2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.

[Keystone Phil]

Republican ticket -   Rick Santorum (PA)
                                Bill Owens (CO)

Democratic ticket -   Hillary Clinton (NY)
                                Joe Biden (DE)




Santorum/Owens - 307

Clinton/Biden - 231

[Keystone Phil]

Ive talked to a couple people on different boards that either live in South Carolina or follow South Carolina politics and they say Sanford isnt all he is cracked up to be.  They say he hasnt done much of anything since he became Governor and the South Carolina GOP keep losing seats.  Anyone from South Carolina wanna' fill me in on how well he is doing down there?

Ernest said he's pretty much a lock for re-election. Check out the Gubernatorial board.

[Keystone Phil]

I look forward to looking at this post 3 years from now and hitting myself over the head at how wrong I was.  But no harm in trying

The 2008 Election:
After a bitter Primary Fight between the moderates and more extreme members in both parties, Evan Bayh and Bill Frist emerged as the Presidential Nominees for the 2008 Presidential Election. 

For the Democrats, Bayh faced a tough uphill challenge against Senators Clinton, Kerry and Edwards, but after his win in Iowa emerged from the other random smattering of candidates as the frontrunner.  In New Hampshire, Clinton/Kerry won the state, with Bayh winning second/third.  As the primaries rolled onwards, Bayh won the midwest, with Edwards/Warner winning the south, and Clinton/Kerry winning in the North East.  However, eventually Bayh came out on top, beating Clinton in several key Super Tuesday States, including California (unless they move it back as they're saying they might).  Leftist Democrats are furious with Bayh's nomination, vowing to vote for Ralph Nader who runs for a fourth time.  The selection of Bill Richardson as VP calms some of this outrage, but Nader still gets at least double the number of votes he got in 2004, swinging NH to Frist.

Meanwhile, with the Republicans, lots of craziness happens with Rudy and Romney and Frist and Gingrich, but Frist eventually pulls on top as the establishment candidate.  Wary of a double Senator ticket, and eager to continue a Bush dynasty, Republicans choose Jeb Bush to be the VP.

Various scandals come out, Richardson's involvement with some Clinton thing or whatever being the most serious.  However, the Latino vote comes out in force for the Democratic ticket, but not enough to swing any of the South Eastern states.  In the end, these are the results



Evan Bayh (D-IN) / Bill Richardson (D-NM): 286
Bill Frist (R-TN) / Jeb Bush (R-FL): 252

Richardson couldn't carry NM for Bayh?

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson  - 298
Rick Santorum/Norm Coleman - 240

PA and FL would almost definetley go to Santorum in this situation.

[Keystone Phil]

His extremist views would be out of kilter even in a number of GOP states such as Nevada, Arizona etc. let alone Democratic trending Pennsylvania! 

Do we have any more intelligent people visit the forums these days?

[Keystone Phil]

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

[Keystone Phil]

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

[Keystone Phil]

All this means is that Rendell has sub-48% approval ratings and with an opponent like Castor, Rendell is in nearly as much trouble as Santorum is.

Jake, we can point this out all we want (and I'll continue to do it) but they'll never admit that. They see Rendell as an unbeatable force. They're right about Santorum and Rendell, we're always wrong. That's the way it works with them. I could actually see the 2006 races here in PA producing some interesting results such as a Casey win but a Rendell defeat. Now wouldn't that be something?

[Keystone Phil]

Haha, what a night that would be   I still don't see Rendell losing unless a Castor/Swann or Castor/Pippy ticket happens. Then a good campaign could win it. I have a feeling Castor won't run and we'll end up sticking Scranton up there to big beaten Fisher style while putting the money into the senate race.

If Scranton or Piccola are nominated, I might have to skip that race and I really don't want to have to do that. Either of those two would lose by ten points or more.

Rendell could lose against Swann and would be in a very tough race against Castor. One thing Castor has: a huge ego. He's most likely having polling done this very second. He said he wanted to see some numbers before jumping in. I know that's he's atleast considering it. Castor/Swann would probably be our best ticket, followed by Castor/Pippy.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't doubt that he is. I think in a generic race between Swann and Rendell, Swann would lose aroun 54-46 or so. A big factor will be the Baker Knoll situation. Is she replaced, and by who.

Hafer is the most likely to run with Rendell though there is a rumor going around that Allegheny DA Steve Zappala might be running. Another big name is former State Senator Kuckovich.

[Keystone Phil]

Question for Keystone Phil

Who is that other individual you always have pictured with Santorum?  Is he running for something?  Just wondering.

Former Congressman Pat Toomey. He is the President of the Club for Growth and ran as a conservative alternative to Arlen Specter in the 2004 GOP Senate Primary here in PA. He just barely lost (51% to 49%). He'll be back to run for Senate in 2010 though!

[Keystone Phil]

He has a point. Santorum is not nearly as right-wing as some people like to pretend.

They'll never accept that...

He is possily one of the top 5 & definatle in the top 10 of most conservative Senators

I'm not one to go by what the National Journal ratings are word for word but I do believe they come close in their analysis. What would you say about this - http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/2/11/154627/855  Santorum's not even in the top 10. If someone's so obviously conservative and one of the most conservative in the Senate, why isn't he there?

Didin't the National Journal rank kerry as the most liberal senator?  & I know you said months back that you didn't believe that Kerry was the most liberal, so why do you put so much faith into this one??

I did say that I didn't believe it but if so many people believe Santorum is so far right, why isn't he atleast in the top 10?

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks.  I hope he make it to the Senate in 2010.  It's quite a ways off though.  Perhaps you could go with him to DC as a Senate staffer if he wins.

I'd love that! 

[Keystone Phil]

Because the way they do the ratings are pretty screwy.  In almost every other journal determining how liberal the Senators were Kerry wasn't in the top 10 in many of them (& barley in the top 10 in the ones he was) & Edwards usually ranked somewhere between 16-20, but they had them ranked 1 & 4

So they're biased towards Santorum?