What would a Christie vs. Clinton electoral map look like right now?
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  What would a Christie vs. Clinton electoral map look like right now?
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Author Topic: What would a Christie vs. Clinton electoral map look like right now?  (Read 6270 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: January 10, 2013, 08:48:28 PM »

Assume that PPP's 2 point lead for Clinton is accurate:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167584.0

Now pretend that they magically decide to poll all 50 states with that matchup this weekend.  What does the electoral map look like?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2013, 10:00:38 PM »
« Edited: January 11, 2013, 08:36:01 PM by jerryarkansas »



Blue Christie 137
Red Clinton 164
Green Tossup (within 10 points) 237
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2013, 10:52:47 PM »

That's an awfully risky guess, Mr. Arkansas.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2013, 10:55:11 PM »

That's an awfully risky guess, Mr. Arkansas.
I know it is, but I think that both candidates are the strongest person that the parties can nominate.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2013, 11:19:42 PM »

I'll be a bit bolder. Wink



I'll take it a step further and do a no toss-up map!

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dudeabides
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2013, 11:20:30 PM »

Clinton (D) 245 EV
Christie (R) 206 EV
Toss-Up 87 EV



Issue is, HILLARY WON'T RUN!
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2013, 11:36:21 PM »

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bedstuy
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2013, 04:27:27 AM »



I really don't see Christie coming all that close in New Jersey or Hillary in Arkansas. 
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2013, 05:56:40 AM »

PPP had Hillary leading by 12 or so in NJ.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2013, 08:09:32 AM »
« Edited: January 11, 2013, 08:12:22 AM by Shadowlord88 »



Assuming it was that close, I'd be skeptical of a Hillary win in Arkansas or a Christie win in New Jersey.  
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2013, 11:37:41 AM »

Any polls for Arkansas?
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2013, 01:27:09 PM »


Hit the nail on the head.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2013, 01:36:37 PM »

Clinton would win Arkansas.
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BluegrassBlueVote
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« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2013, 01:37:59 PM »

I don't think Hillary has a chance in Arkansas, nor Christie in Jersey.

Christie is Hillary's only scare in a general election (as of Jan. 11, 2013, of course), and he could pull off a win in a favorable climate for Republicans. I'm sure the Clinton camp is well aware of this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2013, 01:38:45 PM »

What Bluegrass said WRT home states.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2013, 04:26:30 PM »

Arkansas will be close with Clinton. Will she win it?...Im not sure, Can she...Yes.

New Jersey will be tighter then it was in 2012 but I think she holds it as a "lean dem" state, not a toss up in the end. It may start out as looking competitive but Christie will have to focus on other must wins and that may mean he comes up short. It will be like Pennsylvania has been to the republicans the last few elections.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #16 on: January 11, 2013, 08:39:43 PM »



Blue Christie 137
Red Clinton 164
Green Tossup (within 10 points) 237

Here is my no toss up map


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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2013, 08:56:47 PM »



Blue Christie 137
Red Clinton 164
Green Tossup (within 10 points) 237

Here is my no toss up map




I (more or less) agree with the toss-up map, but not at all with the 2nd one: Christie is not winning NJ and PA when Clinton is carrying MT, AZ and MO.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2013, 08:59:56 PM »

I (more or less) agree with the toss-up map, but not at all with the 2nd one: Christie is not winning NJ and PA when Clinton is carrying MT, AZ and MO.

I think that Hillary will pick vp from out west while christie will be able to concect to working class whites in the mid west.
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badgate
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« Reply #19 on: January 11, 2013, 09:12:51 PM »

^Clinton/Carmona?
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Cory
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« Reply #20 on: January 11, 2013, 09:13:40 PM »

Campaign map:



Election night:

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2013, 09:38:34 PM »

I (more or less) agree with the toss-up map, but not at all with the 2nd one: Christie is not winning NJ and PA when Clinton is carrying MT, AZ and MO.

I think that Hillary will pick vp from out west while christie will be able to concect to working class whites in the mid west.

Of course, the question in the OP is about what the polling would look like *right now*, not after VPs are selected.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2013, 09:57:21 PM »

your right, she is also well liked out west
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2013, 02:07:37 AM »



Christie - 286 EV 48% PV
Clinton - 252 EV 50% PV

An awful lot could change, but if I had to make a map now for 2016 between these two, this would be it.  Clinton wins the popular vote, but Christie wins the electoral vote.

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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2013, 12:59:17 PM »

Pennsylvania would certainly be close (Christie would improve over Romney in the Philly suburbs, including Philadelphia itself, and along the Delaware river, while Hillary would do much better than Obama in the west), but I don't see it voting 2% more Republican than the national margin.
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