2008 Predictions... just for the hell of it.

[Jake]

Mark Sanford  (R) NC  302   53%
Rick Santorum (R) PA

Bill Richardson (D) NM 236  45%
Russ Feingold   (D) WI

[Jake]

Now, that I had the conviction and common-sense to show two types of scenarios, I challenge a Republican to do the same.  Of course, they won't; or they'll show a farce (Hillary/ Ted "Chappaquiddick" Kennedy sweeping the floor).  Expect 10 Republicans after me to reject my "Warner/Allen" map.  They know he's formidable candidate.  At least I'm not afraid to admit that Frist or Allen would be formidable candidates.

And Guiliani would kick ass too except neither Warner or Guiliani will be nominated. Plus, Frist is the worst GOP candidate with a shot to be elected. He's Kerry with less charisma.

[Jake]

I'm not going to offer any "fantasy" predictions but one thing that should be factored into all these projections is that Rick Santorum is likely to get a well deserved hiding in the 2006 mid-term elections and sent packing from Capitol Hill.     

That will kill stone dead any hopes he or his merry band of far right followers have of him appearing on the national GOP ticket in 2008. 

By '08 he will be a political has-been with his unsavoury stint as a Seantor nothing more than a bad memory for moderate and liberal politicos.

All the polls show him trailing likely Democratic challenger Bob Casey. The latest one I have seen shows Casey opening up a 15 point lead against the bigoted junior senator from Pennsylvania. 

His extremist views would be out of kilter even in a number of GOP states such as Nevada, Arizona etc. let alone Democratic trending Pennsylvania! 

Anyways I look forward to him being finally turfed out and brought to book for his obnoxious pronouncements on a whole raft of social issues, particularly on LGBT rights.   

I expect the same thing to happen to the equally bigoted but more opportunistic Mitt Romney in the Governors race in Massachusetts, providing of course he has the guts to face the voters of the state he ridiculed and insulted recently while pandering to the homophobic base of his national party.   

Like his ideological soul-mate Santorum, this should bring his White House ambitions also to a crashing halt.

Santorum and Romneys defeats and a big re-election win for Hillary in NY will be the '06 highlights for me!     

Roll on the elections....

Who advertised on DU? Did we need another Smash who has even less knowledge of PA politics? The biggest joke is PA trending Democrat. Based on what again? The GOP holding a solid majority in the state legislature? The GOP holding a majority of congressional seats? The GOP holding both Senate seats? No Democrat having won a Senate race since the 70s if that? Even you should know that polls taken 20 months before the election matter as much as the last Zogby poll in TN. You must be a fag to, filled with hate at people who have the balls to face off against the radical gay agenda.

[Jake]

His extremist views would be out of kilter even in a number of GOP states such as Nevada, Arizona etc. let alone Democratic trending Pennsylvania! 

Do we have any more intelligent people visit the forums these days?

LOL, I called him out on that earlier Transgendered Politico has yet to respond.

[Jake]

Jake:

Some of us are actually too busy to reply instantly to comments posted on web forums. It’s called having a life, though I doubt you have much experience of that. Anyways, I have a general policy of not humoring dumb asses who can’t string a coherent sentence together. Intelligent debate tends to be lost on such people so I don’t find it all that productive.  That’s especially true when dealing with a homophobic dumb ass such as your good self. 

Most people would count dumbass to mean people who lack the knowledge to realize Pennsylvania is far from trending Democrat. Get a clue.

[Jake]

Dear oh dear looks like I have ruffled your precious feathers Bob. But I think I will ignore your “friendly” advice. I’m having far too much fun winding you up for starters and clearly having the desired effect! LOL     

BTW just a general question I would like to throw out. I don’t want to address it individually for fear of humoring a certain dumbass. Anyways, when was the last time a Republican carried Pennsylvania in a Presidential Election? I’m thinking two decades ago, 1988 to be precise, but then I could be wrong. 

I would also think that a popular Democratic Governor and a struggling junior Republican Senator facing the chop indicates a state trending Democratic.   

Rendell is popular? LOL 48% or some such for approval. Act 72 just got shot down by 75% of all school districts. Rendell is certainly not popular. Santorum is facing a popular State Treausurer, one with dubious campaigning skills, and is losing to a well known name 18 months out. I wouldn't begin the party just yet. This thread will be the "I'll Now Accept my Accolades" of 2006 though. To think that holding the Governor's mansion and seven congressional seats while the other party holds two Senate seats, 12 congressional seats, and the majority in both houses of the legislature means it is trending that way is a serious joke. Not suprising that you don't understand it though.

FWIW, "winding someone up" to get a rise out of them is the first mark of a troll.

[Jake]

I'd bet he is, we've had a large increase in the parrots of both sides arriving lately. Another reason not to advertise ourselves elsewhere.

[Jake]

Sununu, didn't know he had a 100%. Gawd that seems quite high for him.

[Jake]

OK, I’m not seeing any dissenting posts so the last time a Republican carried Pennsylvania was way back in ’88. Two decades ago is an awfully long time since the good voters of the state felt they could elect a Republican to the highest office in the land.

National politics have little bering on a state race, and if it did, I'd expect the Democrats to have won a majority of congressional seats, the Senate seat, and the state legislature in 2004. Obviously, the failed to. They don't elect a Republican Presidential candidate since 1988, yet the state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since the 1970s. Since this is a Senate race, ie, not a national race, I'd tend towards the prevailing trend.

Also this from Quinnipiac dated April 21:

“Gov. Rendell continues to hold a double-digit lead over any would-be GOP challenger and has to be considered a strong candidate for re- election even if his job approval rating has slipped below the magic 50 percent mark," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute”  

It goes on to note:

“Rendell deserves to be reelected, Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 38 percent”

Considering Rendell’s double digit leads and the fact that Bush was re-elected despite most polls showing a majority did not favor his re-election leads me to think that while voters are ready to turf Santorum out (15 point gap!!) they will keep the Governors Mansion in Democratic hands.  

All this means is that Rendell has sub-48% approval ratings and with an opponent like Castor, Rendell is in nearly as much trouble as Santorum is.

On a slightly different note, I think most would agree that anyone who uses derogatory terms such as “fag” are fairly big TROLLS who deserve to be treated with the utmost contempt  

What exactly is derogatory about me calling an obvious fag a fag. Is a duck not called a duck?

[Jake]

Haha, what a night that would be   I still don't see Rendell losing unless a Castor/Swann or Castor/Pippy ticket happens. Then a good campaign could win it. I have a feeling Castor won't run and we'll end up sticking Scranton up there to big beaten Fisher style while putting the money into the senate race.

[Jake]

I wouldn't doubt that he is. I think in a generic race between Swann and Rendell, Swann would lose aroun 54-46 or so. A big factor will be the Baker Knoll situation. Is she replaced, and by who.

[Jake]

I guess we scared off Transgendered Politico for good.

Not exactly disappointed by that either.