (R-TX)
James M. Inhofe (R-OK)
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Don Nickles (R-OK)
John E. Sununu (R-NH)
Craig Thomas (R-WY)

Note that Santorum's name is not in there.

Rick Santorum's ACU rating for 2004 was a 96 and he has a lifetime score of 90. While Conservative these numbers do not put him near the top of the pack.

I believe the ratings that they gave Sen. Jim Inhofe and Fmr. Sen. Don Nickles are true, maybe slightly overdoing it just a bit, but I would still rank both of them in the top 12.  I would rank Tom Coburn where Jim Inhofe is on that rating and move Jim Inhofe to where Don Nickles was in the 2004 ratings.

BTW, what month were these ratings conducted?  I was just wondering when the new ratings will come out.

Secular,

While I may be fairly conservative (I try to appeal to both the moderates and conservatives), I can see the liberal point of view.  Thats why I watch CNN mostly.  I can see your point of view.  Not trying to derogatively label you liberal, but just as a matter of my observance.  You have an equal right to your opinion on these matters as everybody else on this forum and those not on this forum.  I just hope you can respect other's point of views, from the left, middle, and right.  You don't have to agree with our positions, but at least respect them.  I do the same for everybody on this forum, regardless of party affiliation.

As has been said before, Welcome to the Forum!  Hope you find it a fun and invigorating (sp?) experience.  Thats what this forum is for, having fun.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: May 31, 2005, 08:18:14 PM »

Sununu, didn't know he had a 100%. Gawd that seems quite high for him.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: May 31, 2005, 08:30:15 PM »

OK, I’m not seeing any dissenting posts so the last time a Republican carried Pennsylvania was way back in ’88. Two decades ago is an awfully long time since the good voters of the state felt they could elect a Republican to the highest office in the land.

National politics have little bering on a state race, and if it did, I'd expect the Democrats to have won a majority of congressional seats, the Senate seat, and the state legislature in 2004. Obviously, the failed to. They don't elect a Republican Presidential candidate since 1988, yet the state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since the 1970s. Since this is a Senate race, ie, not a national race, I'd tend towards the prevailing trend.

Also this from Quinnipiac dated April 21:

“Gov. Rendell continues to hold a double-digit lead over any would-be GOP challenger and has to be considered a strong candidate for re- election even if his job approval rating has slipped below the magic 50 percent mark," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute”  

It goes on to note:

“Rendell deserves to be reelected, Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 38 percent”

Considering Rendell’s double digit leads and the fact that Bush was re-elected despite most polls showing a majority did not favor his re-election leads me to think that while voters are ready to turf Santorum out (15 point gap!!) they will keep the Governors Mansion in Democratic hands.  

All this means is that Rendell has sub-48% approval ratings and with an opponent like Castor, Rendell is in nearly as much trouble as Santorum is.

On a slightly different note, I think most would agree that anyone who uses derogatory terms such as “fag” are fairly big TROLLS who deserve to be treated with the utmost contempt  

What exactly is derogatory about me calling an obvious fag a fag. Is a duck not called a duck?
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: May 31, 2005, 08:33:41 PM »

All this means is that Rendell has sub-48% approval ratings and with an opponent like Castor, Rendell is in nearly as much trouble as Santorum is.

Jake, we can point this out all we want (and I'll continue to do it) but they'll never admit that. They see Rendell as an unbeatable force. They're right about Santorum and Rendell, we're always wrong. That's the way it works with them. I could actually see the 2006 races here in PA producing some interesting results such as a Casey win but a Rendell defeat. Now wouldn't that be something?
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: May 31, 2005, 08:40:30 PM »

Haha, what a night that would be Smiley  I still don't see Rendell losing unless a Castor/Swann or Castor/Pippy ticket happens. Then a good campaign could win it. I have a feeling Castor won't run and we'll end up sticking Scranton up there to big beaten Fisher style while putting the money into the senate race.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: May 31, 2005, 08:52:14 PM »

Haha, what a night that would be Smiley  I still don't see Rendell losing unless a Castor/Swann or Castor/Pippy ticket happens. Then a good campaign could win it. I have a feeling Castor won't run and we'll end up sticking Scranton up there to big beaten Fisher style while putting the money into the senate race.

If Scranton or Piccola are nominated, I might have to skip that race and I really don't want to have to do that. Either of those two would lose by ten points or more.

Rendell could lose against Swann and would be in a very tough race against Castor. One thing Castor has: a huge ego. He's most likely having polling done this very second. He said he wanted to see some numbers before jumping in. I know that's he's atleast considering it. Castor/Swann would probably be our best ticket, followed by Castor/Pippy.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: May 31, 2005, 08:57:47 PM »

I wouldn't doubt that he is. I think in a generic race between Swann and Rendell, Swann would lose aroun 54-46 or so. A big factor will be the Baker Knoll situation. Is she replaced, and by who.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: May 31, 2005, 09:00:18 PM »

I wouldn't doubt that he is. I think in a generic race between Swann and Rendell, Swann would lose aroun 54-46 or so. A big factor will be the Baker Knoll situation. Is she replaced, and by who.

Hafer is the most likely to run with Rendell though there is a rumor going around that Allegheny DA Steve Zappala might be running. Another big name is former State Senator Kuckovich.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: May 31, 2005, 09:59:45 PM »

Question for Keystone Phil

Who is that other individual you always have pictured with Santorum?  Is he running for something?  Just wondering.



Former Congressman Pat Toomey. He is the President of the Club for Growth and ran as a conservative alternative to Arlen Specter in the 2004 GOP Senate Primary here in PA. He just barely lost (51% to 49%). He'll be back to run for Senate in 2010 though! Smiley
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: May 31, 2005, 10:06:22 PM »

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

Didin't the National Journal rank kerry as the most liberal senator?  & I know you said months back that you didn't believe that Kerry was the most liberal, so why do you put so much faith into this one??
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: May 31, 2005, 10:09:49 PM »

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

Didin't the National Journal rank kerry as the most liberal senator?  & I know you said months back that you didn't believe that Kerry was the most liberal, so why do you put so much faith into this one??

I did say that I didn't believe it but if so many people believe Santorum is so far right, why isn't he atleast in the top 10?
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: May 31, 2005, 10:10:42 PM »


Thanks.  I hope he make it to the Senate in 2010.  It's quite a ways off though.  Perhaps you could go with him to DC as a Senate staffer if he wins.



I'd love that!  Smiley
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: May 31, 2005, 10:13:26 PM »

Sununu, didn't know he had a 100%. Gawd that seems quite high for him.

Sununu is fairly conservative, but he isn't as conservative as Santorum.  The problem with some of these ratings systems is their are rather selective in the votes that they use.  If I'm not mistaken the ACU uses something like 24 or 25 votes over a year span.  Kyl is someone else who I wouild say while being conservative is less conservative than Santorum.

This is wjat I would say is the top 10 as far as most conservative


1.  Coburn
2.  Bunning
3.  Inhofe
4.  Cornyn
5.  Demint
6  Santorum
7. Brownback
8.  Lott
9.  Frist
10.  Thomas


Edit forgot Brownback
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: May 31, 2005, 10:17:58 PM »

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

Didin't the National Journal rank kerry as the most liberal senator?  & I know you said months back that you didn't believe that Kerry was the most liberal, so why do you put so much faith into this one??

I did say that I didn't believe it but if so many people believe Santorum is so far right, why isn't he atleast in the top 10?

Because the way they do the ratings are pretty screwy.  In almost every other journal determining how liberal the Senators were Kerry wasn't in the top 10 in many of them (& barley in the top 10 in the ones he was) & Edwards usually ranked somewhere between 16-20, but they had them ranked 1 & 4
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: May 31, 2005, 10:20:26 PM »


Because the way they do the ratings are pretty screwy.  In almost every other journal determining how liberal the Senators were Kerry wasn't in the top 10 in many of them (& barley in the top 10 in the ones he was) & Edwards usually ranked somewhere between 16-20, but they had them ranked 1 & 4

So they're biased towards Santorum?
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: June 01, 2005, 12:02:32 AM »


Because the way they do the ratings are pretty screwy.  In almost every other journal determining how liberal the Senators were Kerry wasn't in the top 10 in many of them (& barley in the top 10 in the ones he was) & Edwards usually ranked somewhere between 16-20, but they had them ranked 1 & 4

So they're biased towards Santorum?

Did I say that?  No, My point was anyone that ranks Kerry & Edwards #1 & #4 most liberal, have some flaws in how they tally it
Logged
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: June 01, 2005, 08:19:50 PM »

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

This is the list of Senators who recieved a 100% rating by the ACU, American Conservative Union, for 2004:

Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Conrad Burns (R-MT)
John Cornyn (R-TX)
James M. Inhofe (R-OK)
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Don Nickles (R-OK)
John E. Sununu (R-NH)
Craig Thomas (R-WY)

Note that Santorum's name is not in there.

Rick Santorum's ACU rating for 2004 was a 96 and he has a lifetime score of 90. While Conservative these numbers do not put him near the top of the pack.

I believe the ratings that they gave Sen. Jim Inhofe and Fmr. Sen. Don Nickles are true, maybe slightly overdoing it just a bit, but I would still rank both of them in the top 12.  I would rank Tom Coburn where Jim Inhofe is on that rating and move Jim Inhofe to where Don Nickles was in the 2004 ratings.

BTW, what month were these ratings conducted?  I was just wondering when the new ratings will come out.

Secular,

While I may be fairly conservative (I try to appeal to both the moderates and conservatives), I can see the liberal point of view.  Thats why I watch CNN mostly.  I can see your point of view.  Not trying to derogatively label you liberal, but just as a matter of my observance.  You have an equal right to your opinion on these matters as everybody else on this forum and those not on this forum.  I just hope you can respect other's point of views, from the left, middle, and right.  You don't have to agree with our positions, but at least respect them.  I do the same for everybody on this forum, regardless of party affiliation.

As has been said before, Welcome to the Forum!  Hope you find it a fun and invigorating (sp?) experience.  Thats what this forum is for, having fun.

BushOklahoma, the ratings are published every year by the American Conservative Union according to the voting records. The people listed were not listed in any particular order. They all scored 100% in the ratings, which is the most conservative score.
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: June 02, 2005, 04:58:18 AM »

I guess we scared off Transgendered Politico for good.
Logged
Colin
ColinW
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,684
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: June 02, 2005, 03:37:56 PM »

Good for Senator Santorum, the mainstream compassionate conservative, steering a balanced,  moderate course, one that is fair to all Americans.

He is working to keep America from degenerating into a cesspool of immorality, debauchery and decadence.

America does not have to cow tow to the radical gay agenda, just because the raving looney left wingnuts say so.   
Are you on drugs?!?!

No, I just speak the truth, and some don't like to hear it.

Out of curiosity, are you a Freeper?

I'm not familiar with that term at all.

Please clarify.

Or not.

A freeper is a person who is a poster on the internet message board Free Republic.
Logged
Rob
Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,277
United States
Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -9.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: June 02, 2005, 05:40:57 PM »

I guess we scared off Transgendered Politico for good.

I certainly hope so!
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: June 02, 2005, 05:57:48 PM »

I guess we scared off Transgendered Politico for good.

Not exactly disappointed by that either.
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: June 05, 2005, 10:36:38 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2005, 11:38:28 PM by Winfield »

GOP 412 
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (Georgia)
Sen. Olympia Snowe (Maine)

Dem 126
Sen. Barbara Boxer (California)
Rep. Barney Frank (Massachusetts)

Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,509
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: June 05, 2005, 10:38:19 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2005, 11:41:35 PM by Frodo »

Conventional Wisdom (CW)Sad

The Democratic Party will nominate New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as its presidential nominee, who will in turn pick New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardon as her running-mate.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, will nominate Virginia Sen. George Allen, who could nominate South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford as his running-mate:

Clinton/Richardson -242
Allen/Sanford -296


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My prediction:

The Democratic Party will come to its senses by early 2008 (I hope), and decide to nominate either Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh or Virginia Gov. Mark Warner as its presidential nominee -I pick Evan Bayh, simply because he has had more experience both as a two-term governor and senator of a deeply Republican state.  Mark Warner could be his number one choice as his running-mate.

And I agree with CW on the Republican ticket:

Bayh/Warner -295
Allen/Sanford -243

 
Logged
Sarnstrom
sarnstrom54014
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 679


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: June 15, 2005, 08:36:45 PM »

Democrats- Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson 308-51%
Republicans- Bill Frist and Mitt Romney 230-47%

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 12 queries.