2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.

[AuH2O]

Bayh isn't THAT moderate. We're not talking about a Breaux or Nelson here... he would lose Kentucky by 15, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona handily, and probably Colorado.

And, actually, I think Bayh would lose a lot more than that-- he's very dull, got to where he is because of his name (not that that stopped W. but he has more personality). He's a potential landslide victim in the making.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Name a Democratic candidate you think would do good. All your predictions are so super-partisan I don't know why I should keep listening to them.

Do you honestly think someone like Frist would have the edge over Bayh? Do you think Bayh would lose Vermont?

[AuH2O]

Name a Democratic candidate you think would do good. All your predictions are so super-partisan I don't know why I should keep listening to them.

Do you honestly think someone like Frist would have the edge over Bayh? Do you think Bayh would lose Vermont?

a) at least I predicted who would win the election (and my popular vote guess was 1% off)-- not to mention getting only 1 Senate race wrong and calling some tough House races very well too. And, yeah, actually Bayh could lose Vermont, and about 48 other states. No one's lost 50 so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

b) maybe Bayh would have an edge over Frist, probably not-- they're very similar really. But the GOP isn't going to run Frist. Sure, Bayh would beat Don King, but Don King isn't going to be the nominee either so it's a moot point.

c) I've said numerous times Hillary would beat a weak GOP candidate, and that Bredesen has some potential. Ed Rendell would seriously worry me. Truth is, the Democrats have a weak bench because they've done poorly in Governor's races, and when they've won it hasn't been with Presidential material. They also have fewer Senators, and of course only some of them are legitimate options, and even then Senators usually lose.


note: my analysis factors in what a potential nominee will have to do in the Democratic Primary. Moderates are seriously weakened because of it, which is one reason I don't think much of Bayh's chances.. he'll turn into a flip-flopping robot, sort of like a Gore-Kerry combo. Or, for Democrats, "uh-oh."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are you actually saying Hillary is a better candidate than Bayh?

[AuH2O]

Are you actually saying Hillary is a better candidate than Bayh?

Yes. I'm not sure it's even close.

Why Democrats underestimate Hillary, I have no idea. They must understand she wants to be President, and they must understand she is a terrific politician.

I'd rather face her than Rendell but she's highly underrated.

[Moooooo]

AuH20, were you calling Bill Clinton a bad candidate back in 1992?

[AuH2O]

AuH20, were you calling Bill Clinton a bad candidate back in 1992?

I was, what, 8? I remember election night, humorously enough. We were in Disney World, I was already a Republican though in hindsight I don't like Bush Sr. CNN called it for Clinton and I asked my dad who he voted for, assuming Bush, so I was mad when he said (in a resigned voice) 'Clinton.' But then my mom was like "but you told me to vote for Perot!" So I was mad but the scene was funny.

On the topic, don't kid yourself: Evan Bayh is no Bill Clinton. Neither is Bredesen or Warner or Richardson, for that matter, but that's because there is only one, just like there's only one Reagan. At least the GOP has a couple Governors with glimmers of greatness. The Dems just need some competence.

[Moooooo]

AuH20, were you calling Bill Clinton a bad candidate back in 1992?

On the topic, don't kid yourself: Evan Bayh is no Bill Clinton. Neither is Bredesen or Warner or Richardson, for that matter, but that's because there is only one, just like there's only one Reagan. At least the GOP has a couple Governors with glimmers of greatness. The Dems just need some competence.

I wasnt comparing any of the 2008 potentials to Bill Clinton.  I wanted to see if you would shoot him down as a bad candidate too.

Who is on your list of good candidates,  Democrat and Republican?

[AuH2O]

AuH20, were you calling Bill Clinton a bad candidate back in 1992?

On the topic, don't kid yourself: Evan Bayh is no Bill Clinton. Neither is Bredesen or Warner or Richardson, for that matter, but that's because there is only one, just like there's only one Reagan. At least the GOP has a couple Governors with glimmers of greatness. The Dems just need some competence.

I wasnt comparing any of the 2008 potentials to Bill Clinton.  I wanted to see if you would shoot him down as a bad candidate too.

Who are on your list of good candidates,  Democrat and Republican?

I'm still working on my first charts for both parties, with my view of their odds of nomination and then grades on overall strength. The GOP one is almost done but it has to add up to 100%, so a few corrections still to be made.

Short lists, stratified-
GOP:

Sanford
Pawlenty
Allen

Huckabee
Johanns
Kyl

Romney
Santorum
Ehrlich

DNC:

Rendell
Bredesen

Clinton
Richardson

Cantwell
Biden


note: I have a better handle on the GOP so my Dem thoughts are preliminary, I'll have more in a week or two. Bredesen is probably a paper tiger but I'll take him seriously for now, at least until I've looked into him.

[Moooooo]

I agree with your short list of top Republican candidates for the most part.  Sanford worries me the most of any potential Republican nominee.  I just watched his state of the state address and he seems like a pretty charismatic and down to earth guy.  Pawlenty, I think hes a pretty good candidate, but not on the same level as Sanford.  Ill have to follow his re-election close and then I will be able to give a better judgement.  Allen is just as dull and boring as Evan Bayh, if not more.

Here is the video of Governor Mark Sanfords state of the state address for all you Sanford fans...

http://www.knowitall.org/sos-2005.asx

[Democratic Hawk]

Bayh isn't THAT moderate. We're not talking about a Breaux or Nelson here... he would lose Kentucky by 15, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona handily, and probably Colorado.

And, actually, I think Bayh would lose a lot more than that-- he's very dull, got to where he is because of his name (not that that stopped W. but he has more personality). He's a potential landslide victim in the making.

True Bayh has benefited in Indiana from being Birch Bayh's son but do you really think he could win landslide elections in Indiana if he was anything other than a political moderate because it seems that Indiana just doesn't elect liberals, like Birch, any more

He's the potential candidate that Republicans are scarred of. His success is partly down to being a guy who can cross-cut very effectively along both partisan and ideological lines. He might lack charisma but he'll be a safe pair of hands and isn't weak on national security, which is a charge that the GOP can level at many Democrats to their peril. I dare say there have been more US Presidents without charisma than with it and I, for one, don't see any of it in any great abundance in GWB

Dave

[opebo]

Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson  - 298
Rick Santorum/Norm Coleman - 240

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson  - 298
Rick Santorum/Norm Coleman - 240

PA and FL would almost definetley go to Santorum in this situation.

[opebo]

Jeb Bush/Rich Santorum        - 269
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson - 269

[Moooooo]

And we lose it in the house.  Do you know how pissed off I would be?

[ian]

Yes. I'm not sure it's even close.

Why Democrats underestimate Hillary, I have no idea. They must understand she wants to be President, and they must understand she is a terrific politician.

I'd rather face her than Rendell but she's highly underrated.

I feel the way you do about Hillary, about Bill Frist.  I am not sure why people think that he can't win.  The cat thing?  He'll deny it, and it is so unbelieveable no one will believe it.  I think he's you guys' best candidate.

[Moooooo]

I feel the way you do about Hillary, about Bill Frist.  I am not sure why people think that he can't win.  The cat thing?  He'll deny it, and it is so unbelieveable no one will believe it.  I think he's you guys' best candidate.

"That cat thing", he already admitted to doing it.

[ian]

Jeb Bush/Rich Santorum        - 269
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson - 269

269-269?  Those are not the numbers on the map...

[ian]

I feel the way you do about Hillary, about Bill Frist.  I am not sure why people think that he can't win.  The cat thing?  He'll deny it, and it is so unbelieveable no one will believe it.  I think he's you guys' best candidate.

"That cat thing", he already admitted to doing it.

Really?!  How does he still have his job?!?!

[AuH2O]

Nick, thanks for posting Sanford's SOTS.

On charisma: it's kind of a tough thing to judge. Allen at first doesn't seem too great, but everyone seems to like him. You could make the same argument in favor of Bayh, but I'm more sure he just doesn't have it.

The thing I like about Sanford and Pawlenty is that they are so well rounded... their wives are both assets (professionals that worked, one a lawyer one an investment banker I think, but then cut back and are raising kids- both attractive), they are young & smart, reformers, did better than expected in their elections to Governor, etc.

[opebo]

Jeb Bush/Rich Santorum        - 269
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson - 269

269-269?  Those are not the numbers on the map...

I  believe they are.  Anyway that is what the calculator says.

[ian]

Jeb Bush/Rich Santorum        - 269
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson - 269

269-269?  Those are not the numbers on the map...

I  believe they are.  Anyway that is what the calculator says.

Yeah.  I got confuzed yesterday, thinking that Kerry won the majority of the electoral vote, and I could not comprehend why adding Nevada, Iowa, and New Mexico wasn't more than 269.  Stupid, I know, but a dumb mistake...

[Moooooo]

bump...

[tarheel-leftist85]

Allen/Sanford--213 (49.4%)
Warner/Bayh--325 (49.7%)



I think if we can knock off Hillary, Warner will probably choose Bayh as his running mate (as opposed to my pic, Blanche Lincoln).  I still don't like the idea of not winning a Southern state--uncharted territory.  But perhaps 2012 will confer a couple of real southern states (VA, AR, NC) to Warner-Bayh.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Hillary/Richardson--195 (47%)
Allen/Sanford--343 (52%)

Now, that I had the conviction and common-sense to show two types of scenarios, I challenge a Republican to do the same.  Of course, they won't; or they'll show a farce (Hillary/ Ted "Chappaquiddick" Kennedy sweeping the floor).  Expect 10 Republicans after me to reject my "Warner/Allen" map.  They know he's formidable candidate.  At least I'm not afraid to admit that Frist or Allen would be formidable candidates.