Why are the Rockies swinging Dem?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's not forget that 2000 was a horrible year for Democrats in the Mountain West. Look, just look at the 1996-2000 trend map:



As much as Democrats might have gained from 2004 on, they aren't even close to their pre-2000 levels there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona are still very Republican states, it is similar in the way your map shows parts of Massachusetts trending Republican, it is just because those places are so Democratic to begin with.

Colorado and New Mexico are different stories.

2nd, alot of transplants that move to CO are probably Democrat, and from California and the east coast.

What are you, a broken record?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oldies' post and Antonio's are both very true.

Let's not forget that 2000 was a horrible year for Democrats in the Mountain West. Look, just look at the 1996-2000 trend map:



As much as Democrats might have gained from 2004 on, they aren't even close to their pre-2000 levels there.

I checked Clinton's raw 1996 numbers to see if the issue was Perot and it doesn't appear to be (mainly) that:

Trend in Dem%:

CO   5.26%
MT   -1.33%
ID   -3.05%
AZ   -3.87%
NM   -8.14%
UT   -10.41%
WY   -10.82%

I don't understand how you got these numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oldies' post and Antonio's are both very true.

Let's not forget that 2000 was a horrible year for Democrats in the Mountain West. Look, just look at the 1996-2000 trend map:



As much as Democrats might have gained from 2004 on, they aren't even close to their pre-2000 levels there.

I checked Clinton's raw 1996 numbers to see if the issue was Perot and it doesn't appear to be (mainly) that:

Trend in Dem%:

CO   5.26%
MT   -1.33%
ID   -3.05%
AZ   -3.87%
NM   -8.14%
UT   -10.41%
WY   -10.82%

I don't understand how you got these numbers.

Modified trend. I used the raw Dem % in 1996 and 2012 rather than margin for the swing. Then I subtracted 1.8% (Obama 2012 national - Clinton 1996 national) for the trend.

Ah, I see. Good job!

You got NM, wrong though. Fixed it and added a few neighboring States for comparison.

NV +6.63%
CO +5.26%
NM +2.01%
NE +1.28%
KS +0.11%
MT -1.33%
ID -3.05%
ND -3.23%
AZ -3.87%
SD -4.96%
UT -10.41%
WY -10.82%

Translated on a map, with 2.5% increments (ie, the normal trend scale).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, here is the 1988-2008 trend (normal Atlas calculation method).

Considering the West further trended R in 2012, you can see just how much ground has been lost...

[Antonio the Sixth]

True... here's 1984.

It might make little sense to go that far, but Perot in the 1990s screws everything.