who is going to win?

[WalterMitty]

ok, forget about the hundreds of scenarios and put away your partisan feelings for a moment.  tell me straight up who you believe will win in november--bush or kerry?

remember no scenarios or things like that...just your gut feeling.

[ShapeShifter]

gut feeling, in all honesty, bush.

it makes me want to throw up

there is always hope.

and let me explain my gut feeling, 9-11

everyone is so focused on terrorism, 9-11

it is today hot topic

[Kodratos]

A month ago, I would have said Kerry. Now? Definately Bush

[Beet]

Bush. The economy is in expansion and he's the incumbent. No disaster-- no upset. Very simple.

1932, 1980, and 1992 were exceptionally bad times in this country. In my view, and of most Americans, in 2004, we are decidedly heading in the wrong direction. However in 1932, 1980 and 1992, this feeling was shared overwhelmingly by members of both parties. Not that a surprise isn't possible... convention wisdom indicated a Gore landslide in 2000. In reality all depends on having the right platform, the right demeanor, and the right support.

[angus]

my gut feeling is that sometime around November 2, 2004, or maybe a few days before, the New York Yankees will win the World Series.  And Alex Rodriguez will be the MVP.  

           

[Kodratos]

my gut feeling is that sometime around November 2, 2004, or maybe a few days before, the New York Yankees will win the World Series.  And Alex Rodriguez will be the MVP.  

           

God I hope not!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

ok, forget about the hundreds of scenarios and put away your partisan feelings for a moment.  tell me straight up who you believe will win in november--bush or kerry?

remember no scenarios or things like that...just your gut feeling.

My gut feeling says Bush.

My analytical side says it's still up the air.

And there's part of me that says, a year ago Bush was a slam dunk, today it's a toss-up, and there's still a lot that can happen between now and November.

[12th Doctor]

Kerry has already shot himself in te head.  Bush will win.  It will be close probably.  He won't get more than 330 EV's or so.

[ShapeShifter]

Kerry has already shot himself in te head.  Bush will win.  It will be close probably.  He won't get more than 330 EV's or so.

i guess you could not put your partisan feelings to the side.

[12th Doctor]

Kerry has already shot himself in te head.  Bush will win.  It will be close probably.  He won't get more than 330 EV's or so.

i guess you could not put your partisan feelings to the side.

No, I'm looking at this objectivly.  Any serious analyist of Poli. Sci. will tell you that Kerry has made some tremendous mistakes ALREADY, that's not to mention what is likely to happen in the future.  Kerry may make fewer mistakes and Bush my make some, but in the end, Kerry has a pretty good head start on Bush.

[agcatter]

almost impossible to predict because it depends on events - if terrorists strike Bush will win with little trouble - if not it will be pretty close.

[Apostle]

I think that it will be close but i think that Bush will win by a nose and have another term in office.

[StevenNick]

ok, forget about the hundreds of scenarios and put away your partisan feelings for a moment.  tell me straight up who you believe will win in november--bush or kerry?

remember no scenarios or things like that...just your gut feeling.

My gut feeling says Bush.

My analytical side says it's still up the air.

And there's part of me that says, a year ago Bush was a slam dunk, today it's a toss-up, and there's still a lot that can happen between now and November.

My gut and my analytical side both say Bush will win.  I don't think it will be close at all.

The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll had some illuminating pieces of information in it.  For one thing, Bush has gained 12 points in two weeks.  Since rolling out the attack ads against Kerry, Bush has gone from being 28 points behind in the swing states to 6 points ahead.  On top of that, Bush's approval ratings have held steady at 53% while Kerry's negatives have jumped 10 points.  The writing's on the wall:  It's Bush in November.

[Kghadial]

If I interpret what Vorlon has said about Gallup, this is rather meaningless.

The way Gallup does turnout predictions is very based on 'excitement'. The 59% of the polled that seem most likely to vote are the poll answers that are counted.  During the Dem primaries Republicans were obviously less excited and far more demoralized then the democrats. Thus the huge Kerry lead in Gallup. Now this Gallup with excited Republicans, since the Bush slander machine has turned on, and demoralized Democrats since our candidate was on vacation and not slamming Bush anymore.

Considering a four point lead in this light leads me to see it that the country is currently still split evenly. We will see dem excitement spikes in the Gallup Kerry picks a VP, during the Democratic Convention. For the republicans during the Olympics (since dems like foreigners more we are more likely to be absorbed for two weeks by it), and during their convention.  I really wouldn't read too much into gallup's polls until late September.

Considering that undecideds go to the challenger, and that Kerry finishes strong I say that Kerry will win by enough that we won't need a recount.

[Fritz]

Seriously, all partisan feelings aside, I believe Kerry will win.

Sometime in 2003 (before the Democrats had a nominee), I devised the following logic for this election:

Bush needs two things: to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and thus justify the war, and the economy- specifically jobs- to improve.

If both things happen, Bush will win, no contest.

If neither occurs, the Democrats could nominate Micky Mouse, and the mouse would win.

If one happens and the other does not, it will be extremely close, and could go either way.

Since then, the Administration has admitted there are no WMD, and really has no justification for the war at all.  Why everyone lets this go so easily is beyond me.

Jobs have not gotten better, either.

Bush is a failure both in foriegn policy and domestically.  It will be closer than I imagined last year (Micky Mouse would lose), but I don't see Bush as having a prayer.  If he could have pulled off either point 1 or point 2, I would have given him a chance.

[Rococo4]

ok, forget about the hundreds of scenarios and put away your partisan feelings for a moment.  tell me straight up who you believe will win in november--bush or kerry?

remember no scenarios or things like that...just your gut feeling.

My gut feeling says Bush.

My analytical side says it's still up the air.

And there's part of me that says, a year ago Bush was a slam dunk, today it's a toss-up, and there's still a lot that can happen between now and November.

It could go either way I guess, but I think Bush will win.  But something will happen between today and Nov 2 that have a major impact - something none of us are discussing today.  I dont know what it will be either.  I believe Bush could have been beaten.  The Democrats did not have a strong enough candidate in my opinion.  

However, after saying that, this election will be won with 310-325 EVs.  I think Bush, but if Kerry did, I wouldnt be shocked.

[Gustaf]

Bush. Basically, if the election was held today I think Kerry would win due to incumbency effect and Nader being overestimated in polls. But by election day Kerry's weaknesses as a candidate will be apparent and the economy might have improved some. Also, the Bush campaign will have made its impact. And foreign policy stuff will probably help Bush almost no matter what.

[dunn]

Bush-41 lost because of a bad economy and violation of his tax pledge.

and Perot

[Gustaf]

If the situation remains static (no major terrorist attack in the US; Iraq does not get worse; economy does not tank in the 3Q) President Bush will win re-election by a modest EV margin. If some major terrorist event occurs or the economy takes a major change for the worse then all bets are off. Still, the powers of the incumbency are compelling. Bush-41 lost because of a bad economy and violation of his tax pledge. Carter because of the hostage mess (and other things) and other than that you have to go all the way back to Hoover. Gee, I wonder why he lost?

Nope, if the situation remains static Kerry wins, I think. But I don't think it will remain static. Bush is certainly not ensured a win if nothing happens from now on.

[The Vorlon]

Bush is marginally ahead - but it is a very fragile marginally ahead...

Right Track / Wrong track polling shows -10 towards the wrong track side, normally that makes Bush roadkill.....

308,000 new jobs last month, if the trend holds Bush..., if not Kerry

It's the economy stupid!

[Gustaf]

Bush is marginally ahead - but it is a very fragile marginally ahead...

Right Track / Wrong track polling shows -10 towards the wrong track side, normally that makes Bush roadkill.....

308,000 new jobs last month, if the trend holds Bush..., if not Kerry

It's the economy stupid!

I think the incumbency rule and 'benefit of the doubt' means that if the country is exactly as it is now in November Kerry wins.

[dunn]

Bush-41 lost because of a bad economy and violation of his tax pledge.

and Perot

Right!

[© tweed]

Clinton would have won anyway had Perot not run.

[dunn]

Clinton would have won anyway had Perot not run.

we had that one before
i don't think so

[© tweed]

Clinton would have won anyway had Perot not run.

we had that one before
i don't think so

Even if the following states swung (and this is being VERY generous to Bush), Clinton would still have won:

CO (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 8
GA (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 13
KY (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 8
MT (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 3
NH (a Bush 88 and almost-Bush 92 state): 4
NV (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 4
LA (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 9
ME (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 4
NJ (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 15
OH (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 21

Clinton/Gore 281
Bush/Quayle 257